Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Tonight
I hope everyone had a good weekend as we start of the week with a solid 9-game slate. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Yu Darvish, Zack Godley, and Luke Weaver. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Angels, and the Houston Astros. Let’s dive into the slate:
Free Squares
- Aaron Nola SP PHI ($8,000)
- Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Washington Nationals tonight at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are currently -140 favorites and the Nationals have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.91 runs. Nola has had a pretty solid year so far and I love his price and matchup tonight. He has the following advanced stats on the season: .319 wOBA given up to lefties, .270 wOBA given up to righties, 26.2 K%, 7.0 BB%, .309 BABIP, 30.0 Hard%, 3.64 SIERA, and 3.42 xFIP. He gets to face the Nationals who have been averaging right around 5.11 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right-handed pitchers: 11th in BB%, 20th in K%, 5th in OPS, 9th in ISO, 6th in wOBA, and 12th in wRC+. Strong numbers indeed from the Nationals but I would take it with a grain of salt as we will see who they roll out in their lineup. Nola is cheap and has a ton of upside potential tonight which makes me love him as an SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Robinson Cano 2B SEA ($3,000)
- I have no idea what went on with the Draftkings pricing with regards to all the Mariners today. In saying that Robinson Cano and the Seattle Mariners will take on the Oakland Athletics and pitcher Daniel Gossett at the O.co Coliseum tonight. The Mariners have an implied total sitting at right around 4.75 runs. Cano has had a pretty solid season so far and I don’t know how you can fade him at $3,000 tonight. He has the following advanced stats on the season versus righties: 8.5 BB%, 11.3 K%, .904 OPS, .210 ISO, .325 BABIP, .378 wOBA, 141 wRC+, and a 39.8 Hard%. He gets to face Daniel Gossett tonight who has the following numbers vs. lefties on the season: 1.04 HR/9, 13.9 K%, 9.1 BB%, .342 BABIP, 4.98 xFIP, and a 34.6 Hard%. I suppose you can make a case against fading some of these Mariners in GPPs but I think there is simply too much upside at a low price for Cano tonight. Load him up as a one-off at second base and include him in all of your Mariners stacks.
- Justin Upton OF LAA ($4,300)
- Justin Upton and the Los Angeles Angels will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher James Shields at Guaranteed Rate Field tonight. The Angels have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.53 runs tonight. Upton has had a pretty solid year and draws a nice matchup against the hitter-friendly James Shields. He has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitchers this season: 11.8 BB%, 29.9 K%, .849 OPS, .242 ISO, .336 BABIP, .358 wOBA, and a 123 wRC+. He gets to face James Shields tonight who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters: 1.41 HR/9, 21.9 K%, 8.8 BB%, .263 BABIP, 4.65 xFIP, and a 33.3 Hard%. I love Upton and his crazy power numbers. He always has a ton of upside potential and I expect him to have a big game tonight. Include him in a stack or play him as a one off as either plays are good options on Draftkings tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Decent sized slate tonight and one that I think is perfect for tournaments. Hopefully, I narrowed down some guys to help start your research. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Mariners infielder Robinson Cano tonight! Good luck Army!
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