Draft Week 11 Aftermath Report – Looking Back to Move Forward

Draft Week 11 Aftermath Report – Looking Back to Move Forward by UW81

*Reminder this is a focus on Head to Head matchups only. 3m, 6m, 10m, and Dream Team have a different set of strategies.

First off, congrats to DFS Army Member kdmyrick71 for taking down 1st place in the $400k Mon NBA Clutch Shot on FanDuel last night winning $100,000 using the DFS Army Domination Station NBA Lineup Optimizer.  He also took down the $30K Mon NBA Pick ‘n Roll for another $3,000 with the same lineup.

For this series, we’ll be comparing the top options that we had going into the Sun-Mon slates vs. reality, how it affected our strategies in the previous week, and what it’ll change going forward.

To get the picks and analysis later this week, DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP – CLICK through here or use promo 20-OFF for 20% off and Bonus VIP entrance into our Slack Chat (28,500+ messages a week)

Some things went as we expected in week 11 and others not so much. We saw a team give up on football in New York and an offense on fire get stopped. The Saints churned out two RB1s and the Chiefs are somehow not a run-first offense anymore. Let’s dive into the picks and results.

Quarter Back:

QBProjectionActual
Brady21.8425.56
Wentz20.1722.02
Smith21.279.9
Carr18.914.48
Wilson21.2931.92

Brady was my clear number one QB choice this weekend. Highest game total on the slate, in Mexico, and the team had been practicing in higher elevation all week. They were ready and looked good. I mentioned not needing to go past Wentz, but other options were available if you wanted to get cute. The Smith call was redacted in Slack Sunday morning when we found out the winds were going to be sustained at 25 MPH+. Oakland’s strategy of showing up at game time didn’t pan out for anybody and made the Patriot’s defense look like a top-tier stopping unit. Wilson continued to light the world on fire this week with the highest total.

To get the picks and analysis later this week, DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP – CLICK through here or use promo 20-OFF for 20% off and Bonus VIP entrance into our Slack Chat (28,500+ messages a week)

Running Back:

RBProjectionActual
Hunt18.889.2
Kamara15.5322.6
Gurley16.4213.1
Coleman15.6312.3
Ingram16.1523

If there was a week for Hunt to have a breakout game, it would have been vs. the Giants. Just like Julio, he’s been downgraded to a GPP risk to play in this format going forward. On a team where he should be seeing Bell levels of usage, the Chiefs have instead decided to tank the season. I mentioned grabbing Kamara or Ingram as your second RB since the Saints seem to have turned into a run-first offense. I preferred Kamara this week and as long as you grabbed one or the other, it didn’t matter. Gurley and Coleman delivered near value so no one specifically killed your line up as long as you had one of the Saints running backs on your roster. Hunt didn’t help but didn’t sink you like the third pick down below.

To get the picks and analysis later this week, DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP – CLICK through here or use promo 20-OFF for 20% off and Bonus VIP entrance into our Slack Chat (28,500+ messages a week)

Receivers:

WR/TE

ProjectionActual
Kelce

14.65

13.9
Evans12.1211.7
Gronk14.045.1
Cooks12.1723.9
Cooper 12.1610.3
Baldwin13.4211
Diggs12.535.2
Thielen 12.9221.3
Thomas15.62

12.1

Tight ends were all the rage this week on Draft with Kelce going as the #1 pick in more than one draft I was in. Mind you, it was Friday night/Saturday morning before the wind news shifted strategies across the board. Turns out he didn’t murder your line up quite like Gronk did. Cooks ended up being the way to go on the magic 8-ball that is the Patriot’s offense this year. Evans/Cooper/Baldwin/Thomas did nearly as we expected them to according to our projections. Various other articles and pod casts we have at DFS Army strongly suggested not sleeping on the Vikings offense and if you picked the highest touted player Thielen, you probably locked up a win this week. He’s the real deal and has stellar skills for after the catch yardage per the clinic he put on Sunday.

To get the picks and analysis later this week, DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP – CLICK through here or use promo 20-OFF for 20% off and Bonus VIP entrance into our Slack Chat (28,500+ messages a week)

Week 12 strategy thoughts:

Turkey day slate we’re going to run out a special 3-man drafting article that should be live sometime Wednesday to coincide with their special tournament series for the day that starts as low as $0.25 for an entry. With the holidays looming and looking at the gigantic differentials going into the weekend, we might be sliding to a value system for head to heads vs. one of the traditional strategies we’ve employed throughout the season.