Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Aaron Nola who ended up with 23.90 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.9x value! For our infielder free square, we had Robinson Cano who ended up with right around 2 DKFP which was right around 0.7x value. For our outfielder free square, we had Justin Upton who ended up with 8 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.9x value.
Tonight
We have a huge 15-game slate ahead of us for Tuesday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Chirs Sale. Robbie Ray, Gio Gonzalez. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals, and the Milwaukee Brewers. Let’s dive into the slate:
Free Squares
- James Paxton SP SEA ($7,600)
- James Paxton and the Seattle Mariners will take on the Oakland Athletics tonight at the O.co Coliseum. The Mariners are currently -125 favorites and the Athletics have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.07 runs. Paxton has had a pretty good season so far this year and I like his price and matchup against the Athletics tonight. He has the following advanced stats on the season: .209 wOBA against lefties on the season, .277 wOBA given up to righties this season, 27.9 K%, 7.3 BB%, .303 BABIP, 29.7 Hard%, 3.53 SIERA, and a 3.28 xFIP. He will take on the Athletics tonight who have been averaging right around 4.60 runs per game this season. They have the following stats against left-handed pitchers this season: 7th in BB%, 5th in K%, 26th in OPS, 22nd is ISO, 26th in wOBA, and a 24th in wRC+. We have a pitcher who has really good numbers vs. lefties and a team who has struggled against left-handed pitching all season. The price is right and I am not going to overthink this one tonight. Lock in Paxton as an SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Ian Kinsler 2B DET ($3,300)
- Ian Kinsler and the Detroit Tigers will take on the Kansas City Royals and pitcher Jason Vargas at Kaufman Field tonight. The Tigers have an implied total sitting at right around 4.35 runs tonight. Although the Tigers have had a disappointing season Kinsler has fared pretty well this year. He has the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers on the season: 10.4 BB%, 11.2 K%, .893 OPS, .270 ISO, .264 BABIP, .372 wOBA, 132 wRC+, and a 35.1 Hard%. He gets to face Jason Vargas tonight who has the following numbers against right-handed batters this season: 1.36 HR/9, 18.9 K%, 7.6 BB%, .281 BABIP, 4.78 xFIP, and a 33.1 Hard%. I think Kinsler has a solid price with some decent upside tonight. I love him as a one-off and I actually do not mind a mini Tigers stack tonight.
- Kole Calhoun OF LAA ($3,400)
- Kole Calhoun and the Los Angeles Angels will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Chris Volstad tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Angels have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.32 runs. Calhoun has had a pretty solid year against right-handed pitching this season and he draws a plus matchup against Volstad tonight. He has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching on the season: 10.9 BB%, 21.3 K%, .738 OPS, .144 ISO, .303 BABIP, .319 wOBA, 100 wRC+, and a 33.0 Hard%. He will face Chris Volstad tonight who has the following numbers vs. left-handed batters on in his career: 1.47 HR/9, 13.4 K%, 8.5 BB%, 4.39 xFIP, and a 29.1 Hard%. Angels have one of the highest implied totals of the night and Calhoun has a lot of upside tonight. I love him as a one-off tonight and load him up in your Angels stack tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Huge slate tonight and one that I think is perfect for tournaments. Hopefully, I narrowed down some guys to help start your research. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Mariners pitcher James Paxton tonight! Good luck Army!
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