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Daily Fantasy eSports – Worlds Play-in Knockout Stage Draftkings Breakdown

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Slate Overview

During the Groups Stage, every game was a best-of-1, now we have to shift our game over to a best-of-5 mentality.  There’s a larger number of games which reduces variance, and we have to consider games not played and substitute players.  In the best-of-1s teams generally played their starters unless it was a one-sided gimme game.  Now we’re going to see subs steal a game or two each series- each team has 1 sub.  This is a perfect slate to practice on before the big 10K $5 tournament next week.  Losers go home.

 

Cloud9 (North America)  vs Lyon Gaming (Latin America)

Cloud9

Cloud9 are expected to stomp here.  Lyon only made it through because they were in the same group as Gambit- perhaps the worst team in Worlds.  Cloud9 crushed its way through a cake group with 4 quick and decisive victories.  They had by far the lowest average game time (26 mins) and it hurt their FP scoring, especially for the team slot.  The team slot takes another hit when you consider the last 2 likely games won’t be played.  Players will default to a 20 pt bonus for each game with the team slot getting 15 points.

Their mid-laner Jensen could easily be the highest owned player.  Their play runs through the synergy of him and their jungler Contractz- who has been a monster all group stage.  Contractz has an excellent 80% kill participation rate and Jensen isn’t far behind at 75%.  Compare that to their ADC Sneaky who only contributes on 57% of kills and it’s clear as day who the offense funnels through.  Impact in the top lane would make for a fine play if it weren’t for the looming presence of sub Ray.  Smoothie will be chalky as he’s the cheapest piece of this team.

Lyon Gaming

I always say if you’re going to punt from a team likely to get smashed use their top laner or jungler over their support.  They score in the negative more often than not since they don’t farm and that might happen here.  Lyon played 2 games against WE who’s a comparable opponent to Cloud9.  In the first game they held their ground and had amazing scoring outputs from Whitelotus, Seiya, and Jirall.  In the second game they got absolutely trounced.

If you’re going to punt anyone in this game use Jirall or maybe Oddie.  Realize you’re likely to have 2 games not played, but they’re so cheap and the other game is so potentially grindy, that if Lyon can steal a game or maybe 2 they become the must-have punts.  It’s not very likely though at +400.

Fnatic (Europe) vs. HKA (Hong Kong)

Fnatic

Fnatic players are similar in price to Cloud9 guys despite being much smaller favorites.  They’re going to be much lower owned than fan favorite Cloud9 which would make me look to them… but I’m finding them kind of hard to like.  During group stage Fnatic ranked dead last in combined kills/minute.  Their games were passive, tanky, and grindy.  They’re coming off a pretty embarrasing loss to Vietnam’s (2nd seed) Young Generation and in that game they looked terribly bad.

Fnatic is led by their star ADC Rekkles.  He’s a farm god and a much better play than Caps at the same price.  Their top laner Soaz has a really low FP output but with C9’s Impact potentially having a sub, his floor is much higher.  Him and the jungler Broxah have sub-70% kill participation and just low FP-output in general.  They’re both almost outproduced by support Jesiz who is an excellent stack alongside Rekkles.

Hong Kong Attitude

HKA were the third seed out of the LMS region behind premiere Taiwanese teams Flash Wolves and ahq.  They’ve shown flashes of upside this split despite dropping 2 of 3 to 1907 Fenerbache- the surprise 4-1 wildcard team from Turkey.  They did not have a top region superteam in their group unlike the other 3 groups but Fnatic is the perfect draw of those 3.  All of their players have high kill participation as they like to do lots of 5v5 team fights.  This is obviously the team with the most value on the slate, but there is value to using some contrarion Lyon punts and if you don’t wanna tie in GPP you may have to take 1 from each underdog.

HKA’s ADC Unified is a fantasy point machine.  Despite losing 2 of his last 3 games he’s posted single-game scores of 38, 33, and 28 FP which is insane.  He uses high-farm champions and so far has boasted an 86% kill participation..  His support Godkwai is an obvious stacking pair, but before you go locking them into every lineup remember that Fnatic’s bot lane of Rekkles and Jesiz is elite and will likely stomp them most games.  Riris in top lane makes for a great punt as Cloud9 and Fnatic’s top laners are both shaky choices.  Their jungler Godkwai has been excellent but has a sub in Gemini looming.

Team Slot

The overwhelming chalk will be HKA.  Cloud9 and Fnatic are almost unusable at their prices, so most of the time you’ll be punting the team slot.  HKA is a lot safer and pretty much mandatory in cash since they’re less likely to post games not played.  If you’re 4-player stacking an underdog team and have the cash to afford the other top-tier team do it.  They’ll be low owned.