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*Note: In order to find the best possible players on a given slate, I will run 10 lineups with three (3) unique players in the DFS Army Domination Station. This is what I refer to as the “10/3 theory.”
SAINTS -4 over Lions
RB Mark Ingram finds himself in all 10 lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. Now that Adrian Peterson has moved on to the desert, Ingram should see his touches increase incrementally, just as they have in each week this season. The Lions numbers look slightly better than they should against RBs because of easy matchups so far and injuries to players like David Johnson and Dalvin Cook.
WR Michael Thomas is listed in six lineups on DraftKings, but I’m not sure if it’s him that will get most of the Saints’ pass-catching production. Thomas has a very tough matchup against Lions CB Darius Slay so it’s possible that more targets head in other directions… like RB Alvin Kamara, who is in six DraftKings lineups.
If you take away the wretched performance that Saints QB Drew Brees had against the Lions last season (0 TD/3 INT), he’s actually thrown for 19 TDs/2 INTs in the other six games he has ever faced them. Also on his side, Brees has averaged 351 passing yards, 2.65 TDs and 30.87 fantasy points at home since 2015.
With Saints coming off a bye week, their skill players littered all over the DS and telling numbers to back it up, it makes sense for them to put a big hurting on the Lions today.
OVER 44.5 – Packers @ Vikings
Vikings WR Adam Thielen finds himself in all 10 lineups on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but we all know this has to do with WR Stefon Diggs being out of the lineup. Even so, Thielen had a massive 12 catches (on 15 targets)/202 yards/2 TD performance the last time he faced the Packers. #1 WRs have feasted on the Packers secondary all season, and that’s exactly what Thielen will be today.
Our fearless leader (@FFootballGeek on Twitter) is a huge fan of Vikings RB Jerrick McKinnon today on DraftKings, and at $4100 you’d have to be a hater to… well, hate that. He’ll likely see plenty of touches with RB Latavius Murray still banged up somewhat.
The Packers are one of the few teams to have success on offense against the Vikings, and a lot of that is because of their QB Aaron Rodgers, who initially found himself in nine lineups on the DraftKings portion of the DFS Army Domination Station… However, when the latest update came through it was Deshaun Watson all over the DS, but I still love Rodgers to do some damage in this matchup. In fact, Rodgers has thrown 39 TDs/6 INTs against the Vikings in 17 career starts and that includes a 349-yard/4 TD performance against them in the last meeting.
OVER 47.5 – Browns @ Texans
The Texans have the second-highest ITT (Implied Team Total) of 28.5 and the highest increase (1.8) on that number during the week; in addition, the Browns also saw the third-highest increase (1.2) on their ITT.
Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins is in all 10 lineups on FanDuel and six on DraftKings; there is no doubt that he will be the chalk play at the position, along with his teammate WR Will Fuller in a slighter sense. The Browns are getting toasted by opposing WRs and this Texans offense is only getting more familiar with one another.
Both QBs in this game, Deshaun Watson and Kevin Hogan, are among some of the best value plays on this slate. Watson will obviously be Chalky McChalkerson on today’s slate going up against the team allowing the most fantasy points to opposing QBs- the DS has Watson in eight lineups on FanDuel and seven on DraftKings.
All in all, it doesn’t look like there is any way the Browns can stop the Texans offense. The Browns should be able to move the ball much better with Hogan at the helm that should easily get this game over the total, which actually increased 3.5 points since it opened.
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