In this space, I usually hammer out research and analysis in the form of a column called, “Weekend Warriors”. With the Fanduel World Fantasy Baseball Championship taking place in Chicago Sunday I wanted to show you a common type of research done when trying to find an angle. When you have 100 of the top DFS players in the world vying for the top heavy payout prize of first place, you can’t approach the slate the same way that you normally would. An edge won’t always present itself and in this case, I am going to attempt to create one.
This article will be more representative of what my normal notebook of research would look like rather than something I would normally publish for the average reader. This “research notebook” will also give you a look into my personal process as a full time guaranteed prize pool (GPP) competitor. Try not to get lost in the minutia of the numbers and enjoy some the deep data dive.
- Corey Kluber
- Road Splits this season
- 11.2 K/9
- 31.5% K rate
- .223 AVG / .282 wOBA / 1.5 HR/9
- 3.66 ERA / 2.79 xFIP / 1.01 WHIP
- 35.9% HH / 15.4% Soft
- 44.8% GB / 35.3% FB
- Last Month Splits Righties / Lefties
- PA 74 / 71
- K% 41.9 / 40.8
- GB% 42.5 / 37.5
- FB% 27.5 / 37.5
- wOBA .290 / .171
- ISO .254 / .074
- SIERA .076 / .91
- xFIP 1.41 / 1.50
- Tampa Home vs Right-Handed Pitchers since the All-Star Break
- 369 AB
- .264 wOBA (worst)
- 66 wRC+ (worst)
- .110 ISO (worst)
- .259 BABIP (2nd worst)
- 29% K rate (worst)
- 30.3% HH (tied 8th worst)
- 21.7% Soft (tied 4th worst)
- Same splits using month of August
- 200 AB
- .242 wOBA (4th worst)
- 51 wRC+ (4th worst)
- .077 ISO (2nd worst)
- .256 BABIP (6th worst)
- 28.5% K rate (4th worst)
- 28.0% HH (7th worst)
- 20.0% Soft (13th worst)
- Road Splits this season
- Max Scherzer
- Home Splits this season
- 12.4 K/9
- 35.1% K rate
- .187 AVG / .252 wOBA / 1.1 HR/9
- 2.79 ERA / 2.77 xFIP / 0.89 WHIP
- 24.2% HH / 20.3% Soft
- 39.7% GB / 47.0% FB
- Last Month Splits Righties / Lefties
- PA 47 / 48
- K% 36.2 / 35.2
- GB% 34.6 / 26.9
- FB% 42.3 / 34.6
- wOBA .202 / .391
- ISO .093 / .326
- SIERA 1.93 / 2.00
- xFIP 2.58 / 2.60
- Giants Road Splits vs Right-Handed Pitchers since the All-Star Break
- 150 AB
- .307 wOBA (15th)
- 87 wRC+ (14th)
- .169 ISO (13th)
- .298 BABIP (15th)
- 21.9% K rate (14th)
- 20.4% HH (worst)
- 21.3% Soft (4th worst)
- Same splits using month of August
- not usable, only 25 AB sample size
- Home Splits this season
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After breaking down the top two pitchers and figure out which one I want the next thing I want to do is find some value hitters that will help make using one of these studs fit. All of these hitters will be priced $3,000 or less.
Nationals vs Chris Stratton (R) – Splits vs Righties over the past month.
Goodwin .338 wOBA, .300 ISO, 35.5% FB
Lind .330 wOBA, .212 ISO, 25.0% FB
Rockies vs Vance Worley (R) – Splits vs Righties over the past month.
Parra .409 wOBA, .246 ISO, 19.3% FB
Mets vs Zach Efflin (R) – Splits vs Righties over the past month.
Granderson .341 wOBA, .211 ISO, 37.9% FB
Dominic Smith (L) 1B – $2,000 likely batting 6th and a highly touted prospect
Phillies vs Chris Flexen (R) – Splits vs Righties over the past month.
Rhys Hoskins (R) 1b – $2,100 likely batting 4th and a highly touted prospect
Nick Williams .356 wOBA, .219 ISO, 13.5% FB
Franco .320 wOBA, .184 ISO, 34.3% FB
Rupp .494 wOBA, .486 ISO, 28.0% FB (12-for-38)
Brewers vs Sal Romano (R) – Splits vs Righties over the past month.
Thames .335 wOBA, .176 ISO, 31.8% FB
Santana .333 wOBA, .164 ISO, 17.0% FB
Pina, .307 wOBA, .129 ISO, 36.2% FB
White Sox vs Jason Vargas (L) – Splits vs Lefties over the past month
Abreu .347 wOBA, .167 ISO, 19.0% FB
Anderson .358 wOBA, .214 ISO, 13.0% FB
The entire Braves offense except for Freddie Freeman is 2.9k or cheaper. They face the right-handed pitcher, Michael Wacha on the road in St. Louis.
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If it wasn’t obvious, I broke down the matchup that the top two pitchers on the slate had and then looked for value hitters under the aforementioned $3,000 salary marker. This is a very common approach I take when having to decide between two pitchers that are clearly above the rest of the competition. On a slate where the third best pitcher can possibly get 40’sh Fanduel points on his best day it’s difficult to fade the top ace. This slate has the added element with two of the top choices in all of baseball on the same slate and no clear third option. My decision isn’t made as to what route I ultimately will take but you are now on the same page that I am.
My decision isn’t made as to what route I ultimately will take but you are now on the same page that I am. I hope you enjoyed taking a peek behind the curtain to my approach. A deep data dive like this one can be cumbersome and tedious, but if you want to be the best sometimes you have to go out of your way to create your own edge.
Best of luck to the contestants in the Fanduel World Fantasy Baseball Championships. You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I post my daily articles.