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NFL DFS “The Wishbone” Lineup Advice and Strategy for Fanduel and Draftkings Week 7

Welcome to NFL DFS #TheWishbone! Some of you might not even know what a wishbone is, and I’m about to date myself here. The Wishbone, before passing became so prolific, was perhaps the most powerful running formation in all of football. I mean back when grampa played with leather helmets and no face mask to grab. The last vestiges of the Wishbone were finally eradicated somewhere in the 1980s from the Big8 and Southwest conferences, later rebranded the Big12.

The wishbone is a powerhouse formation designed for ground and pound, move the chains, bend over here it comes and we are telling you about it type football. However, within that formation came a ton of options, reads, cutbacks, and even some passing plays. Like DFS, the wishbone was the chalk, but from the wishbone evolved a lot of contrarian plays. Now, that your history is current, and you undoubtedly see where I’m going with this article, let’s “dive” in. (Hopefully, some of you got that last little pun there.)

By the way, my name is @Choppodong (give me a follow out on Twitter) and I am a contributor and coach for the DFS Army.  We don’t build lineups for you.  Instead, we teach you how to build your own fundamentally competitive lineups.  If you are the type of player that takes pride in his/her research, you might be just who we are looking for.  In fact, I have another few hundred buddies inside just waiting to meet another player that can bring yet another unique perspective to the group.  There is nothing quite like a few hundred like-minded DFSers chatting throughout the week and getting better through groupthink.  I promise nothing else you’ve experienced compares.

DFS Army NFL Week 6 in Review

For a recap of week 6 and preview of week 7 in video format, see my YouTube video from Monday.

Now, for the skim-friendly version of week 6…

QB – Cousins and Watson won the slate.  Both were easy picks from our contributors and coaches.  To quote John “Hannibal” Smith of the A-Team…..I love it when a plan comes together.

RB – Melvin Gordon and Mark Ingram were mentioned around the industry, but they weren’t chalky picks.  Ingram might have been a little as his name really caught fire late week as the sharp play over his backfield running mate Kamara.  Gordon was more mentioned as a good GPP pivot.  Coming in 3rd was LeVeon Bell.  Yeh, he’s back…..and he be pissed.

WR – Antonio Brown did his thing, but not many people had him if they paid up for RB.  Honestly, AB doesn’t really kill you when he goes off because he is so cost-prohibitive unless we get some dirt cheap running back allowing us to roster him.  Larry Fitzgerald burned a lot of people again this week because we all saw the great spot he was in but were still gunshy about rostering him due to him burning us so frequently in blow up spots this year.  He has now had two good games and a bunch of “consistent” games.  He’s as cash safe as it comes, but his ceiling is rarely tested.  Twice in 6 weeks is honestly about it for him in my opinion.  Golden Tate is another beneficiary of big volume in spots where his QB is forced to throw the ball to keep up.  He got in the endzone for the bonus points, too.

TE – Rob Gronkowski had himself a day with his 2 TDs.  That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to anyone.  He is capable in any week.  Trying to predict those weeks is yet another challenge that has many middle aged men playing fantasy going more bald than they already are.  Maybe it has them skipping the Propecia in the grocery aisles, admitting they have lost to Father Time………..or stress.

D – New Orleans Saints.  Really….enough said.  They scored 3 times.  If you had them, you pretty much cashed.  If you didn’t, well, you are in with 99% of the population.  I had them last week at 1% ownership.  And, yes, I’m rubbing that in a little.

 

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Big NFL DFS Wins from Our VIPs

The big win this week was our own @huntersinclair and his takedown of the King of the Beach Qualifier.  Held in Key West, FL this year, Hunter is making back-to-back appearances.  He won the qualifier and trip to the Atlantis Resort in the Bahamas last year.  Winning any qualifier is quite the accomplishment.  However, winning them in back to back years on a normal budget?  That’s like Santa Claus on Prozac getting laid on a ferris wheel!

And, above you have a handful of our VIP winnings.  I can beat this drum all day.  The DFS Army wins!  We teach ordinary, struggling DFS players like you to win.  Our members don’t buy their lineups.  They plug in, learn our systems, and build their own winners.  The immense pride shows, too.  Immense pride in a job well done.

Just last week, we also had a member place 2nd in the Fanduel Sunday Million for a cool $150k:  Deconstructing a DFS Army Member’s $150,000 Winning Lineup on Fanduel

Week 6 NFL Vegas Odds Table

Teams on bye:  Detroit, Houston

We can talk about a lot of things, but when it comes to the NFL, I like keeping things simple at first.  Implied columns are the individual team’s implied total.  The favorite is obviously the favored team in Vegas.  The underdog is obviously the underdog.  And, the spread is the point differential Vegas feels the final score will display.  We use all of these parameters to predict game scripts and prioritize the games we plan to attack for the upcoming week.

A large spread often indicates the favored team will be winning by a comfortable margin as the game nears the end.  We can use this to predict a running back’s usage in the 4th quarter, or even earlier.  A high implied total can indicate several touchdowns to be spread around amongst the key players.  And, when both teams have a high implied total, but the spread is small, it can indicate a possible shootout with the offenses just going back and forth allowing our DFS NFL players to feast on points like Amazon piranhas surrounding a capybara.  Generally speaking, we are attracted to the green and leery of the red in this graphic.

DFS NFL Definition of the Week – Correlation (part 2)

In week 5, we talked briefly about correlation and linking our fantasy players together for the double dipping of points.  For example, the quarterback throws to the wide receiver (you have both) and a touchdown is scored.  You receive the passing TD, the yardage for both the QB and the WR, the reception for the WR, and the receiving TD.  You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to deduce the inherent advantage correlating and stacking yields.

Recently, we received a VIP question asking for a fundamental lineup review.  Hidden in this lineup was a tight correlation play amongst chalk players.  It was pointed out this was also a risky move, even though the individual players were cash safe.  It’s nearly impossible to type all that out.  So, if you have 12 minutes (less time that you wait at Starbucks), give this quick description a watch:  GPP vs Cash Lineup Building.  The video dives a little deeper into correlation, and hopefully, gives you that little extra thought when pairing your players together in your contests.

You know, the world of DFS NFL is heading towards computer algorithms and optimizers.  If you aren’t using one, you are now at a disadvantage in certain contests.  I want to show you ours through a tutorial video we put together.  DFS Army has invested heavily in giving you not only the coaching to be great, but also the tools, stats, content, and even the optimizer.  Fully customizable, the Domination Station  (click link for tutorial video) has produced big wins in every sport due to our own Army projection system.  From there, you can plug in a few players you like or simply let the optimizer run you off 150 lineups.  The choice is completely yours as to how you run this dragster of a computer algorithm set up to propel you across any finish line.  To unlock this beautiful piece of machinery, use the coupon code CHOP when you sign up.  CHOP gives you a 20% discount for the life of your membership no matter what our rates do in the future.  You are locked in at your original price!!

NFL Week 7 Game Spotlights

ATL @ NEP

I’m just going to say it.  SCREW YOU, DRAFTKINGS!  I’m not playing you this week because for 3 weeks now you’ve taken one of the, if not THE, best games off the main slate.  I’m not calling for some boycott, but two things have combined to ruin my enjoyment of NFL on that site.  1- Removal of the Sunday Night game.  Again, I repeat…….SCREW YOU, DRAFTKINGS!!  2- Incredibly tight pricing.  Your tight pricing has ruined my enjoyment of NFL on your site.  Look, loose pricing serves to ruin the edge of the skilled player by allowing us all to choose studs and just letting variance take over.  Well, tight pricing does the same thing.  It removes the edge by making us all choose crap players at some point.  I can tell you I would rather just play studs if you are going to do this to us.  So, for the third time…..SCREW YOU, DRAFTKINGS!!!  I’m done with you during NFL for the foreseeable future.  I’m sure you’ll miss my $5 in rake every week.  But, you’ve pissed me off and I don’t spend money when I get no enjoyment from it.  This is a hobby for me, not a profession.  I play for fun.  When I no longer have fun, I no longer play.  (Maybe some other time, I won’t beat around the bush and I’ll let you guys know where I really stand.)

ATL @ NEP (-3.5)  (take 2)

Phew, now we can get to the game that Fanduel will leave on a couple of slates for us.

The 55 point total from Vegas indicates we have another barn-burner on our hands.  The home favorite, Tom Brady, will be in full effect if he’s not going to cost you $20,000.  Most of his weapons, too.  However, once again, good luck identifying which ones will be used most this week.  We all thought Chris Hogan was safe last week…….wrong.  You just can’t trust position players in New England not named Brady.  As for Atlanta, my goodness, what can I say?  Matt Ryan is predictably regressing to career numbers after his amazing 2016.  Julio Jones has yet another nagging injury.  This guy has more dings than my 1984 Pinto.  The running backs are in play, but I’m not sure anyone else honestly is.  It’s going to be a chalky game, though, so suit up and watch the fireworks potentially shootout on Fanduel.  If I haven’t made myself clear, you really don’t get an honest decision to play this game on CrapKings because they took it off the main slates.

LAR (-3.5) vs ARI (in London)

The London game, this week, carries some intrigue from me.  The Rams bring in Todd Gurley’s volume to try and take down a suddenly feeling better Arizona Cardinals team.  Adrian Peterson will be answering questions regarding what he has left in the tank.  The game might feature a lot of running and wind up being lower scoring.  If Peterson sees another steady diet of touches, it’s going to be hard for Carson Palmer to throw for the volume he has been lately.  If that part of the offense suffers, so do Larry Fitzgerald, the Browns, and whatever other options wear red on Sunday.  We are going to hear a lot again about how great the Cardinals secondary is, but Arizona ranks #29 in adjusted DVOA vs opposing wide receivers.  People don’t see it, but the Arizona secondary isn’t any scarier than the 6 year old goblin knocking on your door for free candy.

Chop’s NFL Chalk Talk

Click here to see how I build most of my NFL lineups in 30 min or less….“Bottom Up” Lineup Building Advice

QB – Usually a rather spread out position for ownership, it’s difficult to find the true chalk here.  With such an even point distribution across most of the position, the choices are just so wide open most weeks.

Tom Brady – We might not have much of a choice other than to pay up for Brady this week.  There just isn’t much else to pick from.  Everyone is either on the road, the underdog, both, or in a bad matchup.  Do you really trust our other home favorites of Ben, Keenum, Cutler, or Tyrod?  I honestly might not have much of a choice in my cash games but to pay all the way up for Brady and just suck up the rest.  I really don’t want to do that, but taking road QBs is also a bit risky.  Quite the #TwistedPickle.

Dak Prescott – The only thing worrying me about Dak these days is him being on the road.  Dak does a lot of damage with his legs, and having Zeke another week certainly benefits him greatly.  Not much about San Francisco intimidates me, and I’m sure even less intimidates Dak.

Carson Wentz – Monday night has some umph to it this week.  Wentz is my 2nd favorite QB this week on the big slates including the Monday game.  Home, favored, and implied high usually bodes well for our QBs.  The question here, though, is how good that WAS secondary is.  They rank #11 vs QBs and #1 vs PPR WRs.  That might be more a factor of who they’ve played, but it bears looking into a little deeper before making final decisions.

RB – I can tell you LeVeon Bell and David Johnson (uh oh) will be weekly features.  Let’s talk about some others instead.

Leonard Fournette – This guy might just replace David Johnson in the perennial category above.  He gets volume, and he should be overtaking Kareem Hunt in the discussion of Rookie of the Year the way Jacksonville is using him.  Play calls often look like:  Give it to Fourney, give it to Fourney, give it to Fourney, give it to Fourney, trick play/standard pass, give it to Fourney, give it to Fourney, give it to Fourney, halftime, give it to Fourney, give it to Fourney, throw 3 TDs to an obscure tight end, give it to Fourney, give it to Fourney.  Ok…..horse dead.  Stop beating it.  We get it.

Jay Ajayi – Sometimes, I just put new names here for fun because chalk rarely changes, and it’s boring.  But, Ajayi is actually in a favorable spot this week facing the Jets (need I say more?).  I do worry, however, about the implied total of just 20 points.  The optimist in me sees that as 3 touchdowns going somewhere……so, there is hope.  The games on this slate are really bad if you aren’t picking up on that theme.

WR – On FanDuel, you should be focusing on touchdowns and red zone work.  On DraftKings, we can favor reception volume more.

Adam Thielen – We need value this week, and we might find some here.  I don’t see us paying down too far at RB, and I don’t see us grabbing value QBs, so this is where we need to save money again.  If Stefon Diggs sits again, you will see a lot of the industry fire up Thielen.

Rishard Matthews – Speaking of value, Matthews isn’t ever very high priced when he compares to the position.  However, we find ourselves in need of savings, at home, favored, and facing the Browns.  The Browns are so bad………….how bad are they?……….The Browns are so bad, they are the only consistent team in the NFL week to week.  Everyone else has had just enough flashes of talent and greatness to keep us frustrated.  Not the Browns.  They’ve been the suck since the draft when they confirmed their fans had no hope for the 79th straight year.  And, to think, we all thought the Bills and the Jets would vie for the top draft pick in 2018.  I have news for you.  The Browns told you to F-off…..they have that spot on lockdown.  Oh, and Rishard gets targets.  (That’s some serious analysis right there.)

TE – Perhaps the most volatile of the NFL skilled positions, knowing some chalk here becomes quite important.

Delanie Walker – To put the Browns smack talk on steroids, we have a tight end facing them that is normally in the chalk conversation as cash safe every week.  Toss him out against the Browns, and Delanie should have quite a good game.  Again, with analysis like this, who needs ESPN?  Taking the TE against the Browns is a thing……….and the public knows it.  That, my friends is damned near the definition of chalk talk.

Rob Gronkowski – If going another way, and if you have the Sunday Night game on your slate, Gronk is the play.  We typically look for targets….check, a team heavily favored…..check, and an implied total over 24 points…..check.  Add in it’s Gronk with 2 TD upside nearly any week he’s healthy, and we have a chalky week to be Gronk.

DST – Another volatile NFL position, but chalk emerges more predictably most weeks.

TEN Titans – So, who is facing the turnover prone Browns?  I’m sorry, my short term memory isn’t as good as it once was.  Yeh…I’m out of jokes.  Just play the Titans vs the Browns this week.

JAX Jaguars – Well, if you don’t want to target the Browns, maybe I can interest you in the otherwise inept Colts?  The Colts are worthy of targeting in any given week with any given team.  Add in the elite Jaguars this year and you have yourself an easy chalk play.

NO Saints – Did I really just list these guys as chalk?  Well, it’s more about chasing points.  People came out shocked last week that the Saints had a great game.  It shouldn’t have shocked them that NOLA had a good game.  It should, however, shock everyone that they scored 3 defensive TDs.  That’s not going to happen again.  Settle down, they are playing a backup QB at Lambeau Field.  I don’t think that’s very chalky.  I bring it up so you notice the point chasing effect when their ownership is higher than it otherwise would be if they weren’t coming off a 33 Fanduel point game last Sunday.

K – I don’t cover a lot of kickers.  My default criteria for them is very simple, however.

I want them favored, at home, and implied to score over 24 points.  I prefer them in good weather, too.  From there, I simply find the cheapest meeting all these criteria and bam……I have my kicker.  Pretty simple.  If you want more sophisticated advice, I recommend you read Kicker’s Corner.  PVAaron writes the kicker’s article, and it drops most Thursdays.

The Fine Print

Disclaimer – As will all my writing, my job is to put you on the popular plays….the sound plays. From there, you can determine for yourself where and when to get off them.  I am a better cash player than GPP player; therefore, you can easily use my chalk plays to find similar, but lower owned, plays for yourself.  And, you can also use me to help you learn the fundamentals if you are just starting out.  The cash players are often highly owned.  They are highly owned for a reason…they are in the best spots, the obvious spots.  When you graduate from my school of the obvious, you are ready to ask Keith, Al, the Geek, Donuts, and our other coaches for their opinions on more sophisticated endeavors.  But, you can only do so as a VIP.  Our Slack chat forum is where the magic happens, and it’s where these coaches live!!

Come back next week because we will break this all down again.  Don’t forget to use code CHOP for your discount when signing up at DFSArmy.com to unlock your 20% discount.  And, don’t forget to give me a follow out on Twitter via the link back at the top.  I am usually trying to foster discussion out there, too.