Welcome back to the DFS Army’s flagship NFL podcast “Geek’s Vegas Lines for Fanduel and Draftkings” where Kevin aka “The Football Geek” and yours truly, Choppodong, dive in to break down each and every game on the NFL slate. Kevin is the 5-star general in the DFS Army and also top ranked on Rotogrinders in both NFL and MMA. And, I’m your lovable host and chalk eater specializing in teaching our newer members the fundamentals of player selection, contest selection, and bankroll management. Together, Kevin and I team up each and every week of the NFL season to point you in the right direction when it comes to gameflow, trends, analysis, and relevant statistics from both a cash and tournament perspective.
We both also go by the same names in the Army and out on Twitter. Kevin’s handle is @Ffootballgeek, and I am @Choppodong. Feel free to give us a follow.
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Week 1 Rewind
Week 1 came out of the gates hot! We had quite a few big winners from inside the Army while the rest of the industry fell pretty flat from those boring, lower scoring games. Our coaches were advocating possible fades of both David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell in tourneys and using Todd Gurley, LeSean McCoy or even Carlos Hyde instead. Also highly recommended were the Rams defense across the board and picking up Cooper Kupp as a cheap pivot off the obvious punt play Kendall Wright. In many cases, those plays were enough to steer you clear of the major landmines and vault you up the leaderboards.
Here is just a sample of the screenshots our members shared with us inside our VIP Slack Channels.
Week Two DFS NFL Games
- Great spot for Thursday Fade, which might not be much of a thing anymore being such a well-known strategy.
- No one here should have enough big game ability to hurt you compared to possibly being overinflated with ownerships.
- TEN in bad spot on road. JAX is tough on defense and we tend to shy away from road teams.
- Marquise Lee and Allen Hurns are cheap, but they have a Blake Bortles throwing to them who couldn’t find wide open Allen Robinson consistently.
- Fournette gets work, but we may like other RBs a bit better this week with the big spreads and few high totals.
- We aren’t playing Browns. Maybe Coleman that factors to be getting garbage time later in the game.
- BAL defense chalky, but in great spot.
- Flacco only attempted 17 passes. Game script favors running backs here. West/Allen in committee, and we see predictable workloads elsewhere.
- Possibly LeSean McCoy, but being road dog is very risky. Workload should be there, however.
- Olsen/KBenj dependent on Newton. Newton air-mailing receivers is still untrustworthy even in great paper spot.
- McCaffrey looks like he will be used, but JStew still a factor. Don’t see CAR overusing CMC this early in the season.
- CHALK ALERT!!
- Hard game to peg. We get naked quarterbacks here like the sky is “raining men.” Both are in play for sure.
- Running games hard to predict, but Geek has a premonition regarding an odd scenario possibility.
- You are going to want as many pieces of this game as you can grab. But, trusting them in offenses set to spread the ball around so much makes it a risky endeavor.
- Fleener might be the preferred TE on the slate. Home, favored, cheap, being targeted this year?
- Geek loves the ARI defense. Obvious spot, but compared to all the industry talk might wind up oddly sneaky.
- Kerwynn worth picking up in season long, and playable here, but not super strong play considering other backs in DFS and their matchups.
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- Alex Smith is what he is. Don’t fall in the trap!
- Hunt factors in as tier 2 RB this week being home favorite getting work. Hill possibly. Kelce likely removed by great PHI defense vs TE.
- Not a lot to love from PHI on road. Ertz possible, but not the best spot to go back to. KC defense always in play at home.
- Not trusting MIN on road even after game 1. Feels like point chasing. PIT defense not necessarily elite, but good enough we temper expectations.
- Fire up PIT offensive weapons! A little underowned likely due to Bell having bad opener. All the Killer B’s in play in either format.
- Cohen in same spot as last week. Underdog game script figures to give him similar workload. Rest of Bears are meh.
- Bucs at home might be unpredictable not knowing where their head is after hurricane. Great spot, but might wait and see.
- Quizz might be best play, and Hard Knocks showed mad respect for DJax. Tampa just carries a few questions w/o a game under their belts.
- Chargers shut-down corners will make it hard on MIA outside receivers. Landry in slot?
- Ajayi can always have random huge games, but being road dog in first game isn’t exactly a safe bet. Deep GPP type play.
- Lots of Keenan Allen, Tyrell, and a pass-catching GorDON make Rivers slightly playable at home. Keenan a top play after 10+ targets in week 1.
- Gordon in great paper spot making him a top RB play, if not the top RB play, on the slate.
- Charger defense also in play vs Jay Cutler’s tendency to force throws.
- Hard pass on any Jets. Don’t overthink this one.
- OAK defense will be uber chalk.
- Odd game for offensive weapons with such a huge spread. Lynch definitely in play. Carr, Crabtree, Cooper interesting. They will do the damage to get OAK the lead, but will they be used late in game?
- Cousins shouldn’t look as bad as in week 1. Don’t fall victim to recency bias here. Although far from a top play at QB, don’t drop or trade him in your season longs.
- Goff again? Geek doesn’t understand that move, either. Another possible overreaction.
- Gurley had 2.0 YPC in a lot of work. Rushing ability will get lost in 5 rec for 25 yds and the TD.
- Kupp playable, but not a super safe play, either.
- Zeke should be eatin’!! Picked up right where he led off leading the league last week in total touches among RBs. Viable in all formats.
- Avoid Dez vs elite corners in DEN.
- DEN defense downgraded a bit due to DAL’s ball control style.
- DEN offense in play here. DT, Manny, CJ, all playable vs non-intimidating DAL defense.
- Fade anything wearing red in this game. Yuck.
- Fire up anything wearing green in this game. Wilson, Baldwin, Graham, even secondary receivers and defense all set for nice bounceback spot.
- I don’t know what else to say. Just play them all.
- CHALK ALERT part deux.
- You can talk the MNF game. I’m going to finish this cig after blowing my wad on the Sunday Night Hammer. I’m doneskies here….
- Maybe some Tate. Maybe some OBJ if he plays. Most in this game are unplayable. Crap way to end slate.
Before We Let You Go…
Thanks for listening! Come back Friday as The Football Geek releases the VIP only podcast. This exclusive podcast features even more in the way of player picks/recommendations, game theory analysis, and will bring in the occasional guest host with the Geek to discuss all angles of DFS NFL. Remember to follow our leaders on Twitter and use the coupon code 20-OFF with your DFS Army subscription to unlock this private podcast! Dismissed, soldiers!!