Welcome to NFL DFS #TheWishbone! Some of you might not even know what a wishbone is, and I’m about to date myself here. The Wishbone, before passing became so prolific, was perhaps the most powerful running formation in all of football. I mean back when grampa played with leather helmets and no face mask to grab. The last vestiges of the Wishbone were finally eradicated somewhere in the 1980s from the Big8 and Southwest conferences, later rebranded the Big12.
The wishbone is a powerhouse formation designed for ground and pound, move the chains, bend over here it comes and we are telling you about it type football. However, within that formation came a ton of options, reads, cutbacks, and even some passing plays. Like DFS, the wishbone was the chalk, but from the wishbone evolved a lot of contrarian plays. Now, that your history is current, and you undoubtedly see where I’m going with this article, let’s “dive” in. (Hopefully, some of you got that last little pun there.)
By the way, my name is @Choppodong (give me a follow out on Twitter) and I am a contributor and coach for the DFS Army. We don’t build lineups for you. Instead, we teach you how to build your own fundamentally competitive lineups. If you are the type of player that takes pride in his/her research, you might be just who we are looking for. In fact, I have another few hundred buddies inside just waiting to meet another player that can bring yet another unique perspective to the group. There is nothing quite like a few hundred like-minded DFSers chatting throughout the week and getting better through groupthink. I promise nothing else you’ve experienced compares.
DFS Army NFL Week in Review
If you didn’t have a big piece of that GB/ATL game, you were in trouble. Army contributors called that shot throughout the week and mentioned it in every article, podcast, and chart we shared. That game made and lost people money as dramatically as I can ever remember a game doing.
Tom Brady was more than a little ticked off and it showed. While big 3 of the big four QBs on the week had solid games (sorry Matt Ryan), Angry Tom won the slate with 31 Fanduel points and 34 Draftkings points on his 30 of 39 passing for 447 yards and 3 TDs with no picks. Sort of what we expected he could do against a secondary Sam Bradford just torched 6 days prior.
C.J. Anderson may have won the RB slate, but it was Ty Montgomery we were all using in both formats (cash and gpp). TyMont’s versatility made for a game script independent back getting tons of usage in an expected shootout of a game. He posted 10 carries for 35 yards and a touchdown (from the 3 yard line showing usage as the goal line back, too). Ty also added in a lot of receiving work catching 6 balls for another 75 yards and another touchdown for a total of 26 points on Fanduel and 29 on Draftkings.
You might not have used Michael Crabtree yesterday, but if you didn’t hear of his hat trick of touchdowns you likely sleep under a rock. While many were chasing the Amari Cooper points and sudden “red zone work,” sharper minds from the Army told you the safer play was Crabtree. He bounced back in a big way scoring 29 Fanduel points and 32 Draftkings points by posting a line of 6 receptions for 80 yards and, of course, those 3 TDs. Another outstanding shout out went to J.J. Nelson of the Arizona Cardinals. Most of the world loved Larry Fitzgerald, and so did we, but upon receiving word John Brown was having issues and wasn’t going to play, we knew that opened up a ton of targets for J.J. for cheap. 5 receptions on 7 targets later, we had 120 receiving yards and a TD for the lowly Draftkings price of $3800. The Army contributors also alerted you to Keenan Allen and told you to shy away from Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs once Sam Bradford popped up with knee issues.
All in all, most of the DFS Army community seemed to have a great week judging by the vibe inside our exclusive Slack Community. Hats off to a great start to the season with two winning weeks!!
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Big NFL DFS Wins from Our VIPs
Here are a few of the highlight reel wins from Week 2. If you post your lineup in our VIP slack channel #WinningLineups, there is a great chance you make the photo reel in our recap. Start listening for the term “Ladder System” because it’s featured throughout our weekend of winnings. Click that link to learn for yourself why many of our players are mastering DFS when they struggled before.
These scrolling lineups are but a few of the dozens upon dozens of winners freely posting their lineups for us to share. We love bragging on our membership!!
Week 2 NFL Vegas Odds Table
We can talk about a lot of things, but when it comes to the NFL, I like keeping things simple at first. Implied columns are the individual team’s implied total. The favorite is obviously the favored team in Vegas. The underdog is obviously the underdog. And, the spread is the point differential Vegas feels the final score will display. We use all of these parameters to predict game scripts and prioritize the games we plan to attack for the upcoming week.
A large spread often indicates the favored team will be winning by a comfortable margin as the game nears the end. We can use this to predict a running back’s usage in the 4th quarter, or even earlier. A high implied total can indicate several touchdowns to be spread around amongst the key players. And, when both teams have a high implied total, but the spread is small, it can indicate a possible shootout with the offenses just going back and forth allowing our DFS NFL players to feast on points like Amazon piranhas surrounding a capybara. Generally speaking, we are attracted to the green and leery of the red in this graphic.
DFS NFL Definition of the Week – Pivot
We were asked in our Slack Community for this definition, so I felt being last week’s was “chalk” that this week’s perfect term would be “pivot.” A “pivot” play simply means you zig when your opponents zag. If you can safely assume the players the majority of your opponents will be using, you can look to the players also in good spots they are overlooking. Last week’s example of Julio Jones and Antonio Brown is a perfect one. The ATL game was being talked up in a big way, and most of the DFS community was touting Julio Jones as a great “chalk” play. It was very easy to pick up on him as the top receiving weapon in the highest pricing tier. Conversely, no one was talking about Antonio Brown….who also is priced in the top tier. Antonio was playing at home, favored, and the Steelers were implied to score a ton of points against the visiting Vikings. In tournaments, it made a ton of sense to get away from Julio (knowing a very large percentage of players were looking to use him) and roster Antonio instead. Your “pivot” here is simply a sideways move off of one play onto another. Your hope is that while Julio is in a great spot, he still disappoints his owners. And, the double whammy is the hope that Antonio has a great game and you reap the benefits of scoring all the points the Julio people missed out on.
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NFL Week 2 Game Spotlights
We won’t break down every NFL game for you in this piece. But, we will cover some of the projected popular games most of the DFS world will be attacking. If you want a complete breakdown (and who doesn’t?), check out the Geek’s Vegas Lines Podcast. A thorough discussion of gameflow, players to watch and some gpp pivots to help you make accurate decisions for the week.
Before you look at the difference between my obviously archaic graphics and the things of beauty I’m about to bestow upon you, I want to give a special shoutout to my favorite math major, Burns273. These graphics (when I can get them early enough) are part of our VIP exclusive “NFL Research Station” which contains stats, greens and reds, DvP, passing attack zones for specific secondary matchups, key players, and many more features at our VIP’s disposal this year. If you can’t tell the difference between a Burns graphic and a Choppodong graphic, you might be an MLB umpire…..cuz you blind!
PIT @ CHI
This game intrigues me. It contains some mixed signals that will serve to lead our DFS competitors astray. Ben Roethlisberger and his road splits. The big Vegas spread telling us the game should be in Le’Veon Bell’s hands late. But, Le’Veon hasn’t gotten off to a quick start and people are souring on him quickly at his current pricing levels. Jordan Howard possibly injured, and Tarik Cohen maybe scripted to see a lot of work in this one, too. Such an interesting game to dissect. I’m fascinated by it, but we need news. So, this one will have to wait until later in the week where our VIPs get the latest info.
HOU @ NEP
There is not a doubt in my mind that the Texans have an elite defense. But, this is also New England, and Tom Brady appeared back on track……vs NOS. The 13 point spread indicates this is going to be a Mike Gillislee game at some point. I have no issues using him in cash games, either, if he cracks my top 5 RBs. I’ve seen enough to know he has assumed the LaGarrett Blount role in New England. I don’t have any idea what HOU has planned to keep up. My hunch is nothing. Hello 1-2. The Texans just don’t have the weapons to outscore the Pats in this one, especially in Foxboro. I won’t have any HOU players on my rosters.
NOS @ CAR
Do we really trust Cam Newton? I mean, it is New Orleans. That will be the chalk question people will ask regarding this game. That’s a big spread and a higher total than I was expecting based on what disappointment I’ve seen from Panthers players so far. And, they just lost Greg Olsen for quite some time, too. Drew Brees has road splits, too. Add in the CAR defense has played well, and also add most meetings between these two have been of the lower scoring variety and I just don’t see this one being as juicy as people are going to think it is.
OAK @ WAS
Here is your 2nd consecutive Sunday Night Hammer game. We in the DFS community are getting spoiled by the 50+ point game totals. While WAS has gotten off to a rusty start, offensively, the Raiders have not. I’m looking forward to seeing more points in this one, but I really don’t think the game will sneak up on anyone. This should be the chalky game of the week again. If you didn’t have pieces of the GB/ATL game, don’t let it happen to you again.
Chop’s NFL Chalk Talk
If you love you some chalk, you might want to skim this section and take a few notes. These players project, as of now, to be your more popular plays at each position. In cash games, we don’t mind tasting the powder. The popular, obvious plays are ranked high for a reason……they are good! In fact, I contend if you rostered the highest owned player at each position in 100 head to head contests, you can’t be beat. Everyone else will make just enough mistakes along the way, and you wind up showing profit over the season.
If you are a VIP member inside the Army, you will have access to an even more detailed piece called “Box Checkers” where I show you exactly why some players are chalky and why you should be rostering many of them anyway. I will show you the categories and strongest indicators that typically bring value for each position. We will then select a bunch of players and simply “check the boxes” as we determine just how strong an individual play is. Let’s taste some powder!!
QB – Usually a rather spread out position for ownership, it’s difficult to find the true chalk here. With such an even point distribution across most of the position, the choices are just so wide open most weeks.
Tom Brady – People roster who they like watching and Touchdown Tom is on top of that list most weeks. Put him at home and make him a huge favorite, and DFS players just lock and load. Of course, the sharper minds take note of that spread. Dull minds chase the 4 TDs from last week and think he will throw for 600 yards this week with 8 TDs.
Derek Carr – Sunday Night Hammer Play along with his hot start to the season. People around the NFL see the 46/60 for 492 yards and 5 TDs and realize he wasn’t used in the 2nd half of week 2 much due to game flow. Those same people want a piece of that 54 point game total vs WAS in week 3.
RB – I can tell you LeVeon Bell and David Johnson will be weekly features. Let’s talk about some others instead.
Jay Ajayi – We all know Ajayi can break off 200 yard games in the toughest matchups. And, we expect him to get a lot of carries against the lowly Jets as the game winds down. There isn’t likely a better matchup on the slate for a workhorse running back. Look for a big game from Ajayi even with the Dolphins being on the road.
Kareem Hunt – Can anyone get off to a better start? Does anyone remember Hunt put his first carry on the deck for a turnover in NE? This little dynamo has certainly put those early fears to bed, and he looks like the real deal. I’m sure those fearing missing the train will hop on this week in his matchup against the division rival Chargers out west. He only followed up his 43 fantasy point debut with another 23 this week. However, he is also the 2nd highest priced back on Fanduel next to Le’Veon Bell. The bargain sure didn’t last long.
WR – On FanDuel, you should be focusing on touchdowns and red zone work. On DraftKings, we can favor reception volume more.
Devante Adams – When Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb went down with injuries, Adams became the defacto go-to. I’m going to assume most people took that as an obvious sign going forward should those two receivers stay hobbled. Look for Adams to be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. Rodgers has to throw to someone.
Michael Crabtree – I laughed in week one when the Raiders threw three in a row to Amari Cooper and he proceeded to drop them all. When Crabtree has been the dominant red zone target over the past couple of years, you had to know that was going to correct itself. Well, no one figured it would be the very next week to the tune of 3 touchdowns. I’ll take it, though, and I’ll continue to roster Crabtree as long as he finds himself in good matchups, which he does again this week.
TE – Perhaps the most volatile of the NFL skilled positions, knowing some chalk here becomes quite important.
Zach Ertz – His QB, Carson Wentz, finds himself in another really nice spot this week. That should lead to a lot of targets for Ertz yet again. So far, Wentz’ favorite target averages 9 per game, has 13 receptions (both 2nd in the league), and carries a 22% target share of the PHI offense. Cash safe isn’t a phrase you often find when it comes to TEs. But, it’s becoming so with Ertz……and everybody knows it.
DST – Another volatile NFL position, but chalk emerges more predictably most weeks.
New England Patriots – Put a defense at home with a large spread and you will find yourself one giant piece of chalk to chew on. Enough said.
Miami Dolphins – Put a defense up against the New York Jets and you will find yourself one giant piece of chalk to chew on. Wow…enough said again. That was easy.
K – I don’t cover a lot of kickers. My default criteria for them is very simple, however.
I want them favored, at home, and implied to score over 24 points. I prefer them in good weather, too. From there, I simply find the cheapest meeting all these criteria and bam……I have my kicker. Pretty simple. If you want more sophisticated advice, I recommend you read Kicker’s Corner. PVAaron writes the kicker’s article, and it drops most Wednesdays.
The Fine Print
Disclaimer – As will all my writing, my job is to put you on the popular plays….the sound plays. From there, you can determine for yourself where and when to get off them. I am a better cash player than GPP player; therefore, you can easily use my chalk plays to find similar, but lower owned, plays for yourself. And, you can also use me to help you learn the fundamentals if you are just starting out. The cash players are often highly owned. They are highly owned for a reason…they are in the best spots, the obvious spots. When you graduate from my school of the obvious, you are ready to ask Keith, Al, the Geek, Donuts, and our other coaches for their opinions on more sophisticated endeavors. But, you can only do so as a VIP. Our Slack chat forum is where the magic happens, and it’s where these coaches live!!
Come back next week because we will break this all down again. Don’t forget to use code CHOP for your discount when signing up at DFSArmy.com to unlock your 20% discount. And, don’t forget to give me a follow out on Twitter via the link back at the top. I am usually trying to foster discussion out there, too.