Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Josh Tomlin who ended up with 12.55 DKFP which was right around 1.4x value. For our infielder free square, we had Matt Holliday who ended up with 5 DKFP which was good enough for 1.4x value. For our outfielder free square, we had Shin-Soo Choo who ended up with 8 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.6x value.
Tonight
We have a huge 14-game slate ahead of us for Friday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Chris Sale, Luis Severino, Robbie Ray. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied run totals are as follows: the Colorado Rockies, New York Yankees, and the San Diego Padres. Let’s dive into the slate:
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Free Squares
- Sean Newcomb SP ATL ($6,700)
- Sean Newcomb and the Atlanta Braves will take on the New York Mets at home at SunTrust Park tonight. The Braves are currently -134 favorites and the Mets have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.36 runs. Newcomb has been having a pretty solid season so far and gets a great matchup against a bad Mets team. He has the following advanced stats on the season: .352 wOBA against lefties, .342 wOBA given up to righties, 22.7 K%, 12.9 BB%, .325 BABIP, 29.1 Hard%, 4.89 SIERA, and a 4.76 xFIP. He will face the New York Mets who have been averaging right around 4.63 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against left-handed pitchers this season: 27th in BB%, 7th in K%, 14th in OPS, 5th in ISO, 17th in wOBA, and 14th in wRC+. I wouldn’t take too much stock into the Mets season-long numbers as their lineup is a skeleton of what they had before. Even saying that they have a K% number and I don’t forsee Newcomb having any problems tonight with them. He makes a great affordable SP2 tonight on Draftkings.
- Yasmani Grandal C LAD ($3,300)
- Yasmani Grandal and the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Washington Nationals and pitcher Edwin Jackson tonight at Nationals Park. The Nationals have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.21 runs. Grandal is one of the best offensive catchers in the game and he has a ton of upside tonight. He has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching: 7.1 BB%, 27.5 K%, .772 OPS, .222 ISO, .300 BABIP, .325 BABIP, 102 wRC+. He will go up against Edwin Jackson tonight who has the following numbers vs. left-handed batters: 1.45 HR/9, 18.7 K%, 7.5 BB%, .287 BABIP, 4.82 xFIP, and a 31.3 Hard%. Grandal has a great matchup at a great price tonight. I love him as both a one-off and part of a Dodgers stack on the road tonight.
- Ian Desmond COL 1B/OF ($3,600)
- Ian Desmond and the Colorado Rockies will take on the San Diego Padres and pitcher Clayton Richard. The Rockies have an implied run total sitting at 6.66 runs. Desmond has had an okay year but he has been a bit cold lately. I think this matchup tonight is the night he turns it around. He has the following numbers against left-handed batters on the season: 23.8 K%, .642 OPS, .096 ISO, .315 BABIP, .276 wOBA, 50 wRC+, 23.6 Hard%. He will face Clayton Richard tonight who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters: 1.47 HR/9, 14.3 K%, 7.9 BB%, 4.28 xFIP, and a 36.7 Hard%. I know Desmond doesn’t have the most exciting numbers but this is more of a matchup and implied run total play for me tonight. Desmond is cheap has multi-position eligibility and has a ton of upside in the highest-scoring game of the night. I’ll take my chances with him as a one-off and of course a Rockies stack.
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Huge slate tonight with tons of action across both sites. The MLB season is winding down so let’s take full advantage of each slate. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Braves pitchers Sean Newcomb tonight! Good luck Army!
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