Follow me on Twitter: @14AdotWalsh
Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? See How
It is no secret that DFS players have been using the Vegas lines and ITT (Implied Team Totals) to begin their process of selection for quite some time now…and it makes perfect sense. After all, Vegas is eerily on point with the lines and totals they set on games, so it really makes you wonder if these guys have more psychic genes than the rest of us common folks.
As DFS tout companies have sprung up over the last few years, so have the projections and lineup optimizers. These are great, because (if you trust the company) you know that all sorts of advanced analytics are churning away in the background to give you the best possible allocation of your salary cap.
But no one ever thought to take these advanced analytics/projections to their bookies and sportsbooks, until now…
STEELERS -6 over Vikings
I will start it off with my favorite bet of the week, and a lot of this has to do with the Steelers opponent. Teams coming off impressive performances on Monday Night Football have typically come out six days later and looked like a dumpster fire. There are plenty of reasons for this: (1) shorter preparation time and aching bodies, (2) it’s hard to keep that momentum going in such a quick turnaround time, especially when traveling (3) the public’s opinion of them will likely be somewhat overvalued. I think this last point is especially relevant, considering the Vikings looked like an all-world offense against a terrible Saints defensive unit.
With all that being said, there are actual injuries, matchups and numbers to look at; this isn’t a guessing game. Vikings QB Sam Bradford had a phenomenal Week 1 performance against the Saints, throwing for 346 yards, 3 TDs and completing 84.4% of his passes. However, Bradford’s health is a concern once again after he needed an MRI on his knee Tuesday, and he is now a game-time decision. Making matters even more worrisome, is the fact that the Vikings added a third QB to their roster for today’s game.
On the other side of the ball, LB Anthony Barr and CB Xavier Rhodes were listed as questionable during the week and it looks as if they’ll be on the field today. Both guys got in limited practices late in the week, but it’s not a good sign to see them come limping into today.
It’s no secret that the Steelers have been a much better team at Heinz Field, but in case you needed some clarification, there it is above.
Without going into a ton of detail, Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer plays a defensive scheme that will make it incredibly difficult for an opposing team’s main weapon to post massive numbers- in this case, Antonio Brown. Luckily, the Steelers have a full complement of weapons to attack other areas of the Vikings defense, one of them being Martavis Bryant, who could be a very interesting GPP play with 1-on-1 coverage all day.
The DFS Army Domination Station has projected Le’Veon Bell to score the most fantasy points for any player that is not a QB. It was not a great season debut for him in Cleveland, but his potential is through the roof and that’s why he was drafted second overall in most season-long fantasy formats. The cherry on top for Bell today? His prop number to score a touchdown today is at -200, the best of any player (by far) on the Week 2 slate.
The last tidbit to see is how Vegas thinks the scoring for these two teams will pan out. Advantage: Steelers…
Steelers: 2.5 TDs (-150 over)
Vikings: 2 TDs (-125 under), 1.5 FG (-130 under)
Patriots/Saints OVER 57
If you run 10 optimal lineups with three unique players, you’ll see that Tom Brady pops up in all of those calculations. The five-time Super Bowl champ will be taking on a Saints defense that just allowed Sam Bradford to have the game of his life, so I can only imagine what’s going to happen today, especially since the Patriots had 10 days to prepare for this game. The graphic below is more of a nudge towards expecting Brady & Co. to be sharp on the offensive side of the ball today.
On the flip side, Drew Brees is the only QB to have a career rating of at least 100 against the Patriots while Bill Belichick has been the head coach. Vegas likes the Saints offense to put points up tonight, but I do think they shortchanged Brees & Co. by only setting the line at 2.5 TDs with the juice being on the over at -150.
All in all, three players from this game have fantastic TD prop numbers (Mike Gillislee -150, Rob Gronkowski -150 and Michael Thomas -115) and I feel like a lot more could have been added to the list; I should also mention that Coby Fleener is over the DFS Army Domination Station. We have two of the top QBs from our generation and I don’t think anyone will be surprised if we see this game or the Packers/Falcons (56) reach their respective O/U totals.
We have two of the top QBs from our generation and I don’t think anyone will be surprised if we see this game or the Packers/Falcons (56) reach their respective O/U totals, but I do like this one more.
RAVENS -8 over Browns
According to the DFS Army Domination Station, the Ravens have two of the top four $/PT WRs (Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman) on the Week 2 slate. Certainly, that alone is not enough to warrant exposure, but it’s what Vegas has to say about the Browns offense that has me loving the black and purple today…
Browns: 1.5 TDs (-125 under), 1.5 FGs (-190 under)
This will also be the first road game for young DeShone Kizer and the Ravens defense looks like they are starting to get the swagger back that made them so notorious back in the day.
CHARGERS -3.5 over Dolphins
One last game for the people, and it’s actually one that the wiseguys will disagree with me on. Everything looks good on the surface for the Dolphins after Hurricane Irma- they traveled to Los Angeles well in advance of this game and I’ve even heard some people say it’s like they’ve had two training camps. One thing that hasn’t been mentioned is the fact that the Dolphins took their families with them on this trip, and that could be a distraction…as inhumane as it sounds. Also, I was just down in the Miami area last week and I know for a fact that some homes are damaged or have general issues after the hurricane. That has to be on their minds and I just don’t feel like this was your typical “business-like” road trip.
As for the game, let’s not forget this is still the first time in the regular season that Jay Cutler will play with the Dolphins. Sure, he’s had extra time to prepare with his new teammates, but there’s really nothing like in-game action and this Chargers front seven is legit. Vegas prop numbers really aren’t all that favorable for the Dolphins offense either: 2.5 TDs (-140 under), 1.5 FGs (-155 under).
Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen find themselves all over the DFS Army Domination Station and I would certainly have to agree with that. The Dolphins have some talented names on the defensive line, but stopping the run has not been one of their strengths. Allen has a fantastic matchup as well, since the Dolphins ranked 24th in the NFL against slot WRs last season.
Join the DFS Army
Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Sports tools in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and join the Army today! You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team to join!