Like your everyday picks and plays in DFS, your play draft Head to Head matchups are going to follow the same logic. I lock in 50 matchups every week at the $3 slot before I write this article to give you a good idea of who’s being drafted and what to expect
- High scoring totals from explosive offenses
- RB at home have a general advantage
- Game Script
There are two major differences between Snake Drafts and DFS you need to consider:
- There is no need to hunt for value
- Every player you pick represents 20% of your total team, which makes stacking less valuable and correlated than in DFS.
Week 11 has shaped up to be a unique week in how people are drafting. Many of the head to head drafts I’ve seen were against other pros and it was interesting to see their rankings as we drafted. There are more options at all positions this week and less must drafts like we’ve seen in previous weeks. While a few players trended in 100%, many we’re spread out among other options.
Quarterbacks:
| QB | Projection |
| Brady | 21.84 |
| Wentz | 20.17 |
| Smith | 21.27 |
| Carr | 18.9 |
| Wilson | 21.29 |
Brady and Carr are in the highest projected game of the slate in Mexico city. Oakland is giving up the most points to a QB and NE is giving up the 4th most. It should shape up to be a gun slinging game. Both QBs have props to go over 2.5 TDs and since both aren’t known for their running prowess, I’d expect them to be in the air. Wentz is also in a solid spot with many weapons on a hot offense this week favored, at home, and with more than a 24 pt total. Alex Smith is going up against the NY Giants that have given up this season which puts him & Kelce into amazing positions this week. Wilson has also been hot the past few weeks and heads into a + match up.
Running Back:
| RB | Projection |
| Hunt | 18.88 |
| Kamara | 15.53 |
| Gurley | 16.42 |
| Coleman | 15.63 |
| Ingram | 16.15 |
Hunt is the clear #1 pick this week as he’s in the best position he’s going to be all year. Either he’s getting it done this week or not at all this season. Mentioned on both podcasts this week, Reed tends to forget his best players for a few weeks and then suddenly remember. It’s a coin toss between Kamara and Ingram. But I’m wanting some part of this offense. I prefer Kamara. Gurley is third on the list purely due to how others were drafting. I don’t think he’s in the best spot going into MN on the road against a solid defense. I think Coleman is in a better spot personally and he’s getting overlooked by everyone else on the site. Through all my drafts I was the only one to grab him in a matchup where he should see 20+ carries. I’m off Gordon this week. He’s in a committee this week. I’m not sure people know it because he’s being picked up in 70% of drafts.
Wide Receiver/Tight End:
| WR/TE | Projection |
| Kelce | 14.65 |
| Evans | 12.12 |
| Gronk | 14.04 |
| Cooks | 12.17 |
| Cooper | 12.16 |
| Baldwin | 13.42 |
| Diggs | 12.53 |
| Thielen | 12.92 |
| Thomas | 15.62 |
And this is where the field gets busted wide open. Kelce is in a premium match up and it hasn’t gone unnoticed. He’s gone as the #1 pick often, and 100% of the time against other sharps (identified by the shield next to their name). Evans sits in a premium match up coming off a one game suspension in a game we’re expecting to play to the over. It looks like he should get as many targets as he can handle. Gronk or Cooks makes sense because of the high scoring game in Mexico City. With Brady expected to throw 3 TDs and Hogan being out, both of these guys should see extra targets and red zone looks. Cooper draws the better match up in that game vs. Crabtree making him in play and an option. Baldwin is a solid option with Wilson’s accuracy being on point this week. Thielen is being touted all over the internet this week and should see a solid share of targets, but Diggs draws the plus match up and is healthy this week. He should see an uptick in points. Lastly Thomas represents a consistent floor over the past few weeks. He isn’t going to break ceilings or records, but he’s not going to put up a 1.1 like some others n previous weeks. I don’t think you need to go to him especially if you’re grabbing Kamara or Ingram.
Picking first strategy:
Usually it’s straight forward. This week, that’s not the case. There are two different forks you I would recommend.
- Fork one: Grab Hunt. Don’t let recency bias haunt you and lock in the best RB on paper this week.
- Fork two: Grab Kelce. He’s the chalk receiver in a very plus match up on paper this week. Easily able to hit 100+ yd/2TD
After the first pick, it’s going to depend on where your opponent went. I’ve seen people go Gronk/RB. Brady/Gronk. Evans/QB. Evans/Gronk. The trend this week has not been RB/RB in any draft I took part of. The reason being is that the tried and true bell cows aren’t there this week opening up to hybrid plays that are more apart of the receiving game, making receivers in plus match ups a better option once you get passed Hunt. If your opponent hasn’t grabbed a QB with his 2/3 pick, I’ve leaned to grabbing Brady in pick 4/5 and adjusted from there.
Picking Second strategy:
The last two weeks have been RB/RB. This week we go back to RB/WR.
- Only Fork: Grab a WR/RB. There’s no need to reach for a QB here. With 5 solid options on the board, you can live without getting Brady because you’re free to draft Gronk or Cooks, or even letting them double up on the NE offense. From a RB perspective, if Hunt is gone, the other 4 are serviceable and are generally flat. When I say flat, I mean I expect them all to have around the same amount of opportunity and points. If you can pinpoint which ones are going to get the TDs, you’re smarter than me.
Trends
Last week when I said not to stack Brown/Bell? I let everyone else do it and went 49/50 in my H2H. The one I lost? I had Bell/Brown myself. This means if someone wants to stack Smith/Kelce or as one person did, Brady/Gronk/Cooks, let them. Yes they’re all in great spots, but football is unpredictable. Just because Kelce should have a monster game on paper doesn’t mean he twists his ankle on the first play. The NE/OAK games could end up 0-3.
- No one is looking as deep as Coleman for RB. If you want to lock up receivers and a QB ahead of a second RB, he’ll be there.
- Few people are looking to the MN offense in H2H.
- No one drafted Oakland’s offense. They’re projected to hit 23.5 which is more than Washington, ATL and
- With a much larger core of players this week, you can make many more combinations than last week.