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Research Notes – Fanduel Advice for the Main Slate on Tuesday, August 15th

**Before we get started I just want to show you exactly what we have upcoming for the NFL season. Football is upon us and whether it’s season long fantasy football or DFS, the staff here at DFS Army has you covered. If this link doesn’t make you so excited that you want to run through a brick wall then I don’t know what will. Here is what is in store for the 2017 NFL season: https://wp.dfsarmy.com/2017/08/whats-store-2017-daily-fantasy-football-season.html/ref/22

 

This article is going to mesh what my normal notebook of research would look like with the presentation in a more articulate demonstration. Trust me, you don’t want to lay your eyes on my notebook. It resembles my toddler’s “drawings” of me and her mother. This “research notebook” will also give you a look into my personal process as a full-time guaranteed prize pool (GPP) competitor. Try not to get lost in the minutia of the numbers and enjoy the deep data dive. By the end, you will have a nice insider peek at my player pool for the main slate.

NYM@NYY

  • Sonny Gray has held opposing hitters to a 27% hard hit rate and 171-foot average batted ball distance over his last three starts. He has eight straight games over 34 Fanduel points. Has allowed just a .197 wOBA and .050 ISO to left-handed hitters over the past month. Fade the Mets, including the high ownership that Granderson will carry.
  • I am following suit with the Yankees offense and fading every hitter. Jacob deGrom is cash viable as the Yankees offense is sputtering.

LAA@WAS

  • This is another stay away game for me. Fading both offenses and all hitters. Both Tyler Skaggs and Gio Gonzalez are in play for GPP’s.

TBR@TOR

  • Fade the entire Rays offense as Estrada rarely gets shelled even though he labors through most of his starts.
  • Against lefties over the last month, Donaldson is 3-for-21, Bautista is 6-for-26, and Pearce is 4-for-25. Smoak is 8-for-22 with a .640 wOBA and .500 ISO and Morales is 10-for-22 with a .512 wOBA and .238 ISO. Morales is the better play here as his salary has really dropped over the past month.

SFG@MIA

  • Fade the Giants because they are just lame and have a .286 wOBA and .123 ISO with a 22.4% strikeout rate over the past month against righties. Dan Straily is in play for large field GPP’s.
  • For the rest of eternity, if Stanton is in the lineup just lock him in. He’s a one-off as I am not liking the offense around him. If you want Marlins exposure roll out Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich with Stanton as they profile better than the rest of the offense does against Madison Bumgarner.

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STL@BOS

  • Porcello has given up a home run in five straight games with multiple home runs in three of them. He’s also struggling against left-handed hitters over the last month. Carpenter, Fowler, and Wong are the three lefties to target. I am not against using Paul DeJong at short stop or Randal Grichuk in a stack.
  • The Boston hitters that I want to target are seemingly priced out. I want to fade this offense because there are more optimal plays for cheaper prices elsewhere. That being said, Benintendi and Devers are in good spots with strong splits and make a strong mini-stack.

PIT@MIL

  • Fade the Pirates offense.
  • Ian Nova has allowed a 42% hard hit rate over the past two weeks and given up at least one home run in seven straight starts. He’s struggling against both sides of the plate but has held right-handed batters to a 14.5% ground ball rate. Pick on him with the left-handed bats that he has allowed a .505 wOBA and .359 ISO to over the past month. Thames, Shaw, and Neil Walker are the targets.

CIN@CHC

  • Fading both offenses in this game. Castillo and Hendrick are excellent large field GPP pitcher selections.

DET@TEX

  • I am going back to the well with the Tigers right-handed hitters as they’re in a good spot against A.J. Griffin, who has reverse splits over the past two years. I specifically want to target Upton, Castellanos, and either McCann or Hicks depending on where they are batting.
  • I love Justin Verlander as a large field GPP play. He has pounded the strike zone with a 70% strike ratio over his last three starts. The Rangers have a 22.7% strikeout rate for their projected starting lineup and Verlander is in a groove.

CLE@MIN

  • The Indians are in a very nice spot against Bartolo Colon. I am attacking him with lefties, as he only has an 8.1% strikeout rate against them over his last three starts. I want to start with Jose Ramirez and Jay Bruce and sprinkle in Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana for large field GPP’s.
  • I am fading the Twins offense. Salazar has struck out 49% of right-handed batters he’s faced in his last 51 at-bats against. That takes Sano and Dozier out of play. If they aren’t keeping rally’s going I don’t like the upside from the rest of the team.

ATL@COL

  • I am off the Braves offense as I don’t like using their bats against left-handed pitchers.
  • It’s a good night to go back to the well with the Rockies. Sean Newcomb has done a very good job keeping the ball in the park thus far but is really struggling with walks as of late. I am looking at the hitters with lower strikeout rates against lefties in this one. LeMahieu, Arenado, Parra, and Blackmon is an expensive stack but if paired with Castillo it fits nicely.

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KCR@OAK

  • Chris Smith has given up nine HR’s in just 34 innings and I really like the Royals here. Start any stack with Hosmer and Moustakas and sprinkle in Merrifield and Moss for large field GPP’s.
  • Hammel has been pitching really well and I am fading the Athletics because there are plenty of other more optimal plays today across the slate.

BAL@SEA

  • Opposing right-handed pitcher, Andrew Albers has given up 11 earned runs and 4 home runs just less than 9 innings pitched on the season. Stack up Orioles 1-5 hitters on DK and any four that you want on Fanduel. Their pricing is too low for their potential upside in this spot.
  • I am interested in Jean Segura and Nelson Cruz as a mini-stack as Wade Miley has struggled against righties this season.

CHW@LAD

  • The White Sox offense is a complete fade and Alex Wood is a mortal lock for a quality start and win.
  • The Dodgers have the potential to be the highest scoring offense of the night. Chris Taylor, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, and whatever catcher starts for the Dodgers is in play. I would mainly focus on the players that will bat on the left side of the plate as their splits are strong against Gonzalez.

PHI@SDP

  • This game is a complete stay away on the offensive side. Rhys Hoskins will likely carry higher ownership than is warranted and Dinelson Lamet has done a great job keeping the ball in the park. He is a fantastic large field GPP pitcher selection.

You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I post my daily articles. Best of luck tonight in your contests!

 

 

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