Welcome to another night of fights. This should be a very fun and entertaining card. Not a ton of massive favorites on this card either. One thing to take note of, this card is in Brazil. For those new to MMA, Brazil is notorious for being very biased to Brazilian fighters when it goes to decision. Like always you can reach out to me in Slack with any questions at all. Also, don’t forget to check out the MMA Research Station as well and follow me on Twitter. Let’s get on to the breakdowns.
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Golm (-225) 8.8k vs Colombo (+185) 7.4k
Golm is 5-0 in his career and all of his wins have been via KO in the 1st Round. He is athletic with very good power. Along with being a good striker, he has decent takedowns. Throw in a decent submission game to boot. Colombo on the other hand is a tough fighter that can be hard to put away. He isn’t really good anywhere. He is often times very slow and has sub-par takedown (TD) defense. I like Golm in all formats. He has multiple paths to victory. My only concern is we have never seen him out of the 1st round so, we don’t know how good is cardio is. For that reason alone I think its worth it to take a stab or two, if you are building more then 10-12 lineups.
Brooks (-165) 8.9k vs Figueiredo (+145) 7.3k
Brooks has good power and is quick. He is very good at TDs and is a good wrestler. Figueiredo has decent power but, can be wild with his strikes at times. He has also shown in the past to struggle to get up after being taken down. I love the upside Brooks has with racking up the points with TDs and advances on the mat. He is in play in all formats. Figueiredo doesn’t interest me much other than a GPP dart.
Dos Santos (-220) 9k vs Griffin (+180) 7.2k
Dos Santos comes in on a 3 fight win streak. He is a tough fighter with big power (12 of his via KO). He has a good jab, along with solid knees and elbows. He is a very active fighter and has decent submissions. Griffin has decent power. He has very bad TD defense and also tends to stand around without much movement. I like Dos Santos here. Especially in GPP’s. He does have a high price tag but, well worth exposure in tournaments. Griffin isn’t really on my radar in this fight.
Gordon (-165) 8.4k vs Dias (+145) 7.8k
Gordon is a very good grappler with solid ground and pound. He fights at a very good pace and doesn’t ever slow down. Dias is moving up in weight class for this fight. He is coming in with 2 losses in a row. The main thing with Dias is he is tough to put away. That actually makes me like Gordon even more for his price. He could end up scoring very quickly with some TDs and grappling points. He is in play in all formats. Dias only interests me as a GPP punt.
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Carlos Jr (-500) 9.2k vs Marshman (+400) 7k
Carlos Jr has very good leg kicks along with good TDs. He is a solid grappler as well. Marshman is a very good boxer with solid power. In 30 fights he has never been submitted. So, this is a classic striker vs grappler fight. Marshman has the advantage the longer this fight stays standing. Carlos Jr will want to get this to the mat fairly quickly. Which, he should be able to do. Carlos Jr is playable in all formats. I will want exposure to Marshman a bit since he has a chance. Just don’t go too crazy with him in too many lineups.
Luque (-125) 8.5k vs Price (+105) 7.7k
Important note Luque is taking this fight on short notice. He is a good striker. He has shown to have a bad gas tank in the past. Price is a good striker with solid cardio. He has a decent all-around game. What is scary is he has looked very good his last few fights and this is the 1st time he has had a full training camp. Price is a slight dog so, he is a great cash value play as well as a GPP. I will have some shares of Luque he is fighting at home (remember what I said about home cooking).
Lineker (-550) 9.4k vs Vera (+425) 6.8k
Lineker is a very tough fighter. He has good power and hits like a freight train. He lands a very high rate of 5 Significant Strikers (SS) per minute. Vera will have a reach advantage here. But, only lands at 2.5 SS per minute. He does have a good ground game, along with solid submissions. Lineker should win this fight. The only problem is he is the highest priced fighter on the card. Lineker is playable in all formats, I just don’t know how much exposure I will have because of the price tag. Vera, I may have minimal exposure to if building over 12 lineups.
Hermansson (-125) 8.3k vs Santos (+105) 7.9k
First, you should have exposure to this fight in GPP’s, the odds for this fight to end in 1st Round is -120.
Hermansson has a good jab and likes to pressure a lot. He also has a solid ground game, as well as good ground and pound. Santos is a very physical fighter with dangerous leg kicks. He also has a solid jab. He has solid TD defense and when he is taken down has shown he can get back up. Santos has great value being a slight dog currently. He is playable in all formats. Hermansson is in play in tournaments as well. I will have plenty of exposure to this fight as the winner should score fairly high. I personally will have more exposure to Santos for his price.
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Trinaldo (-220) 8.6k vs Miller (+180) 7.6k
Trinaldo is a decent striker with a very strong Muay Thia game. He often times starts out very quick but, the longer the fight goes has had cardio issues in past. Miller is a very tough fighter (only been Knocked out 1 time in 30 fights). He has a solid ground game with decent submissions. Trinaldo is a GPP target for me, I am not liking his salary in a fight that could go to decision. Miller is a great value punt. Even in a lose via decision it wouldn’t be hard for him to pay off salary.
Font (-145) 8.7k vs Munhoz (+125) 7.5k
Font is going to have a substantial reach advantage (7 inches). He is a decent striker with solid combos. He lands at a fairly high rate of 5 SS per minute. Munhoz is a very durable fighter. He has very good kicks and is a great wrestler. He lands at a solid pace also 4 SS per minute. He also has one of if not the best guillotine’s in the business. A lot of people are big on Font. While I think he is a decent play, I am more on Munhoz in all formats. I love his chances to get this fight to the ground (Font has a 20% TD defense). So I will have lineups with both. My preferred play is Munhoz.
Covington (-135) 8.2k vs Maia (+115) 8k
This fight screams GPP. Covington is a good striker who likes to constantly apply pressure. He is also a solid wrestler. Maia has the best ground game period. If he gets you to the mat you aren’t getting up, unless he submits you or the round ends. That’s Maia’s only way to victory he only lands 1.5 SS per minute. So realistically Maia could score under 10 pts or as high as 75+. Covington is more likely to score highly so I will have more shares of him. Don’t sleep on Maia though have some exposure to him.
Brunson (-155) 8.4k vs Machida (+135) 7.8k
Brunson is an athletic fighter with good power (last 5 wins via KO). He likes to charge forward, which often leaves his chin exposed. Machida is coming off a 2-year hiatus. He is a good counter striker. He also has solid TD defense. This is definitely a fadeable fight, especially in cash. Brunson is the safer play overall. I will have some lineups with Machida in case he gets up to fight for this one.
Good luck everyone, don’t forget to check out the MMA Research Station to help you build your lineups, and follow me on Twitter!
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