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PITCHERS:
Chris Archer (vs CHC)
3.45 ERA at Tropicana Field is a full run less than what he has on the road/128 Ks in 94 innings at The Trop, 107 in 92.1 innings on the road… Did post 43 FDP against the Cubs at Wrigley Field earlier this season… Has been bad over his last three outings, but projections absolutely love Archer tonight… Vegas initially had the Rays as -105 favorites, have since gone up to -127… Cubs have a 3.8 IRT, very rare to see this team that low… No Kris Bryant in the Cubs lineup tonight
Zack Godley (@SD)
Numbers have been fantastic over his last three starts: 2-0, 1.29 ERA, including a seven-inning shutout gem with 9 Ks against these same Padres 10 days ago… Padres have the second-highest K-rate (26%) over the month of September
Aaron Nola (vs LAD)
Dodgers got skilled last night (except for the first two batters) by a much worse right-handed pitcher… Nola struck out 11 Marlins in his last start and has at least 34 FDP in three of his last four… Dodgers have the fourth-highest K-rate (25.6%) in MLB over the month of September
Yu Darvish (@PHI)
Phils are tied for the lowest IRT (3.3) on this slate… 2.59 ERA/.208 opp avg in road ballparks this season… Matched up against another ace = added motivation
Chase Anderson (@PIT)
The Pirates bats have been terrible lately… After making contact for most of the season, the Pirates now have the 10th-highest K-rate (23.9%) over the month of September… 2-0, 2.38 ERA vs PIT this season
Mike Montgomery (@TB)
Not a bad cheap option at all, considering the Rays have the highest K-rate (28.2%) over the month of September
STACKS:
Oakland A’s @ Detroit Tigers
Highest game total of the night with terrible pitching all over the joint
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
Who wants to get crazy? The Braves have a lot of “sharp money” coming in on them in Vegas- probably because Scherzer is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA vs ATL this season… Scherzer also has an ERA of 6.35 in three starts this month. On the other side, the Braves are throwing out a young lefty and this one could get ugly early.
Arizona Diamondbacks (@SD, Travis Wood – L)
Plenty of elite D-Backs righties to choose from, this could get ugly
New York Yankees (vs MIN, Jose Berrios – R)
Could be a sneaky play… after all, Berrios has much worse splits on the road
Seattle Mariners (vs TEX, Martin Perez – L)
Perez: 1.52 WHIP/.307 opp avg over his last 31 innings of work… Bad numbers vs SEA
St. Louis Cardinals (@CIN, Robert Stephenson – R)
Stephenson: 1.50 WHIP over his last 26.2 innings
CATCHERS:
Mike Zunino (vs TEX)
1.446 OPS, 2 HR, 5 RBI over the last six games… 3-for-9, 2 HR vs Perez
Wilson Ramos (vs CHC)
Decent numbers against lefties, hitting fifth in the Rays lineup
Yadier Molina (@CIN)
More affordable on FD at $3000… Hitting fifth in a favorable park
Caleb Joseph (vs BOS)
Don’t mind taking a chance on him against a lefty… Good value on both sites
FIRST BASEMEN:
Paul Goldschmidt (@SD)
Excellent matchup against Wood
Matt Olson (@DET)
Homered in four straight games… 7 HR, 12 RBI over the last nine games
Matt Carpenter (@CIN)
Much better value on DK at $3900
Justin Smoak/Kendrys Morales (vs KC)
Excellent matchup against Kennedy, who has allowed 30 HR this season
Danny Valencia (vs TEX)
8-for-25, 2 XBH (1 HR) vs Perez
Wil Myers (vs ARZ)
5-for-12, 2 XBH (1 HR) vs Godley
Miguel Cabrera (vs OAK)
Still way underpriced on both sites ($3000 DK/$2600 FD)
SECOND BASEMEN:
Ian Kinsler (vs OAK)
Had been slumping, but homered last night… Affordable on both sites ($3800 DK/$3000 FD)
Kolten Wong (@CIN)
Leading off for a Cards offense poised to do some damage tonight
Dee Gordon (vs NYM)
5 SB over the last seven games
Brian Dozier (@NYY)
Always dangerous against lefties
THIRD BASEMEN:
Josh Donaldson (vs KC)
MLB-high 1.738 OPS, 5 HR over the last six games
Kyle Seager (vs TEX)
16-for-41, 5 XBH (4 HR) vs Perez
Nick Castellanos (vs OAK)
One of the hottest hitters in baseball is only $3500 on DK
Mike Moustakas (@TOR)
I understand he’s slumping, but a guy with 36 HR is $2400 on FD
Matt Chapman (@DET)
Struggling lately, but he is an incredible value ($3000 DK/$2600 FD)
SHORTSTOPS:
Corey Seager (@PHI)
Tough matchup against Nola, but underpriced on FD at $3100
Paul DeJong (@CIN)
Criminally underpriced at $2900 on FD in one of the best hitting parks
Brandon Crawford (vs COL)
Struggling/worst hitting park in MLB, but great value at $2600 DK/$2400 FD… 3-for-4, 1 XBH vs Marquez
Trevor Story (@SF)
5-for-17, 3 XBH (2 HR) vs Cueto
OUTFIELDERS:
JD Martinez, AJ Pollock (@SD)
* Martinez: Death, taxes and JD against lefties… 4-for-13, 2 XBH (1 HR) vs Wood
* Pollock: 3-for-6, 2 XBH vs Wood
Giancarlo Stanton (vs NYM)
On the pursuit of 60 HR = added motivation… 3-for-6, 2 XBH (1 HR) vs Lugo
Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez (@CIN)
Batting 2-3-4 in the Cards lineup, all of which are a much better value on FD
Nelson Cruz, Guillermo Heredia (vs TEX)
* Cruz: 5-for-16, 3 HR vs Perez
* Heredia: 7-for-16, 2 XBH vs Perez
Mookie Betts (@BAL)
12-for-26, 4 XBH (3 HR) vs Gausman
Shin-Soo Choo (@SEA)
6-for-14, 4 XBH (2 HR) vs Leake
Jayson Werth (@ATL)
A great value of only $3400 DK/$2400 FD against a young lefty… Batting second
Austin Hays (vs BOS)
Been very impressed with this kid since being called up, 3 straight multi-hit games… Platoon advantage… Great value at only $2500 DK/$2400 FD
Eddie Rosario (@NYY)
5 HR over the last seven games
Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra (@SF)
* Gonzalez: 13-for-36, 3 XBH (1 HR) vs Cueto
* Parra: 15-for-43, 6 XBH (2 HR) vs Cueto
Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco (vs MIL)
* Marte: One of the better value plays on this slate ($3500 DK/$3100 FD)
* McCutchen: 7-for-22, 2 XBH (1 HR) vs Anderson
* Polanco: 5-for-22, 4 XBH (3 HR) vs Anderson
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