Welcome back after a week off from MMA. First off, the start time of this event is Saturday morning. Be sure you get your lineups set before lock. Also, DraftKings didn’t do us any favors with payouts in GPP’s this week. Don’t get crazy with them and remember bankroll management. VIP’s remember to check out the MMA Research Station as well. I will also be in Slack Chat if anyone has any questions. Let’s get to the card now.
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Emmett (-335) 9.1k vs Arantes (+275) 7.1k
Emmett is dropping down a weight class for this fight. He is a good wrestler who, also has decent power as well. He also trains with Team Alpha Male. Arantes has a black belt in Muay Tia. He is a decent striker with a good ground game. In most fights, he tends to look for the submission. Plus he is moving up in weight classes for this fight. I like Emmett in all formats. Vegas has him as a pretty heavy favorite and he is only the 4th most expensive fighter. I will have a little exposure to Arantes if I am building more then 12-16 lineups.
Ladd (-270) 8.8k vs Lansberg (+230) 7.4k
Ladd is making her UFC debut here. She is a solid striker with a good jab. She also lands at a decent rate and has some upside with takedowns as well. Lansberg has decent elbows and knees. She is most comfortable working in the clinch. I don’t mind either here in GPP’s. Ladd’s salary is too high for me in cash. I will have some exposure to this fight but, not a lot. It could end up being a very low scoring decision.
Alves (-310) 9.2k vs Touahri (+255) 7k
Alves has a very good ground game. He is coming off 2 straight losses but, that doesn’t concern me in this fight. Touahri is taking this fight on short notice. He isn’t really good anywhere. I like Alves in cash a lot. I will also use him some in GPP’s. Touahri I don’t have much interest in.
Fili (-175) 8.7k vs Lobov (+155) 7.5k
This is a GPP fight only for me. Fili is coming into this fight with a huge 10-inch reach advantage. He has decent kicks and will look to keep Lobov outside. Another interesting note Fili has never been knocked out. Lobov is a decent striker that will want to close the distance and work inside. He trains with McGregor who has been helping Lobov work on his boxing for this fight. I will have some shares of both in tournaments with a slight lean to Lobov for salary savings.
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Emeev (-160) 8.2k vs Alvey (+140) 8k
Emeev is a very aggressive fighter. He is good on the feet, ground and in the clinch. He is just solid everywhere. Alvey is a very low output counter striker. Plus he is having to make a 35 lbs weight cut for this fight. I love Emeev in all formats. Especially at this price! Alvey is a fade for me. He only has 1 path to victory and that’s by KO which, I don’t think is likely.
Kelleher (-115) 8.3k vs Stasiak (-105) 7.9k
Kelleher likes to start of his fights very fast. He tends to get a bit wild with his strikes. He isn’t really dangerous anywhere. He does have a good guillotine if he can get you down. Stasiak has good kicks and a solid takedown game. He also has a good submission game. He also trained at Jackson Wink for this fight. Plus he is fighting at home. I like Stasiak quite a bit in this spot. He has good value for cash with upside in GPP’s. I will have a few lineups with Kelleher in case he can lock in the sub.
Wieczorek (-150) 8.6k vs Hamilton (+130) 7.6k
This is a GPP fight for sure. Wieczorek is a pretty sloppy fighter. He isn’t really good anywhere. But, he is a decent striker. Hamilton just retired less than a month ago. He is a good striker. His main problem is if he gets hit in the chin he is done. I will have exposure to both in tournaments. Hamilton will be super low owned due to everyone knowing about his glass chin. That makes me want some of him at low ownership. Have some of both. Just don’t go all in on this fight.
Held (-400) 9.4k vs Haqparast (+325) 6.8k
Held is a good grappler with solid takedowns. He is 0-3 in the UFC. At times he tends to also have a bad Fight IQ. Plus he is constantly looking for the heel hook. Haqparast has a 7-1 record against sub-par opponents. He is a solid striker and good everywhere else. I hate Held’s salary and odds. I know he will be popular I just think he lacks upside. Especially when I think there are better fighters in that price range. I like Haqparast as a GPP punt. Held should win so he is playable. I just don’t think he pays off his salary.
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Piechota (-190) 8.9k vs Wilson (+165) 7.3k
Piechota is a decent striker with good leg kicks. He also as a solid ground game. Wilson is dropping in weight class here. He has decent power but, can often time be very inactive at times. I like Piechota to win this fight. He should score well and is in play in GPP’s. I am not sure about cash yet. I might have a lineup or 2 with Wilson in case he catches him but that’s about it.
Clark (-160) 8.4k vs Blachowicz (+140) 7.8k
Clark is a very aggressive fighter. He has very good kicks as well as takedowns. Blachowicz has good power along with solid body kicks. He has shown he can be taken down. He also tends to gas frequently in his fights. I like Clark in all formats. If he gets this fight to the ground he will score a ton of grappling points. I will have shares of Blachowicz in tournaments. It is winnable for him and he is fighting at home.
Kowalkiewicz (-500) 9.5k vs Esquibel (+400) 6.7k
This fight is fairly simple. Lock Kowalkiewicz (KK) in cash if you can afford her. She has very good hands and combos. Plus she is solid in the clinch with good knees. I am fading Esquibel everywhere. I will also have some of KK in GPP’s I just won’t overexpose myself because that could limit your lineup overall.
Cerrone (-155) 8.5k vs Till (+135) 7.7k
Cerrone is a seasoned UFC veteran. He is a good striker with a solid ground game. He lands at a good rate. His weakness is body kicks. He has been hurt and beaten by them in the past. Till is making a huge jump in competition here. He has good elbows. Also, he has very good body kicks. I will have more exposure to Cerrone and like him in all formats. I will have some exposure to Till in GPP just in case he catches Cerrone with a body kick.
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