Before I get to my GPP plays for Week 6, let’s all give a boisterous standing ovation for DFS Army member, “jhawkfan25”, who took second place in the FanDuel Sunday Million contest and won $150,000! It was incredibly exciting to be a part of on our members only Slack chat service. I broke down the lineup he made and what he used on our website to create the life-changing entry. Give it a quick read if you are not familiar by clicking here! If you only have time for one read I implore you to read the $150,000 breakdown right now and to come back to my GPP plays later.
Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson is an absolute lock on both FanDuel and DraftKings for cash lineups in Week 6. His running ability and his match-up against a bottom five defense against quarterbacks provide both safety and a massive scoring ceiling.
For our VIP members, when we use our ladder strategy (a conceptual investment strategy of how to invest our DFS bankroll weekly and in what contests to do so) we attempt to build our lineups with players that are considered to provide safety with a ceiling. Watson fits that mold perfectly.
The Houston Texans have a 28.5 implied team total (ITT) and currently are 11.00 point favorites as they are hosting the Cleveland Browns. In 2017, the Browns have allowed opposing quarterbacks to score at least 20.6 PPG on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
The difficult decision will be whether to have any shares of him in GPPs. I believe that using Watson in smaller GPPs, specifically in single entry GPPs 1,000’sh or fewer entries is absolutely fine. Yes, he will be higher owned than any other quarterback but he also doesn’t break the bank and there are plenty of spots in Week 6 to be contrarian.
The quarterback position ownership is normally pretty flat, so even though he will be the highest owned, it likely won’t look similar to Le’Veon Bell’s ownership in Week 5, where you could find him at 40% in some GPPs. To wrap it up, he’s great for cash, he’s good for small sized single entry GPPs, and for large field contests, you’ll likely want to pivot.
Kirk Cousins is one of my favorite GPP pivots on the slate. He is at a similar price point as Watson on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Washington Redskins are favored by 11 points and are struggling to run the ball. If the Redskins are able to exceed their 28 points ITT, they’ll likely do so through the air.
While the Skins’ will be shorthanded in the running game it looks like their pass catchers are rounding into full health. Jordan Reed is not on the Week 6 injury report and there is a positive buzz surrounding Jamison Crowder. Without a running game and a full arsenal of quality pass catchers, Cousins has an outside chance at finishing as the top scoring fantasy quarterback.
Alex Smith just can’t seem to get any love. The veteran quarterback is third in the NFL in passing yards (1,391) and passing touchdowns (11). He’s also 12th in the league in deep passing attempts with 20. Smith scoffs at your game manager comparisons.
The Chiefs are being overlooked in Week 6 as they are home favorites with an ITT of 25.0 points. They have scored at least 20 points in every single game this season and twice have topped off at 42 points. They are playing like the best team in the NFL and the Steelers, well, they are not.
Smith and friends should have their way with the Steelers in front of a home crowd. He’s 4x his price tag on Fanduel three times this season and likely will carry single digit ownership. He’s zooming up my player rankings for Week 6.
Running Backs
Lamar Miller is one of my favorite GPP plays on Sunday, as he is a perfect leverage play off the highly owned Texans passing offense. I spoke about this on our podcast (iTunes) or (click here to listen on our site while you browse).
To summarize what I said on air, the people that have Watson and DeAndre Hopkins stacked (likely 20-25% of the field in GPPs) will most likely not also have Miller in their lineup. By using Miller and fading the passing game we leverage that 25% of the field. If Miller scores a couple of touchdowns and Watson and Hopkins don’t connect, we can easily move past that portion of the field in GPPs. Better yet, if one of the above quarterback pivots blow up while you also have Miller in your lineup (and faded Watson + Hopkins), well now you’d be in business to take down a GPP for a nice prize payout.
Better yet, if one of the above quarterback pivots blow up while you also have Miller in your lineup (and faded Watson + Hopkins), well now you’d be in business to take down a GPP for a nice prize payout.
Miller offers everything you want in a GPP running back. He has played the fourth most snaps for running backs over the past three weeks (73.43% snap share) and is a three-down back. He out-snapped his backup by almost 50 snaps in Week 5 and the Texans have an ITT of 28.0 points.
A three down back who is playing a full complement of snaps in a positive game script? Yes, please!
Kareem Hunt is screaming up my player rankings with the news of Travis Kelce still being in the concussion protocol and Chris Conley being out. Fewer playmakers to share the ball with means more volume for Hunt and Tyreek Hill (more on him later).
With the Chiefs being home favorites, Hunt is in a great position to absolutely smash value at a lower ownership. While the field flocks to Devonta Freeman and Leonard Fournette, savvy owners will pay up for a running back who has a higher ceiling than both of them at a depressed ownership.
Hunt is 10th in the NFL in red zone touches (15), so that should discount your worries of losing more touches to Charcandrick West when the Chiefs are in scoring position. West did vulture a few scoring opportunities in Week 5, but I feel that we can chalk that up to game flow and variance.
Hunt leads the NFL in rushing yards (609) and is eighth in receiving yards for running backs (166). He is a three-down back with a high red zone target share and the Chiefs should be playing with a lead against the Steelers.
Game theory also plays its role in GPPs and we teach all of our members how to use it via our Slack chat. A quick example of a GPP game theory for Hunt would be that the Steelers struggle on the road and are turnover prone, just as they were in Week 5. This would set up the Chiefs with a few extra short field scoring opportunities for Hunt. If Hunt can turn in 100 + yards, a few catches, and multiple touchdowns, we could leap a huge portion of the field in GPPs who are all over the chalk running backs (especially if those guys dud).
***If you want to gain entrance to our members only Slack chat service (1,000 + members and 19 staff), in addition to a dozen weekly articles, domination station optimizer that we put two years of research and development into, analytics station, and plenty more members-only material, click here and enter promo code DONUTS for 20% off your membership!***
Mark Ingram is a phenomenal play on FanDuel. I already spoke to you about how to leverage against high owned players when I gave my analysis on using Lamar Miller. With Ingram, we have a nearly identical opportunity.
Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints passing offense, Alvin Kamara included, will be highly owned in Week 6. It’s 2017 and everybody knows when the Saints are playing in the Superdome that it more often than not leads to lots and lots of fantasy juice.
By fading the passing offense of the Saints and using Ingram, we can leverage the field. If Ingram, who likely nears 20-touches this week without Adrian Peterson around and in a positive game script, scores a touchdown or two and takes those scoring opportunities away from the passing game, we can zoom up the standings.
On Saturday, I will be releasing my Stacks on Stacks article – yes, the same column that our $150,000 Week 5 winner, jhawkfan25, mentioned that he used to build his stacks in the FanDuel Sunday Million contest. In that article, I will be discussing how to use multiple GPP plays, pivots, and leverage moves to build the most optimal GPP lineup without having to just randomly throw darts at players like Kenny Stills. Plays like that are for suckers. Don’t be a sucker.
Wide Receiver
I was persuasive enough to turn three more people onto Tyreek Hill on our Week 6 podcast and I am going to shed a little light on the readers of why he is my top GPP play at the wide receiver position.
Without Travis Kelce and Chris Conley, there will be 10.6 targets up for grabs. Conley’s backup, Albert Wilson likely will get a few targets but he has proven to be nothing special. If anything, Smith and Andy Reid will script their play-calling to feature Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt.
In 2017, Hill is 11th in receptions (25), 10th in receiving yards (356) and 5th in yards after catch (148). His 208 air yards ranks 17th in the NFL, which proves he isn’t just a gadget player who gets a bunch of screen passes and has a low aDot (average depth of target) like Golden Tate.
He is genuinely used down the field and Smith has a 126.6 quarterback rating when he targets Hill. I see no reason why Smith wouldn’t lean on Hill, specifically if Kelce is ruled out in Week 6.
Antonio Brown is somehow going to be under-owned because of the concerns about Ben Roethlisberger traveling to Kansas City with his road woes. Yes, Big Ben is struggling this season and he’s on the road where his splits are generally not as good, but Brown should still eat this secondary alive.
I completely understand the concerns, I really do. However, Brown leads the NFL in targets (64), target rate (33.0%) and has a 96.0% snap share this season. He leads the NFL in receptions (40), receiving yards (545), air yards (372), and yards after catch (173). Somehow he only has one touchdown and he is due for some serious regression to the mean.
The Steelers will likely be playing from behind and Brown should get peppered with targets. We don’t care if Big Ben is inefficient and turnover prone, we only care that he feeds Brown.
Adam Thielen is being discussed as a tremendous play this week and I am concerned his ownership is climbing. That said if Diggs is ruled out then who else is going to get the ball?
The way to beat the Packers is through the air as their cornerbacks are young and beatable. Thielen has run 55.7% of his snaps out of the slot and is 10th in the NFL in targets (40). He is sixth in receptions (29), receiver yards (392), and air yards (311). His catch rate (72.5%) is top-20 ranked in the NFL and his quarterbacks have combined for a 103.3 quarterback rating when targeting him.
Davante Adams could find himself under-owned in Week 6 as the Packers have a tough match-up against the Vikings stout defense. However, Jordy Nelson will get the tough task of facing off with Xavier Rhodes. This could open up more opportunities for Adams in the passing game.
With a 94.6% snap share (12th highest) and a 32.3% red zone target rate (14th), Adams will be on the field often and likely receive the bulk of targets in the red zone. We can’t ask for much more when targeting a GPP wide receiver. On FanDuel where touchdowns are king, a player like Adams is much more valuable than a player like Keenan Allen who is priced similarly at the position.
Marvin Jones Jr. is more of a large field GPP play as the probability of him exceeding value to plug him in for our ladder strategy or small field GPPs isn’t high enough. He’s going under the radar though and the people targeting the Saints vs. Lions game will be on Michael Thomas and Golden Tate. This will lead to Jones Jr. being under-owned.
He’s had a really tough start to the season because of the opposing cornerbacks he’s been matched up against. He’s actually been shadowed twice this year by Janoris Jenkins and Patrick Peterson in Week 1 and 2. In Week 6, Xavier Rhodes even followed him around the field for a large portion of the game. What this proves is that Jones Jr. might be a better NFL wide receiver than a fantasy player. Sometimes the talent just doesn’t correlate into fantasy points.
With the Saints not having a lockdown cornerback it could be the week Jones Jr. gets free behind the secondary. If he can haul in 6 catches for 100 yards and a touchdown, he’ll more than pay off his $5,900 price tag on FanDuel. I don’t see that being out of reach if the Saints are playing with the lead for the entire game and the Lions are chasing points.
You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I post my daily articles and love to interact with my followers.
**Editor Note** Would you like to try out a VIP DFS Army Subscription for free?
Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Sports tools in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and join the Army today! You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team to join!