Back to Deleware we go! If memory serves, the DFSArmy CRUSHED at Dover in the spring, so I am excited to be back. A lot of this article will be revisting what we talked about in the srping cuase if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Make sure you check back all week for Taco’s Fast 40 Podcast on Friday, and The Sway Bar article on Saturday. Until then think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. To start the week off, let’s take a look a Dover International.
Track Specifications:
Superspeedway: 1.0-mile oval
Track/Race Length: 1.0 concrete oval, 400 laps, 400 miles
Banking: turns: 24°; straights: 9°
Straights: Front stretch – 1,076 feet; Backstretch – 1,076 feet
Pit Road Speed: 35mph
Pace Car Speed: 45mph
As you can see, Dover is a one mile concrete bullring – think Bristol on steroids. Bigger, faster and just as dangerous. For a one miler, Dover is incredibly fast. This means if you crash, you are probably going to take some damage, this is going to put a premium on drivers with a history of low incidents. Additionally, Dover is a track that traditionally features a lot of comers and goers. Sure, there is a good chance one driver will click off 125+ laps led, but there is also a chance we have a handful of drivers click off 50+ laps aswell.
Before we go back to far into the past, I want to take a brief look at what happened here earlier this year.
Now Jimmie Johnson may have won the race, but Larson and Truex dominated. Larson was fsatest all weekend, but fell victim to the late restart bug. Truex suffered the same fate, but was fast during the race. Expect more of the same this weekend, but less Jimmie and more Martin. Daniel Suarez and Danica Patrick both had runs worth looking at as well.
Now lets look at the spring of 2016.
Some notes to take from this info:
- You’ll notice that the top five all started outside of the top nine, and this isn’t really an outlier.
- Dover has a way of picking drivers from the back and throwing them to the front.
- Look at all the drivers that led significant laps. Kenseth, Larson, Keselowski, Truex Jr., and Harvick all led 40+ laps.
- This race had a huge pile-up crash that took out a lot of good cars.
Now, let’s look at last fall.
Some notes to take from this info:
- Less place differential here, but still some notable plays including Elliott, Dillon, and Gordon.
- Alot less competitive, only Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson led significant laps.
- This race was a real snoozer, and only six cars ended up on the lead lap.
The takeaway from this is that this can be a bit of tumultuous race. However, we can find respite in the consistencies. There WILL be a 100+ lap leader (Truex or Laeson), and there WILL be a lights out place differential play. Now there isn’t much we can do about place differential until qualifying takes place. So until then, lets find some dominators.
The first guy we want to keep out eye on is Jimmie Johnson. Average running position, finishing position, driver rating, laps led and fast laps since 2005 are all topped by JJ. However, he isn’t a safe dominator play in 2017. He will need a poor qualifying effort to be super relevant. Regardless, Johnson is just an animal at Dover and is always worth playing at Dover. What’s more? Bristol is probably the most comparable track to Dover, which Jimmie Johnson won earlier this year too.
So looking at fastest laps, if we ignore that “James Johnson” guy, there are a couple other guys that correlate in terms of fast laps and running position. The first one that sticks out is Matt Kenseth, who has really been turning it on in late 2017. Dover is a great track for him, and he is priced pretty fairly this week, so keep an eye on him.
Kyle Busch is another guy jumping off the page, but doesn’t he always? Average finish of 14th and an average running place 10th is nothing to scoff at, pair that with 5.5% of laps led at Dover – Ky. Busch is going to be a factor this week.
Now – Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. These guys have been dominating this year, and they were the dominators back at Bristol 1 and Dover 1. They don’t carry the best stats at Dover, but those are deceiving. Both drivers have been competitors here (and everywhere), and will continue to do so this weekend.
Lastly, I want to look at Driver Rating to see who is a candidate to be a solid value or low owned play. The bell of the ball from that standpoint will be Clint Bowyer. Bowyer performs lights out at Dover no matter what kind of equipment he is in – and he is in great equipment this weekend. I also like Newman, Kahne, Stenhouse and Menard as guys who can get around here. I’m also going to keep my eyes on Erik Jones, who dominated at Bristol 2, as we work through practice.
So in summary – look at Johnson, Kenseth, Ky. Busch, Larson and Truex Jr. as your lap leaders, and Bowyer, Newman, Kahne, Stenhouse and Menard as some value candidates. I will have so much more to add to this after practice and the xFinity race, so make sure you check back Saturday night for the Sway Bar, and check back tonight for Taco’s Fast 40 where we will talk about every single driver taking the grid this Sunday.
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