Get ready for a weird one, folks. No practice, a strange qualifying session, and what will presumably be a long rainy raceday. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Top Plays
Martin Truex Jr. – Allow me to repeat what I said last week – don’t let whatever voodoo MTJ is playing with that put his practice times in the dumps fool you – MTJ is in a league of his own right now. He rolls off in a gift of 17th at a track where he has straight dominated. My guess is that they focused on race trim and kind of bombed qualifying. Regardless – look for MTJ to compete for a win with a ton of speed.
Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie J had a horrible qualifying session, which is good news for fantasy land. Charlotte is a tremendous track for JJ. Stats don’t really matter here – a 25th place JJ is nearly unfadeable.
Joey Logano – Joey hasn’t looked all that great this weekend, but the Fords certainly have – and rolling off 28th is hard to ignore. I would guess old Jo-Lo will take a page out of his Ford teammates notepad. Look for Joey to have some speed this weekend and find his way to the top ten.
Kevin Harvick – Allow me to step out on a limb here. I think Harvick has a super fast car, and will thrive under tumoltous conditions. He led laps here earlier in the year, and almost never ends up outside of the top ten here. I think Harvick is a valuable pivot of the Toyotas and can get ahead before the MTJ storm comes.
Fades
Not confident fading anyone this week. Its gonna be a weird one.
Value Plays
Erik Jones – This really should be in top plays, but at only $7900, there is some value here too. Jones is strong on the half miles with an average running position of 15th, and thanks to some qualifying woes he rolls off 38th. What more could you ask for!
Jamie McMurray – All I have to do is repeat what I said last week. Jamie starts 18th. Jamie has been getting faster and faster all playoffs. He should end up in a top ten position when it’s all said and done. Play with confidence.
Ryan Newman – I am a bit on the fence about this one, since Newman starts 10th. But Ryan has been an animal here the last couple years – not finishing outside of the top 15 since 2012. If he keeps that up he very well could find himself in the optimal, since he will only cost you $7100. Not bad for a guy with an average running position of 13.4 on the 1.5 milers.
Outside of those obvious plays, you are going to have to get a little silly. There is going to be a lot of JJ, Erik Jones, MTJ and Newman lines up – in whatever iteration. I think Suarez, Stenhouse, Bayne, Menard, Almirola…and maybe even Moffit are on the table. I didn’t mention them – but Kyle Busch, Hamlin and Kenseth all have some heat – in that order. And though I am not super high on Larson, he’s is always a factor on the bigger race tracks. Like I said – don’t be afraid to get silly.
Keep an eye on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.