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Alvarez Free Squares – MLB DFS Value Plays For the Tuesday 9/19 Main Slate on DraftKings

Searching For the Free Square 

In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.

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Tonight

We have a huge 15-game slate ahead of us for Tuesday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish, and Zack Godley. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied run totals are as follows: the Oakland Athletics, Houston Astros, and the Seattle Mariners. Let’s dive into the slate:

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Free Squares

  • Chirs Archer SP TBR ($7,900)
    • Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Chicago Cubs at home at Tropicana Field tonight. The Rays are currently -122 favorites and the Cubs have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.96 runs. Archer has had a pretty decent year and has a really low price tonight against the Cubs. He has the following advanced stats on the season: .342 wOBA given up to lefties, .283 wOBA given up to righties, 29.8 K%, 7.1 BB%, .328 BABIP, 39.3 HArd%, 3.40 SIERA, and a 3.31 xFIP. He faces the Cubs tonight who have been averaging right around 5.11 runs per game this season. They have the following numbers against right-handed pitching this season: 4th in BB%, 11th in K%, 8th in OPS, 7th in ISO, 8th in wOBA, and 10th in wRC+. This is a good pitcher going up against a pretty solid hitting team tonight. I am going to go with the pitcher in this matchup though as I think he is underpriced and has some decent upside tonight. I love him as an SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
  • Mike Zunino C SEA ($3,500)
    • Mike Zunino and the Seattle Mariners will take on the Texas Rangers and pitcher Martin Perez tonight at SafeCo Field. The Mariners have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.16 runs. Zunino is one of the better hitting catchers in the league and he draws a great matchup against Martin Perez tonight at home.He has the following numbers against left-handed pitchers on the season: 9.8 BB%, 34.8 K%, .325 ISO, .349 BABIP, .394 wOBA, 152 wRC+, and a 39.2 Hard%. He gets to face Martin Perez tonight who has had the following numbers vs. right-handed bats this season: 1.28 HR/9, 12.5 K%, 8.1 BB%, .335 BABIP, 5.07 xFIP, and a 34.7 Hard%. Zunino is affordable tonight has a great matchup and one of the highest implied totals on the board. For me, this is a no-brainer play to play Zunino as a one-off or as part of a Mariners stack tonight.
  • Christian Yelich MIA OF ($4,400)
    • Christian Yelich and the Miami Marlins will take on the New York Mets and pitcher Seth Lugo tonight at Marlins Park. The Marlins have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.11 runs. Yelich has had a solid season so far and he is in a great spot tonight against Seth Lugo. He has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching on the season: 12.4 BB%, 19.9 K%, .840 OPS, .343 BABIP, .169 ISO, .359 wOBA, 123 wRC+, and a 37.5 Hard%. He gets to face Seth Lugo tonight who has the following numbers vs. left-handed batters against this season: .80 HR/9, 16.3 K%, 7.4 BB%, 4.79 xFIP, and a 36.1 Hard%. This is a good spot for Yelich tonight and I like his upside tonight as well. You can play him as a one-off and you can definitely roll out a Marlins stack with him included in it tonight.

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Huge slate tonight with tons of action across both sites. The MLB season is winding down so let’s take full advantage of each slate. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today!  With my free square pick, I am going to go with Rays pitchers Chris Archer tonight! Good luck Army!

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