As we try to find our edge in Pick ‘Em on DK, I have been playing with different numbers to find the best predictors of success. Well, as predictable as DFS NHL can be.
I have been using team Corsi For (CF/60), team Corsi Against (CA/60), total CF and CA for individual players, blocked shots + shots on goal (BS+SOG) in the last ten games, total points (goals + assists) in the last 10. They seem to have put us on a lot of solid plays so far but today I want to try a new stat. Individual CF (iCF/60) per 60 minutes played. I think this will give us a better idea of how each player is performing instead of using a raw total number. No guarantees but I’m going to try it out for a few slates and if it sucks let me know. I don’t want to lead you in the wrong direction. I will point out where each tier stacks up and who is having the most success.
If you want to look at the raw numbers get in the DFS Army and look at Jim Keenan’s (@rk101785) chart breakdown in Slack. We also have terrific coaches and contributors for Classic NHL on FD and DK.
As you know, nothing is a guarantee in NHL DFS except wild swings of highs and lows. Even cash games are frustrating at times. It’s a season-long grind.
All my numbers come from RG, Corsica.hockey, Left Wing Lock or Vegas Insider for the money lines. If you need any explanation or just want to say hi feel free to DM me or tag me in Slack. Also, follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and if it’s your first time reading this and you like it, join the DFS Army.
We have six games and eight tiers tonight.
CBJ -157 (3.05) @ BUF (2.45)
ARI (2.38) @ TOR -216 (3.62)
CGY (2.52) @ WSH -144 (2.98)
WPG (2.57) @ NSH -135 (2.93)
NJ (2.41) @ MIN -165 (3.09)
ANA (2.31) @ SJ -186 (3.19)
Tier 1
Gaudreau (1/PP1)
Wheeler (1/PP1)
Matthews (1/PP2)
Hall (1/PP1)
Gaudreau leads the tier in CF and points in the last 10 and he’s always a stud – esp with how well his linemates are playing lately too. Definitely, keep them in mind for GPP consideration. Hall has by far the most BS+SOG in the tier and 10 points in the last 10 and his iCF/60 is almost three points better than anyone else in the tier (Matthews). Wheeler’s numbers are very close to Gaudreau, WPG isn’t a bad stack tonight but leave it for GPP’s with their lack of Vegas love. The Matthews line is always good. I love them tonight against ARI. Matthews should be the chalk, My only reservation is that I’ve stacked against ARI a few times lately and it hasn’t worked out.
Tier 2
Ovechkin (2/PP1)
Kane (1/PP1)
Scheifele (1/PP1)
Monahan (1/PP1)
Monahan’s numbers don’t really stand out in this tier but he does have 12 points in the last ten (see Gaudreau for the rest of the analysis – that line is incredible). Something that really sticks out to me every time WPG is on the slate is how efficient Mark Scheifele is. He doesn’t shoot much (neither do his teammates aside from Wheeler) but he scores when he does. He only has 22 BS+SOG in the last ten and 16 points. Kane has excellent numbers but outside of a large field GPP I’m off Buffalo, CBJ is too talented defensively and they rank in the top 10 in CF/60 and CA/60. Ovechkin is probably going to be chalk based on name cache. He’s shooting a lot but not scoring and CGY is solid in CA/60.
Tier 3
Forsberg (1/PP1)
Kuznetsov (2/PP1)
Burns (PP1)
Eichel (1/PP1)
Rakell (1/PP1)
If you use Ovi, use Kuznetsov with him. He has okay numbers but outside of eight points in the last ten, I’m not overly impressed. He’s talented so he’s worth a GPP flyer. Burns probably gives you the safest floor. He shoots a lot. He blocks shots a lot. In fact, he has the highest BS+SOG on the slate. He’s only recorded two points in the last ten games, so his ceiling is limited. Forsberg is right in the middle of everything. He doesn’t stand out but with almost three projected goals tonight, he should have a hand in much of it. Use Eichel only with Kane. Again, talented line but CBJ is too good defensively. It hasn’t been profitable to target them.
Tier 4
Couture (2/PP1)
Zucker (2/PP2)
Laine (2/PP1)
Kadri (2/PP1)
Atkinson (2/PP1)
I like Toronto and SJ a lot tonight. Couture has the highest BS+SOG in the tier but only recorded five points in that time. The SJ PP1 unit is looking enticing tonight for a massive late night hammer. Kadri has one of the lowest BS+SOG on the entire slate but he has seven points in the last 10. The Tor PP1 is interesting tonight, especially since everyone will target the Matthews line. I always seem to forget about Zucker, he’s talented and his numbers are solid. With over three goals projected and facing a bad NJ team, Minnesota has a chance to do some damage tonight. Laine is a rock star: he’ll be on the top PP unit with Wheeler, Scheifele, Connor and Buff (no shortage of talent in that group) and he’s tied with Zucker with nine points in the last 10 games.
Tier 5
E. Staal (1/PP2)
Arvidsson (1/PP1)
Ehlers (2/PP2)
Panarin (1/PP1)
Nylander (1/PP2)
Perry (1/PP1)
I like the combo of Staal and Zucker for the PP2 stack. He also has 10 points in the last 10 and is near the top of the tier in BS+SOG with 31. Arvidsson has the highest BS+SOG and the highest iCF/60 in the tier. As I type this, I’m talking myself more and more into a NSH stack. Nylander’s numbers surprised me. He only has five points in the last ten and has the lowest BS+SOG in the tier. Ehlers isn’t sticking out but maybe you could play him with Laine and get off the higher owned Scheifele and Wheeler (probably not where I’m going tonight). Panarin and Atkinson have the same problem, they shoot a lot but have not been productive lately. With Buffalo being a talented defensive team, I’m not crazy about using these guys. I could see this being a low scoring game.
Tier 6
Josi (PP1)
Keller (2/PP1)
Van Riemsdyk (3/PP1)
Rielly (PP1)
Oshie (1/PP1)
Pavelski (1/PP1)
Josi is off the charts in BS+SOG, very good in iCF/60 and has 7 points in the last 10 games. All very good reason to use him to finish off that NSH stack. Howwwevvaaah (in the Al Walsh voice – get in the DFS Army if you don’t get the reference), I am also a big Pavelski fan tonight to use with Couture and Burns and also TJ Oshie. I’m not on Ovi and Kuznetsov but Oshie’s number have been solid even though he is not shooting a lot lately. Oh, and Morgan Rielly – He is in a great spot too, use him with Matthews and Nylander or Kadri for the PP stack (you could use JVR here too but if I’m picking a Leaf in this tier it’s Rielly). This tier alone is going to make me make multiple lineups. The only reason I would use Keller is as a hedge. I’ve been stacking against AZ, so maybe if I play some Coyotes my Leafs players will go off. I know this is hard-hitting analysis.
Tier 7
Carlson (PP1)
Jones (PP1)
Hamilton (PP2)
Silfverberg (2/PP1)
Hischier (1/PP2)
Backstrom (1/PP1)
Carlson is by far my favorite Capital tonight. He has ten points in the last ten and makes a good lower owned pairing with Oshie. Vegas likes WSH a lot more than I do tonight though. Jones and Hamilton have similar numbers (great BS+SOG and little scoring). Hamilton has the best numbers in the tier by a lot but there’s no one to pair him with on CGY PP2. Maybe you can use him with the whole CGY1 line and hope they go bananas. Hischier is solid but tough to correlate. The only option is pairing him with Hall (fantastic numbers) for the top line exposure. They are on different PP units though. Silfverberg has excellent Corsi numbers but SJ is solid defensively and ANA otherwise hasn’t been impressive lately.
Tier 8
Hertl (2/PP2)
Ferland (1/PP1)
Connor (1/PP1)
Stepan (1/PP1)
Koivu (2/PP1)
Foligno (1/PP1)
Johansen (1/PP1)
For the Stepan analysis, see Clayton Keller. Hertl is in a great spot. He is leading the tier in iCF/60 and is one behind Koivu and Ferland for the BS+SOG lead. I am having issues with Hertl and Koivu but the players in the tiers don’t allow for full line stacks with them. Hertl works with Couture but not Pav on lines and Koivu works with Zucker on their line or Staal on their PP unit. Maybe just run all three in separate lineups and see what happens. Connor and Ferland are both playing very well and I like both full-line stacks very much. Foligno is like a lot of other Jackets, he’s shooting but not scoring, in fact, he has ZERO points in the last ten – the only guy on the slate that can make that claim. I like the Predators I mentioned earlier much better than Johansen. He has the worst BS+SOG on the slate, but he has recorded five points in the last ten.
Hope this helps. Remember, follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and let’s win some money tonight!