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Forslund’s Full Mount – UFC Fight Night 116 DFS MMA Breakdown

Welcome again to another edition.  For yet another week, we have lost a fight.  This was already a smaller card than normal with 11 fights.  Now that we only have 10 fights please don’t go crazy with lineups.  I am personally only playing cash and probably the 3-entry max. But, there is money to be had.  VIP’s can find me in slack with any questions you might have.  Plus stay tuned!  Friday night I will have a new feature available only for VIP’S.  Let’s get down to breaking these fights down.

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Burns (-140) 8.3k vs Saggo (+120) 7.9k

Burns has a very good ground game.  Although, his last few fights he has strayed away from that.  I look for Burns to get back to his wrestling in this fight.  Saggo has shown he can very easily get takedown down.  As he has only been able to stop them 20% of the time.  Saggo will want to keep this fight standing as long as possible.  I, just don’t think he will be able to.  For these reasons, I like Burns in cash.  He should be able to land quite a few tds and has a very good floor even in a loss. In GPP I will have exposure to both, with more exposure to Burns.

Jotko (-200) 8.9k vs Hall (+170) 7.3k

Jotko is coming in at a pretty hefty price for a fight likely to end in a decision.  He does have a good all-around game.  Just, nothing stands out to me.  Hall is coming off of 3 straight losses.  So, you know he is pressing for a win. In a loss, Hall is basically punching his pink ticket out of the UFC.  Like I stated this fight is most likely going the distance.  For that reason alone, I can’t justify paying that price on Jotko.  Hall, on the other hand, I don’t mind using as a punt.  There isn’t much value on this card. So taking a chance on him isn’t the worst play in all formats.

Hamilton (-200) 8.8k vs Spitz (+180) 7.4k

This is a GPP fight only for me.  Hamilton has shown he has a very weak chin.  He does have some upside with TDs but, that’s about it.  Spitz is coming into this fight with a huge reach advantage.  The only problem is he has cardio issues.  Most likely this fight will end up being low scoring.  So it’s not a fight I love a ton.  Hamilton should win but, most likely score low.  I don’t mind if you decide to use Spitz in cash to pay up for some favorites.  Its just the direction I am going in cash currently.

Aubin-Mercier (-120) 8.4k vs Martin (+100) 7.8k

Aubin-Mercier (OAM) is a very good wrestler with a great submission game. He basically uses his standup up to get you to the mat.  If he gets top control, he is very hard to bet.  Martin isn’t a slouch when it comes to wrestling.  In fact, he has faced much tougher competition at this point then OAM.  He also has very good leg kicks.  I think they will end up standing more this fight, as their wrestling will cancel each other out.  I love Martin at his price in cash and gpp. If building more then 10 lineups I would maybe use OAM in 1-2.

Ledet (-400) 9.1k vs Anyanwu (+350) 7.1k

Let’s keep this short and sweet! I love Ledet in all formats.  He will have a big reach advantage and is a very good striker.  Anyanwu is taking this fight on short notice and is a very low output striker.  He is a complete fade for me.  I won’t be 100% in on Ledet but, will have a lot of exposure to him.

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Usman (-800) 9.2k vs Moraes (+550) 7k

Usman is a good striker. Who likes to grind his opponents against the cage.  4 of his last fights have gone to a decision.  Moraes is a very low out put striker.  I don’t know how much exposure I want to this fight.  Usman will be very popular because of his odds.  I just don’t like his upside a ton for his price.  Moraes has been known to look for the submission in his fights.  I don’t like this fight for cash because of this.  I think its ok to target both sides in gpps.  I can just see this being lower scoring then some think it will be.

Gillespie (-450) 9.4k vs Gonzalez (+360) 6.8k

Gillespie is the highest priced fighter.  Although the Vegas odds don’t dictate that. He has really quick hands and is a good wrestler.  He also hasn’t lost.  Gonzalez has had 7 of his last 11 wins come via submission.  Yes, he is the bigger fighter here but, he has also shown he is easy to takedown.  I love Gillespie in cash and GPP.  Don’t force yourself to punt lower then you want to in a GPP. But, if you can make him fit, do it!  I might have 1 GPP lineup with Gonzalez because this is MMA.  Just look at Martins from last week.

Smith (-110) 8.1k vs Lombard (-110) 8.1k

This is a toss-up fight.  Both fighters aren’t great and Vegas has it at a coin flip.  I will be keeping an eye on which way odds swing after weigh-ins.  Smith is the younger fighter with a reach and height advantage.  Lombard is nearing the end of his career.  He has good power.  He starts off very quickly in his fights but, then gasses quickly.  If Smith can outlast this initial burst I like his chances.  Plus he lands at a higher rate of 3.3 SS’s to Lombard’s 2.5.  This is probably a fight you should hedge in GPPs.  I might have a little more of Smith.  Not a fight to target in cash!

Perry (-470) 8.5k vs Reyes (+375) 7.7k

This is your free square in all formats!  Reyes is taking this fight on 3 days notice.  Perry has 1 punch KO power.  Lock him in cash!  I will also use him a lot in GPPs.  I might have a lineup or 2 without him if building more than 10 lineups just in case Reyes doesn’t just run from him the whole fight.  If you are feeling brave, you could throw Reyes in a lineup he will be very low owned.

Rockhold (-550) 9.3k vs Branch (+425) 6.9k

This is the main event so, its scheduled to go 5 rounds.  I don’t hate stacking this fight in cash.  I haven’t decided if that’s what I am going to do yet.  Rockhold is a good striker with very good leg kicks.  He is also very good on the ground.  His last fight against Bisping he got knocked out and hasn’t fought since.  Branch has good TD defense and has ok power.  I am hesitant to stack this fight in cash because I don’t know if Rockhold can take a shot. I like using Branch in cash because it allows me to pay up for fighters that I like.  In GPPs though, I like Rockhold because he will be lower owned then he should be.  If making 3 lineups I will have Rockhold in 1 for sure. Just don’t go all in on this fight it could be low scoring.

Good luck!!  Hope to talk to everyone in Slack!

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