NBA DFS is a different kind of beast. Studs can outright win you a GPP with a massive performance and value plays can be brought to light just minutes before contest lock time due to late scratches or breaking news. It isn’t for the faint of heart and the most dedicated researchers and news followers will have a significant edge over the field. This column will be loaded with valuable research and metrics (facts) and analysis (feelings) on how to use this information in your contests.
Let’s get to work!
While we have limited information on how the rotations will form, what type of usage individual players have, and what kind of pace of play each team will have this season, I think the best approach for the first week or so will be to go more GPP heavy with more credence in the “feelings” aspect of DFS.
PG
Kyrie Irving is not only playing his former lover, err…team, he’s doing it in Cleveland in his first game as a Boston Celtic. While I believe his ownership should be quite high, possibly the highest at the position, he likely will be shouldering the offensive load with one heck of a narrative. Basketball is actually one of the sports where narratives actually yield results.
Matching up with Irving will be the NBA’s greatest defensive player in history, Derrick Rose. Just kidding, he’s legitimately one of the worst defenders in the NBA and Irving is absolutely going to abuse him. That said, he should provide solid offense for the Cavaliers tonight as Irving isn’t known for his defense either. The two could play up-tempo against one another with Rose proving to be a high upside game stacking piece as the second point guard in your FanDuel lineups.
SG
Cheap starters who will play a ton of minutes and can grind out value are necessary on two-game slates. Enter, Jaylen Brown. The athletic two guard will be in the lineup with Marcus Smart coming off the bench. He isn’t the best player on DraftKings because you only need to roster one SG, but on FanDuel where you need to roster two he is the perfect punt. As we continue to attack the lower Vegas over/under game between the Celtics and Cavaliers (212.0 total), Brown is a lock.
The Rockets vs Warriors game will be played at the Oracle arena which is a huge advantage to the Warriors as they have huge point swings when they catch on fire and get pretty interactive with the crowd. It’s one of the best atmospheres in all of the major sports, not just in the NBA.
There are two guys I really like for different reasons in this game. The first, James Harden, as I think he has a solid chance to finish the night with the most fantasy points. Of course, his ownership will be extremely high as he is the best SG available on this two-game slate, but it doesn’t matter to me what his price is or his ownership. The arrival of Chris Paul has a lot of people concerned Harden will have less usage this season but I am not concerned. Although his usage might go down as the primary ball handler, I think his efficiency might actually go up.
With Paul stealing a handful of assists each night, I think Harden actually will score just as many if not more points because of Paul’s presence as a scorer. Paul is a miracle worker at getting to the hoop and kicking it out to shooters around the perimeter. Harden also is very good at slashing to the hoop. I think the two will work well together and if they have any chance to keep pace with the Warriors the Rockets will defer to Harden for scoring.
The other player in this game is Klay Thompson. He will be the second most owned option at the position and there is credence to fading him for Jaylen Brown. On opening night at home, Klay will likely take a back seat to Steph Curry and Kevin Durant. It just doesn’t seem like a night where Klay will attempt 20-plus shots and take over the game. He doesn’t really have those types of games when the Warriors are facing another star-studded lineup. Klay is an excellent cash game play in my opinion because of his mid-range price tag and he’s a great way to get a piece of a very high scoring projected game (231.5 points) while not breaking the bank.
SF
With LeBron James being questionable for the Wednesday night showdown against his former teammate, Kyrie Irving, I think that will lower the ownership because of the “Q” next to his name on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I do think he plays and if he does he is a lock for my lineups. At a lower ownership because of injury concerns and everyone flocking to Kevin Durant, LeBron has considerable upside and presents us with a stud who should be under-owned. Anytime you can roster a stud when they’re under-owned in NBA DFS will be a worthy investment. With Derrick Rose replacing Kyrie Irving’s offensive usage (until Isaiah Thomas returns in January from injury), LeBron will shoulder the offensive load.
Sticking with the punt options in a two-game slate at a cheap price point, I want to use Jayson Tatum. He is the minimum price on FanDuel and should be locked into fairly heavy minutes because Marcus Morris is hurt and won’t be active. Taytum will actually be starting at power forward and matchup up with Kevin Love, which should keep him out of foul trouble because he won’t have to cover LeBron James. Tatum provides excellent salary relief to be able to pay up for studs at other positions.
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PF
With Irving gone and Isaiah Thomas out and the mercurial guard Derrick Rose as the replacement, the offense should flow through LeBron first and Kevin Love second. Love should feast on Tatum down low (or Al Horford) and is a mortal lock for double-digit rebounds. I can see Love having his way early in this game before the Celtics make adjustments. Love should be the starting center for the Cavs with Jae Crowder starting at the actual PF position in the game. With power forward being such a weak position on this two-game slate, it is imperative that we lock in the best player at the position. Love is clearly the best option.
With Love playing Center in the game but being PF eligible on FanDuel, I think a nice low-owned PF stack will be to use Love and Jae Crowder together. Crowder would complete a nice four-man onslaught with Rose, LeBron, and Love. If this game is higher scoring than projected with more ownership on the Warriors and Rockets game, then the Cavs stack should catapult you to the top of the standings.
If you want a piece of the Rockets and Warriors game, as long as Draymond Green is healthy he is a lock. The bigger the game and the more competitive the atmosphere, the more reliable Green normally is. He is the heart and soul of the Warriors team, despite not being a threat offensively, and I expect him to suit up. If he does, Love and Green are solid at the PF position.
C
Al Horford will deal with Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love for most of the game. he should own Thompson on the perimeter but will get eaten alive on the boards tonight by Love and Thompson. That said, with Gordon Heyward likely using up much of his energy covering LeBron James, Horford will probably have an uptick in offensive usage. I also think that with Avery Bradley gone and Marcus Smart coming off the bench that Horford and Irving will be the focal point of the offense tonight, as Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will both play heavy minutes but likely not be depended upon to score very much.
If you want a piece of the Rockets and Warriors then roll with Clint Capela. The athletic center is in a great spot to produce against the Warriors who play very small ball offense. Capela is athletic enough and played significant minutes the last two games against the Warriors last season. He probably has a nice 25-minute and 25-point floor and is a great play for cash games. He likely will not have the ceiling that Horford provides for GPPs though.
As the slates get bigger and more information is out, you will begin to find more metrics and research involved in our decision making. Just like my NFL articles, I will mix a fair amount of research with game theory and discuss how and where I plan on using the players for each slate. I am so excited to be providing content for the NBA season and I will see you all in Slack chat #dailydonuts #nfl-talk and #nba-talk.
You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I post my daily articles and love to interact with my followers.
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