Flynnie’s Forecheck by RFlynn710
As we try to find our edge in Pick ‘Em on DK, I have been playing with different numbers to find the best predictors of success. Well, as predictable as DFS NHL can be.
I have been using team Corsi For (CF/60), team Corsi Against (CA/60), total CF and CA for individual players, blocked shots + shots on goal (BS+SOG) in the last ten games, total points (goals + assists) in the last 10. They seen to have put us on a lot of solid plays so far but today I want to try a new stat. Individual CF (iCF/60) per 60 minutes played. I think this will give us a better idea of how each player is performing instead of using a raw total number. No guarantees but I’m going to try it out for a few slates and if it sucks let me know. I don’t want to lead you in the wrong direction. I will point out where each tier stacks up and who is having the most success.
If you want to look at the raw numbers get in the DFS Army and look at Jim Keenan’s (@rk101785) chart breakdown in Slack. We also have terrific coaches and contributors for Classic NHL on FD and DK.
As you know, nothing is a guarantee in NHL DFS except wild swings of highs and lows. Even cash games are frustrating at times. It’s a season long grind.
All my numbers come from RG, Corsica.hockey, Left Wing Lock or Vegas Insider for the money lines. If you need any explanation or just want to say hi feel free to DM me or tag me in Slack. Also follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and if it’s your first time reading this and you like it, join the DFS Army https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/32/.
We have 4 games and eight tiers tonight.
TOR (2.91) @ CAR-118 (3.09)
NSH (2.56 )@ STL -133 (2.92)
LAK @ ARI
CGY (2.85) @ DAL -127 (3.15)
Tier 1
Tarasenko (1/PP1)
Gaudreau (1/PP1)
Matthews (1/PP2)
Kopitar (1/PP1)
For anyone who has been reading my article for a little while now, this will come as a huge shock: I love Tarasenko tonight! He leads the tier in iCF/60 and BS+SOG by a mile and he’s only four points behind Gaudreau for the scoring lead in the tier. The CGY1 stack is always in play but Dallas is solid defensively and there are better spots to go. Matthews might be the chalk but CAR is in the top 5 in CF and CA and I don’t think many people realize just how talented they are.
Tier 2
Forsberg (1/PP1)
Seguin (2/PP1)
Benn (1/PP1)
Monahan (1/PP1)
Monahan leads the tier in scoring and BS+SOG. But my favorite is Seguin. He has the best iCF/60 in the tier and more importantly he will be matched up with one of the worst CA lines in the league in the 3M Calgary line and he’s on the top PP unit going against the worst PK unit in the league.
Tier 3
Schenn (1/PP1)
Josi (PP2)
Teravainen (1/PP1)
Radulov (1/PP1)
This tier is one to rotate through if you’re making multiple teams. Schenn is always a great correlation with Tarasenko and they will mainly be matched up with the NSH 1 line (Forsberg, Arvidsson and Johansen) which is another really bad defensive combo. Schenn also leads the tier on scoring. Josi has the best BS+SOG in the tier but I’m largely off NSH tonight.Radulov for the PP correlation with Seguin or the line/PP correlation with Benn. But my personal favorite here isTeravainen. He has 14 points in the last ten games and he’s going up against the Matthews line which is awful defensively. Mitch Marner is part of two of the bottom 11 CA line combos in the league (the worst in the league being Marner/JVR/Bozak). Tor mixed their lines up slightly but CAR1 and 2 are very good lines to get exposure to tonight.
Tier 4
Pietrangelo (PP1)
Schwartz (1/PP1)
Klingberg (PP1)
Skinner (3/PP2)
- Brown(1/PP1)
This is another tier to rotate through. I wish Pietrangelo and Schwartz could be played together, but since they can’t I’m leaning Schwartz but it’s close. Schwartz is insanely efficient shooting the puck. He has 15 points on 19 shots in the last ten games. He is an assist machine (Schenn and Senko make his job a lot easier too). Pietrangelo gets a ton of ice time with that group and he’s their PP QB, his scoring is slightly down but he racks up the BS+SOG. So you can’t go wrong there. Skinnerhas great numbers but he doesn’t correlate with anyone other than Toronto’s terrible defense on the PP. Maybe use him as a one-off. You have to throw Klingberg into your DAL stacks.
Tier 5
Arvidsson (1/PP1)
Keller (2/PP1)
Van Riemsdyk (2/PP1)
Doughty (PP1)
Jordan Staal (1/PP1)
Turris (2/PP2)
Staal is on the top CAR line and facing the dreadful Toronto defense. So I will have a few shares of him. Arvidsson has the best iCF/60, most points and most BS+SOG in the trier. NSH has been one of my favorite lines to stack for the last two season and it has been profitable for me. I like the Kings too. ARI is awful and Doughty is blocked shot machine, his numbers in the last ten leave a lot to be desired but he’s always solid with the top line.
Tier 6
Toffoli (2/PP2)
Kadri (3/PP1)
Aho (1/PP1)
Rielly (PP1)
Subban (PP1)
Steen (2/PP1)
More than the LAK1, I like LAK2 tonight, they have been playing better lately but against ARI anything can happen so get shares of both lines. Toffoli has the best iCF/60 and most BS+SOG in the last ten. He also has eight points over that time.Aho is the third piece of my favorite stack of the night. Pair him with Teravainen and Staal and watch the money roll in. If you want to get a little creative with STL throw together a Tarasenko, Pietrangelo, Steen stack for the PP1 and get off some of the chalk.
Tier 7
Ekman-Larson (PP1)
Stastny (2/PP2)
Marleau (4/PP2)
Pearson (2/PP2)
Marner (1/PP1)
Johansen (1/PP1)
Johansen hasn’t been shooting much but he does have eight points over the last ten. I’d only use him in a NSH1 stack.Pearson has the best iCF/60 in the tier, with eight points in the last ten. OEL has the most BS+SOG in the tier, eight points in the last ten and LAK is middle of the pack defensively. I’m not big on ARI tonight but he is a solid one-off.
Tier 8
Hamilton (PP2)
Faulk (PP1)
Stepan (1/PP1)
Ferland (1/PP1)
Kempe (2/PP2)
Shore (2/PP1)
Fiala (2/PP2)
Hamilton has the best BS+SOG on the slate and top iCF/60 in the tier but he is tough to correlate. All other Flames are on PP1. He gets decent ice time with the top line so if you’re running the Monahan/Gaudreau stack throw him or Ferland in there. Ferland leads the tier in scoring with nine points over the last ten. I am finding myself on Devin Shore a lot tonight bc of his great matchup against the 3M line of CGY. He and Seguin make for one of my facvorite pairings of the night. Kempedoesn’t have any numbers that jump off the page but if you’re going LAK2, use Kempe. He should be low owned and finishes that full stack with Toffoli and Pearson. Faulk is another great correlation play with CAR 1. He provides a great floor with 40 BS+SOG over the last ten and he’s the PP QB on the top PP unit.
Stacks (in no particular order)
CAR 1
CAR 2
DAL 2
DAL PP 1
STL 1
LAK 2
**goal prediction: Devin Shore**
Hope this helps. Remember, follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and let’s win some money tonight