This NHL DFS Breakdown will look into my favourite line-stacks and Goalies that I like for the night’s contests. Vegas odds, advanced statistics, and personal knowledge will all be used as the basis of my picks. For more NHL coverage follow me on twitter @_bschnarr and become a VIP member for Slack chat access.
Opening thoughts
Goals, goals and more goals! The NHL season is off to a high scoring start and we should continue to see that on Saturday. Teams are still figuring themselves out and referees are all over the place on their calls. If you have been betting the over/under so far the over is 10-3-2 so far, keep this in mind when making teams and look for players playing both even strength and power play time together.
Favourite Line Stacks
Derek Stepan – FD: $4800 DK: $5700
Max Domi – FD: $5000 DK: $4800
Clayton Keller – FD: $4000 DK: $4500
Although the Las Vegas Golden Knights won their first NHL game last night I like the prospect of any teams top line against a team figuring themselves out. The Coyotes top unit also has the benefit of playing together on the same powerplay, making their potential ceiling fantastic. In a 15 game slate, you can be sure Arizona’s top unit will come in very low owned in large GPP’s. If you’re looking for a top line and salary relief look no further then Arizona’s top unit.
Auston Matthews – FD: $7900 DK: $8000
William Nylander –FD: $6300 DK: $5700
“If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.” Matthews and Nylander produced opening night and they are in another situation to do so against a New York Rangers team that gave up four goals to the Colorado Avalanche opening night. The Maple Leafs are a favourite at home in the highest expected game total of the night (6u-120). Lundqvist looked shaky to start the season and the Maple Leafs offense was off to a great start with seven goals in Winnipeg. I like pairing Matthews and Nylander with Jake Gardiner – FD: $4600 DK: $4300 as he gets power play time with the dynamic duo.
Johnny Gaudreau – FD: $7100 DK: $6400
Sean Monahan – FD: $6800 DK: $6200
After being shut out at home I like the Flames top unit against the Jets and their goalies. Both teams will be looking to change parts of their games after rough starts to the season. Calgary is the slight favourite according to Vegas (-140) and the game features one of the higher total goal lines (5.5o-120) of the night. If looking to load up on the Flames I like pairing these two with T.J. Brodie – FD:$4200 DK: $3700 as he is the defensemen receiving power play time on the top unit.
Value Plays
Pavel Buchnevich – FD: $3800 DK: $4700
On FanDuel Pavel Buchnevich is an extreme value on the night. The New York Rangers and the Toronto Maple Leafs opened up as the highest expected score of the night according to Vegas (6u-20). Buchnevich is slated on the top line with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Krider and also received top line power play minutes. $3800 is far too cheap for the opportunity Buchnevich is being given.
Nick Ritchie- FD: $3600 DK: $3900
Playing on Anaheim’s second line and seeing second unit power play time Nick Ritchie is slated in a spot to succeed. Playing Philadelphia who is on their third game in four nights should help the Duck’s offensive potential and Ritchie gives you exposure to the game at an affordable price.
Vladimir Sobotka – FD: $3700 DK: $4200
Sobotka was one of my value plays on Wednesday and although his price has slightly increased he is still simply too cheap. Playing alongside a player like Vladimir Tarasenko will make anyone look good and getting an opportunity on both his even strength and power play lines for $3700 is a steal. St. Louis is playing Dallas tonight, a team that has been known for a high-tempo game over the past few seasons and a team that hasn’t shown a great ability to keep the puck out of their net.
Vladislav Namestnikov – FD: $4300 DK: $4900
Playing alongside Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov gives Vladislav Namestnikov an opportunity to produce every night. If playing on FanDuel the price is really soft and should be exploited until Namestnikov get bumped up or is no longer on the top line/top power-play unit.
Goalies
Cam Talbot – FD: $8300 DK: $8500
Despite being the most expensive goalie on DraftKings Talbot is the 14th most expensive goalie of projected starters. That simply does not make sense and looking at Vegas odds affirms this. Of games that have had betting odds released Edmonton opened up as the biggest favourite of the night (-180). Playing the Vancouver Canucks Talbot probably does not have the super high, 40 save shutout ceiling of other goalies as I do not see Vancouver dictating the pace of play against Edmonton. However, Talbot is certainly looking like the safest option for cash games for the slate.
Jake Allen – FD: $8600 DK: $7300
It has been well documented how teams suffer in a back-to-back situation, especially if the team has to travel for the game. Tonight Dallas travels to St. Louis in a situation where they are likely having to start their backup, Kari Lehtonen. Vegas has St. Louis as the slight favourite (-135) but I think they are in a great spot tonight and that Jake Allen could reap the rewards of a tough back-to-back and get his second win of the season.
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