Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
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Course Preview
After no event last weekend golf is back! This week the 70 players remaining in the FedEx Cup Playoffs square off with the top 30 in the standings moving onto the championship. The tournament is taking place at Conway Farms Golf Club in Chicago, Illinois. The BMW Championship rotates courses each year so for course history look at 2013 and 2015 for your info.
Conway Farms is a par 71 playing 7,209 yards this week. Well relatively average in length the course features three par fives that are 585, 595 and 600 yards, meaning the rest of the course plays relatively short. Of the 11 par fours, 7 are less than 460 yards. As a result, I will be targeting players who have performed well on shorter par fours and longer par fives.
For the course design, we see wide-open fairways, meaning I will be leaning driving distance over accuracy. However, most pros have noted the course is really a second short course. As a result, Shots Gained Approach will be incredibly important. Shots gained approach is always a crucial metric and this week will be no different, I will be using our PGA Research Station to track players who have been gaining strokes on the field over the past three rounds specifically.
Finally, with only 70 players and no cut, I cannot stress how important birdie or better % is. The event features (for the most part) the top 70 on tour this season, all the guys have shown they can compete and going through the list of names you can realistically make a case for the majority of this field to have a chance at winning this week. Finding the guys who can go on streaks and put up big points on DraftKings and FanDuel will be the way to gain an edge.
As far as cash games go tweaks must be made to strategy in these small field, no cut events. Last week without a PGA tournament I went over how I personally change my strategy in this VIP article. Not a member and want to check it out? No problem, sign up for a free month using the code here.
Picks
Jason Day – All formats – DK: $9600 FD: $9100
If I keep writing him up he has got to win eventually right? Day keeps putting together three great rounds accompanied by one not so great round. Despite this Day has finished inside of the top 30 in his last five tournaments with two top tens in that stretch. Throughout this time Day has been scoring, last week he had five more birdies than the winner, Justin Thomas. Day is no stranger to this course, winning in 2015 and coming 4th in 2013 he has shown an ability to compete and win here.
Paul Casey – Cash games – DK: $9200 FD: $9000
If you have not been taking Paul Casey the past few weeks you have not been paying attention. Casey has been on a run finishing no worse than 26th in his last ten tournaments and has come T4 and 5th the last 2 weeks. Not only has Casey been playing well but he has been scoring well fantasy wise, with 20 and 19 birdies in his last two events Casey has been racking up points for fantasy owners. Casey’s price is to low given his initial odds to win the tournament and we should expect to see Casey well over 50% owned in cash games just like two weeks ago.
Daniel Berger – GPP – DK: $7500 FD:$7300
Berger has cooled off a bit after his win and second place a few months ago which should suppress ownership. With that being said I like Berger this week because of his upside. When he is on Berger makes birdies and has the approach game that lines up well for the short par fours. With no cut and the birdie making potential Berger will be in a lot of my GPP’s this week.
Patrick Reed – DraftKings value – DK: $8000 FD: $8400
My least favourite golfer is back in good form and seeing a surprising price reduction on DraftKings. Despite just finishing T6 at the Dell Technologies Championship Reed is priced lower in a similar field. Given his recent performance and knowing the player he can be Reed’s price simply does not match his ability on DraftKings and we should take advantage of that.
Pat Perez – FanDuel value – DK: $7600 FD:5200
Perez is the 15th lowest salary on FanDuel and that really does not make sense given how he has played this PGA season. Perez is arguably the bounce back player of the year this season and showed good form last event finishing 6th. With 8 in a roster, Perez allows you to spend up later well being a solid play himself given his price point.
Other DFS Army PGA Golf Tools and Articles
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