Welcome to another edition! First off this card just took a huge hit losing its main event. DJ was a cash game lock! Also, DraftKings did pricing for this fight before odds were released. So, there is tons of value. I will look to point you in the right direction of which fights to target and why. As always you can ask me in Slack any questions you may have. Let’s get on to breaking these fights down.
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Martins (-400) 9k vs Johnson (+325) 7.2k
This is a GPP fight for me only and I am only looking to target 1 side of this fight. Martins is a black belt in Judo and BJJ. He also has big power, along with decent kicks. The only thing that makes me hesitant to recommend him in cash is he lands at a small rate of only 1.8 significant strikes per minute (SS). But, Vegas likes his chances to finish inside the distance (ITD) of -130. The highest on the card. Johnson, on the other hand, has shown in the past that he tends to gas fairly quickly and often gets hurt. Johnson is a completely fade for me! I will have some Martins though in gpp especially because I think he won’t be as highly owned as others in this price range.
Bhullar (-185) 7.9k vs Henrique (+160) 8.3k
Before the DJ news, I really liked Bhullar in cash. While I don’t hate the play. I find myself paying up now. Bhullar is 1 of many Olympic wrestlers on this card, but there isn’t much I could find of any footage of his fights. From what I did, he has decent ground and pound. He does carry some upside with takedowns and a decent ITD of +150. I think he will be very popular in all formats. Henrique has shown that he can struggle against good wrestlers so at his price I don’t like him unless you are building more than 10 lineups in a GPP. So, I think we can gain an edge here in cash by moving off Bhullar but, having some exposure to him in GPP. Just realize he will be fairly popular.
White (-190) 7.4k vs Clarke (+165) 8.8k
This is a fight DraftKings mispriced. White is the 4th cheapest fighter but is a favorite at -190. He has good leg kicks, is also a good boxer. Plus he often times looks for the TD. Clarke meanwhile, has shown that he can be taken down. At his high price, I am fading Clarke. But, I love White for his price in all formats. Vegas also likes this to go to a decision. So, White should be able to get some TD’s and score well for his price.
Tucker (-260) 8.4k vs Glenn (+220) 7.8k
This is a fight I want some exposure to. Tucker is a fairly high output striker with decent power. He is also quick and has also shown to have good footwork. Glenn is pretty lengthy with a decent chin. For that reason, I really like Tucker in cash. Vegas likes this fight to go to a decision. So, I think Tucker can rack up points with SS’s. I will also use him some in GPP as well. Just don’t go overboard with him there. Since he might have a lower ceiling than some in his price range. I might have 1 lineup with Glenn if I am building a ton of lineups.
Evans-Smith (-260) 8.7k vs Moras (+220) 7.5k
This fight doesn’t interest me that much. Evans-Smith has shown she is a decent wrestler. The only problem is she isn’t very active period. Moras is lacking in her TD defense. So for that reason alone, I want some exposure to Evans-Smith in gpp because I think she might be low owned.
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Cejudo (-330) 9.1k vs Reis (+270) 7.1k
Cejudo is an Olympic wrestler, with good body kicks, power, and good submissions. He is a very active fighter landing 3.5 SS’s. Reis meanwhile, is a good grappler and wrestler. Vegas likes this to go to a decision. I like Cejudo in cash especially because of his high output. Reis I might have a very small amount if building over 10 lineups.
McMann (-260) 8.9k vs Vieira (+220) 7.3k
McMann is an Olympic wrestler. She has a good submission game. Plus, she has improved her striking and has decent power. Vieira has shown decent TD defense, I don’t think she has faced a caliber wrestler that McMann is. I like McMann in all formats but mostly in cash. I think its very likely she wins. Just be sure you have some shares of others around her in price. Viera is a fade for me.
Pedro (-130) 7.7k vs Latifi (+110) 8.5k
This is a must target fight for GPPs. I won’t be all in on this fight but, will have plenty of exposure to it. Since Vegas really likes this fight to end inside the distance. Pedro is the favorite currently. He likes to work in the clinch and has good knees. He also has shown to have a pretty good chin. Latifi, while he is pretty short in this weight class, has never been taken down in the UFC. Plus he has big power in his hands. I think Pedro will be popular everywhere. I personally like him more in GPPs. But for that reason, I also want some exposure to Latifi in a fight likely to end early at low ownership.
Stephens (-115) 8.2k vs Melendez (-105) 8k
Stephens does have big power and leg kicks. But his cardio has been very suspect lately. Melendez is a good wrestler that looks for the TD. He lands 3.8 SS’s. My only concern with Menendez is he is dropping in weight class. Overall I won’t be using either of these 2. But if I have to use 1 Melendez makes the most sense.
Dos Anjos (-190) 8.6k vs Magny (+165) 7.6k
Dos Anjos has decent power and good leg kicks. Magny will have a 10-inch reach advantage, along with good leg kicks and grappling. He isn’t the most active fighter. For that reason, I will mostly be fading Magny. Dos Anjos peaks my interest some for GPP. He won’t be super popular but, is very likely to win. For that reason use him some.
Shevchenko (-130) 8.1k vs Nunes (+110) 8.1k
This has now become the main event. I love stacking this fight in cash. They should score over 125 pts combined. Nunes is a very good striker, has good kicks and lands at a decent rate. Her main flaw is she tends to gas the longer it goes. Since this is a 5 rd fight that concerns me some. Shevchenko is mainly a counter striker but, with very good leg kicks. She does land at a low rate of 2.5 SS’s but, has never shown cardio issues. I will have exposure to both in GPPs. Most likely a 60-40 split. My lean currently is Nunes. If my opinion changes, I will let everyone know in Slack.
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