Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to choose one free square from each of the positions available on Draftkings. That would include a QB, RB, WR, TE, and a DST. Sometimes these are going to be a low salary guy who we expect to crush his value or it can also be a higher priced guy who we think is going to return or exceed value. Also, at the end of the article, we will pick our ultimate free square out of the players we have chosen.
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Recap
Let’s take a look back and see how our week 5 picks fared. For our quarterback free square, we had Dak Prescott who ended up with 30.74 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.5x value! For our running back free square we had Melvin Gordon who ended up with 37.30 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.2x value. For our wide receiver free square we had Jarvis Landry who ended up with 15.40 DKFP which was good enough 2.7x value. For our tight end free square we had Austin Sefarian-Jenkins who ended up with 14.90 DKFP which was good enough for 4.3x value. For our defensive free square, we had the Philadelphia Eagles who ended up with 10 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.2x value.
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Weekly Overview
Looking ahead to week six the teams with the highest implied totals as of writing this are the Atlanta Falcons (28.8), the New England Patriots (28.5), and the Houston Texans (28.5) The Teams with the lowest implied totals are as follows Chicago Bears (16.5), Miami Dolphins (17.3), and the Cleveland Browns (18.5). Without further ado let’s dive into the free squares.
Free Squares
- Deshaun Watson QB HOU ($6,700)
- Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans will take on the Cleveland Browns this week at home. The Texans have an implied total sitting at right around 28.5 and they are currently 10-point favorites. Watson has been a break out star this season and he draws a fantastic matchup against the lowly Browns this week. He has put together the following values this season: 1.6x, 4.0x, 5.3x, 6.8x, and 5.7x. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that the Browns give up right around 21.37 DKFP to quarterbacks to this season which is one of the worst in the league. If we take a look at Watson’s stats we can see some encouraging numbers: 214 Pass YDS/GM, 29.0 Pass ATT/GM, 6.6 Deep Ball ATT/GM, 5.3 Air YDS/ATT, 12 Pass TD’s, and 2 Rush TD’s. If we take a look at the Domination Station we can see that we have a baseline projection 21.58 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 3.22x value. That is the highest value projection of the day and I am in agreement with the Domination Station on Watson. He will be highly owned but if we can get 3-3.5x value out of him at $6,700 that will bode well for the rest of our lineup.
- Chris Thompson RB WSH ($5,000)
- Chris Thompson and the Washington Redskins will take on the San Francisco 49ers at home this week. The Redskins have an implied total sitting at right around 28.25 DKFP and are currently 10-point favorites. Thompson has had a decent season so far and he has put up the following values this season: 4.2x, 6.7x, 7.5x, and a .5x value. He had a dud last week but other than that he has crushed value. Taking a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that the 49ers are middle of the pack against the run game sitting at right around 14th in the league. Thompson has a 110 O-line ranking, 33% OPP/Share, 45% Snap/ Share, 35% Dominator/Rating, 7.1 YDS/Carry, 5.3 Targets/GM, 59 YDS/GM. The knock on Thompson is that he barely averages 5.0 Rush/ATT, but we have to dig deeper and he is an integral part in the passing game. He is basically a hybrid type player who is slotted at RB. If we take a look at the Domination Station we can see that Thompson has a 10.89 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.18x value. If he can continue to get the same number of total touches he has seen all season I think we can expect a 10-15 DKFP performance out of Thompson this week. I love his price and his upside this week on Draftkings.
- Davante Adams WR GB ($5,700)
- Davnate Adams and the Green Bay Packers will take on the Minnesota Vikings on the road this week. The Packers have an implied total sitting at right around 24.8-points and they are currently 3-point favorites. Adams has had a pretty solid thus far netting the following values on the season: 1.5x, 4.3x, 1.6x, 1.6x, and 4.4x. If we take a look at our NFL Research Station we can see that the Vikings are the 17th worst defense against receivers. As far as Adams goes he has the following stats on the season: 95% Snap/Share, 26% Dominator Rating, 7.8 Targets/GM, 4.6 Rec/Gm, 57 YDS/GM, 1.94 FPTS/GM, 4 TDs, 10 RDZ/TGTS, 32.3% RDZTGT/Share, and 15.1 FPTS/GM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of 13.85 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.43x value. I am little more bullish on Adams then the Domination Station week and I think we can see anywhere from 3-3.5x value.
- Austin Sefarian-Jenkins NYJ TE ($4,300)
- Going to back to the well this week as Austin Sefarian-Jenkins makes back to back appearances on the free squares. ASJ and the Jets will take on the New England Patriots at home this week. The Jets have an implied total sitting at right around 19-points and are currently 9.5-point underdogs. AJS has played well this season netting the following values this season: 2.7x, 2.9x, and 4.3x value. If we take a look at the NFL Research Station we can that the Patriots are the 24th worst team against tight ends this season. He has the following stats this season: 91% Snap/Share, 6 Targets/GM, 5 Rec/GM, 35.3 YDS/GM, 1.76 FPTS/Target, 1 TD, 33.3 RDZTGT/Share, and 10.5 FPTS. Taking a look at our Domination Station we have a projection sitting at right around 11.30 DKFP which was would be right around 2.63x value. I think ASJ is going to see a lot of targets this week that could really help his upside. Lock in him at the tight end position on Draftkings this week.
- Atlanta Falcons ATL DST ($3,500)
- The Atlanta Falcons will take on the Miami Dolphins this week at home. The Falcons are currently 11.5-point favorites and the Miami Dolphins have an implied total sitting at right around 17.3 DKFP. The Falcons have the following values on the season: 1.5x, 5.2x, 1.2x, and a 1.3x. They get to take on the Miami Dolphins this week who have been allowing 2.5 sacks, .3 fumbles, and 1 INTs per game. They also average only 157 pass yards, 75 rush yards, 8.8 points, and 10.5 fantasy points against. The Dolphins have a case at being the worst offense in the league thus far. I have no problem streaming defenses against this Dolphins team the rest of the year until they show me some life. The Domination Station has an 8.86 DKFP baseline projection which would be good enough for right around 2.53x value. I think that is a pretty solid projection and depending and the Falcons have some decent upside.
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The NFL season is rolling right along and we have a ton of big tournament ahead of us for the week. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NFL so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Austin Sefarian-Jenkins this week! Good luck Army!
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