Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had James Paxton who ended up with 12.40 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.6x value. For our infielder free square, we had Ian Kinsler who ended up with right around 8 DKFP which was right around 2.4x value. For our outfielder free square, we had Kole Calhoun who ended up with 8 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.4x value.
Tonight
We have a huge 11-game slate ahead of us for Wednesday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Luis Severino, Rich Hill, and Tanner Roark. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians, and the Boston Red Sox. Let’s dive into the slate:
Free Squares
- Sean Newcomb SP ATL ($7,800)
- Sean Newcomb and the Atlanta Braves will take on the New York Mets at Citi Field tonight. The Braves are currently -109 favorites and the Mets have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.45 runs. Newcomb has had a pretty good year and he draws a favorable matchup against the depleted Mets team tonight. He has the following advanced stats on the season: .338 wOBA given up to left-handed batters, .339 wOBA given up to lefties, 23.4 K%, 12.3 BB%, .328 BABIP, 28.3 Hard%, 4.72 SIERA, and a 4.56 xFIP. He gets the face the Mets who have been averaging right around 4.55 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against left-handed pitchers on the season: 27th in BB%, 6th in K%, 16th in OPS, 6th in ISO, 19th in wOBA, and 14th in wRC+. This is a depleted Mets lineup and I think Newcomb can exceed value against them tonight. He makes an excellent SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Eric Thames 1B/OF MIL ($4,000)
- Eric Thames and the Milwaukee Brewers will take on the Cincinnati Reds and pitcher Homer Bailey tonight at Miller Park. The Brewers have an implied run total 5.29 runs. Thames has had quite the year and we always love the power potential he brings to the plate. He has the following numbers against right-handed pitchers: 14.4 BB%, 27.8 K%, .929 OPS, .292 ISO, .319 BABIP, .387 wOBA, and a 136 wRC+. He gets to face Homer Bailey tonight who has the following numbers vs. left-handed batters: .87 HR/9, 14.6 K%, 12.5 BB%, .313 BABIP, 5.59 xFIP, and a 31.9 Hard%. Great matchup tonight for Thames and I love his positional flexibility tonight. Lock him in as a one-off in either the infield or outfield and I love a Brewers stack tonight.
- Kyle Schwarber OF CHC ($4,400)
- Kyle Schwarber and the Chicago Cubs will take on the St. Louis Cardinals and pitcher Michael Wacha tonight at Busch Stadium. The Cubs have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.50 runs. Schwarber had a difficult start to the season but he has turned it around as the Season has gone on. He has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers on the season: 11.2 BB%, 29.9 K%, .809 OPS, .277 ISO, .237 BABIP, .341 wOBA, 108 wRC+, and a 38.0 Hard%. He gets to face Michael Wacha who has the following numbers vs. left-handed batters on the season: .88 HR/9, 20.1 K%, 10.9 BB%, .289 BABIP, 4.52 xFIP, and a 29.8 Hard%. I love lefties on the Cubs tonight and Schwarber may be on the top of that list. He is a bit pricey but I love his matchup and upside tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Good sized slate tonight and one that I think is perfect for tournaments. Hopefully, I narrowed down some guys to help start your research. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Mariners pitcher James Paxton tonight! Good luck Army!
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