Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square last night we had Brad Peacock who managed to net 23.70 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.4x value. For our infielder free square, we had Yasmani Grandal who did not make the starting lineup. Last but not least was our outfielder free square Josh Reddick who had a great performance by managing to net us 15 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.6x value!
Tonight
We have a solid 9-game slate ahead of us for Thursday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Carlos Martinez, Dallas Keuchel, and Tanner Roark. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied run totals are as follows: the Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, and the St. Louis Cardinals. Let’s dive into the slate:
Free Squares
- Tanner Roark SP WSH ($9,200)
- Tanner Roark and the Washington Nationals will take on the Atlanta Braves away at SunTrust Park tonight. The Nationals are currently -138 favorites and the Braves have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.18 runs. Roark has had a pretty solid season so far and he draws a great matchup against the Braves tonight. He has the following advanced stats on the season: .354 wOBA given up to lefties, .260 wOBA given up to righties, 21.5 K%, 8.1 BB%, .291 BABIP, 26.9 Hard%, 4.31 SIERA, and a 4.18 xFIP. He will take on the Atlanta Braves tonight who have been averaging right around 4.59 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right-handed pitching on the season: 27th in BB%, 28th in K%, 25th in OPS, 28th in ISO, 25th in wOBA, and 26th in wRC+. I do not like a lot of the pitching options tonight but I think Roark has a solid matchup and decent price tonight. You can load him up as either an SP1 or SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- James McCann C DET ($3,300)
- James McCann and the Detroit Tigers will take on the Minnesota Twins and pitcher Adalberto Meija tonight at Comerica Park. The Tigers have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.70 runs. McCann has had a pretty decent year on a bad Tigers team and has a solid price and matchup tonight at home. He has the following numbers vs. left-handed pitching on the season: 8.5 BB%, 15.1 K%, .987 OPS, .284 ISO, .319 BABIP, .413 wOBA, 160 wRC+, and a 41.8 Hard%. He gets to face Adalberto Meija who has the following numbers against right-handed batters: 18.0 K%, 10.8 BB%, .323 BABIP, 5.36 xFIP, and a 33.6 Hard%. McCann has really solid numbers vs. lefties this season and Meija has had his troubles. I love him as a one-off as a catcher and I don’t mind a Tigers stack as well tonight.
- Max Kepler OF MIN ($3,400)
- Max Kepler and the Minnesota Twins will take on the Detroit Tigers and pitcher Jordan Zimmermann tonight at Comerica Park. Kepler and the Twins have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.30 runs. Kepler has made the free squares many times this season and we always love his power upside. He has the following numbers against right-handed pitching on the season: 9.4 BB%, 16.4 K%, .832 ISO, .216 ISO, .292 BABIP, .352 wOBA, 117 wRC+, and a 36.1 Hard%. He gets to face Jordan Zimmermann who has the following numbers vs. left-handed batters on the season: 1.82 HR/9, 15.6 K%, .347 BABIP, 5.32 xFIP, 42.3 Hard%. The Twins have one of the highest implied totals on the board tonight and we always love loading up Kepler vs. righties. The extra good news for Kepler is that he faces a pitcher in Zimmermann who has struggled vs. lefties all season. Play him as a one-off in the outfield or lock in him a Twins stack tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Decent sized slate tonight and one that I think is perfect for tournaments. Hopefully, I narrowed down some guys to help start your research. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Twins outfielder Max Kepler tonight! Good luck Army!
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