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Chalk Plays
Kyle Busch ($10,700 – Pole) – Yaaawn another race, another Kyle Busch pole. In his 6 poles this season (not counting road courses) he’s dominated 4 times, but was only a must-play at the 2 Pocono races. He’s going to get his usual 50-60% ownership and has a good chance to lead every lap in the first stage. Things can get dicey at Loudon, but usually not until the latter portion of the race, so fade Busch at your own risk. I recommend going underweight to the field but not too much.
Martin Truex Jr ($10,500 5th) – He’s been a beast all season, dominates all the ovals, and just finds his way to domination no matter where he starts. He was held out of final practice for 30 minutes (inspection violations) but still posted the fastest lap, which means he’ll be the chalk and could go higher owned than both Busch and Logano. With a win in the bag, Truex can take risks the other playoff drivers can’t, so we may see him try different pit strategies or anything he can do to get out in front and steal stage wins. He won more stages than everyone else combined during the regular season, so you know he can do it. This might lead to a situation where he doesn’t pit when he should just to stay in front for the stage win and get shuffled back, but that would require a perfectly timed caution so it’s not terribly likely to happen. If you’re fading him you’re fading him hoping he gets caught up in something but that happened to him last week TWICE and he still fought back to score in the triple digits.
Joey Logano ($8,700 39th) – Joey’s been a non-factor in DFS for quite some time but he’s found his way into our lineups this week at his home track. His woes in inspections have costed him the entirety of his qualifying and final practice. Logano’s already had a race win rescinded for inspection violations which cost him his playoff spot, but as we saw at that race- DraftKings still scored him as the winner. Don’t 100% him but go hefty on him, he has the highest floor by a mile and he’s cheap.
Daniel Suarez ($7,500 25th) – This makes 4 incredibly chalky plays on the slate. This is gonna be a week full of ties unless chaos ensues. Suarez obviously qualified too low for how well his JGR Toyota has been racing lately and he finished 6th at his Loudon debut earlier in the season. He posted top 7 practice times in both final practices and 10 lap averages, he’ll fly up the field if he keeps his nose clean.
Pivots
Kevin Harvick ($10,100 6th) – Harvick finally showed some speed last week, repeatedly beating the likes of Truex, Larson, and Kyle Busch off restarts and posting quick pit stops. Truex and Kyle Busch will suck the ownership out of him as his price is a bit too high, but if his post-qualifying speeds hold up, he’s going to be able to position himself to take the lead sometime during the race. He’s finished top 5 in 5 of the last 6 Loudon races and won this playoff race last year.
Matt Kenseth ($9,400 10th) – Kenseth looooves New Hampshire. It’s been really good to him as of late. So good that since 2013 he’s posted 3 wins and 7 top 6 finishes. He’s starting 10th which gives him some decent place differential to work with.
Fades
Kasey Kahne ($7,400 9th) – He qualified too damn high!
David Ragan ($5,800 21st) – He qualified way too damn high!
Value Plays
Ty Dillon ($6,700 30th) – These are Ty Dillon’s most recent results when starting 30th or worse: 22nd, 21st, 17th, 16th, 28th, 20th. He also moved from 25th to 16th at this race a few months ago. He has 16 lead lap finishes on the year which is more than the likes of Ryan Blaney, Dale Jr, Kasey Kahne, and his brother Austin. He’s the gift that keeps on giving!
Aric Almirola ($6,500 29th) – A great track record here and a car that likes to sneak up the field. (if he can stay on the lead lap)
Danica Patrick ($6,100 27th) – This is a good starting position for her, she had been qualifying in the teens the last few races. She’s finished in the teens the last few times here and that’s where shes been practicing at.
Michael McDowell ($6,000 31st) – He was the value play that didn’t go anywhere last week, but to be fair it was at his worst track. Questions loom about the team’s future with Kasey Kahne taking over in 2018 so proceed with caution here, but 31st is a juicy starting spot. He’s been able to stay on the lead laps
This has been Taco guest writing for Brady as he’s on the road. Keep an eye on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed upand get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry.As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash