Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station & VIP Research Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
Before we begin a quick Congratulations to DFS Army VIP member ‘Jhawkfan25’ who took home a $150,000 payday earlier this month using a combination of VIP picks, A VIP only article and personal knowledge.
Last Week Recap:
After no write up last week I will be reviewing my picks from the CIMB Classic
Justin Thomas –GPP
Thomas came into the event with back-to-back wins at the CIMB Classic and was looking for his third. Everyone was on Thomas and later in the week with FanDuels pricing it became evident that avoiding him was the play in that format due to ownership. I was still surprised to see him get above 30% on DraftKings given his price but I guess with back-to-back wins it makes sense he was super chalky. Thomas played all right, racked up 90 DK points and finished 17th in the event for DraftKings scoring.
Thomas Pieters – GPP
Pieters has typically been a go-to play for me in no-cut events. Sure, he might shoot an 80 one day but that’s okay because he can more than make up for it. This week it was not all they’re for Pieters and he finished with a disappointing 71.5 DK Points.
Wesley Bryan – Value
Bryan was an affordable value play on both sites, specifically DraftKings given his near minimum salary. I was on Bryan for the week because he has typically performed well at short, easy courses. Bryan did not finish near the top of the leaderboard like I had hoped but his 77.5 DK points were more than enough to finish comfortably in the top half of the field.
Rafa Cabrerra-Bello – DraftKings Value
Cabrerra-Bello had a cheap price tag, which made him very chalky across GPP’s. With the high ownership, Cabrerra-Bello did not disappoint finishing with 97.5 DK Points, good for 12th overall on the week.
Xander Schaufelle – FanDuel Value
Schaufelle was simply underpriced on FanDuel based on his recent performance. Schaufelle was coming on hot after his PGA Tour Championship victory and finished 5th in scoring with 120.8 FanDuel points.
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Course Breakdown
The PGA Tour finishes up its South East Asia tour this weekend with the WGC-HSBC Champions. The tournament is taking place at Sheshan International Golf Club located in Shanghai, China. This course has been host to the event every year in recent memory except 2012 for those looking at course history. Finally, this event continues the streak of no cut events that we have seen in recent weeks.
When looking at the field we see much of the worlds best in competition this week. Headlining the event is Dustin Johnson, a former winner here in 2013 and reigning champion Hideki Matsuyama, both will be looking to build off of successful campaigns last year. Other top ten players include Jason Day, Jon Rahm and Henrik Stenson well everyone 11-20 is making an appearance including; Brooks Koepka, Marc Leishman, Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar, Paul Casey, Alex Noren, Pat Perez, Tyrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood & Franceso Molinari.
The course itself is a traditional par 72 measuring at 7,266 yards. No definite trends have developed in terms of a player type that leads to success as both short and long hitters have performed well here. Players will have a chance to score with four par fives but players are also challenged by four longer par fours (450-500 yards) and four longer par threes (200-225 yards). This makes long irons important for the week. Outside of long iron play, I will be looking at the basics in terms of stats. Shots Gained: Approach is the most indicative of success of the four shot gained metrics and targeting players performing well in this area is almost always a good idea. For the third straight week we see a no-cut event and for the third straight week you should be going after players with a high birdie or better %. We know the scoring for DraftKings and FanDuel heavily reward birdies so targeting risky players can pay off big when they are guaranteed four rounds (barring any withdrawals). Finally, recent form will be weighted heavily as I ideally want exposure to players who have been playing well and playing during this Asian swing.
*Later on this week our PGA Research Station and our PGA Domination Station will be out with stats and projections for each and every golfer. These VIP tools give members an ability to see stats weighted based on strength of field which is absolutely vital and shows a much better depiction of the numbers. These are the basis for all of my picks and as a result, the written up players are preliminary thoughts, they will be updated in the Slack Channel later in the week.
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Picks
Tommy Fleetwood – DK: $8600 FD: $7600
Although he has not played in the two prior PGA Tour stops here in Asia, Fleetwood looked good in his recent performances on the European Tour. Coming into the event Fleetwood has finished T25 and T6 amongst quality fields.
Matt Kuchar – DraftKings Value – DK: $7700 FD: $8200
Perhaps the most consistent golfer on the PGA Tour Matt Kuchar comes into the event underpriced on DraftKings. At $100 less than Lucas Glover, Kuchar’s price was a bit surprising to me when I started my research. Recently, Kuchar had four top tens in his last five starts. At this event last year Kuchar finished T21.
Justin Rose – FanDuel Value – DK: $10600 FD: $8400
Speaking of people who are undervalued, Justin Rose’s price does not make sense on FanDuel. We have seen this before specifically on FanDuel with Rose. Rose is the third highest priced player on DraftKings and for good reason, he is an elite talent and finished the season with four straight top ten finishes including a T2. However, Rose is the 10th priced golfer over on FanDuel.
Peter Uihlein – FanDuel Value – DK: $7600 FD: $6100
Well, Justin Rose is supreme value for the week he is not our prototypical definition of value. If we are looking for someone lower priced that is value look no further than Peter Uihlein. After a T10 two weeks ago Uihlein showed he is acclimated to the time change and has the game to compete.