When it comes to MLB DFS, there is no shortage of content at dfsarmy.com. In fact, there might be so much it’s a bit overwhelming for the newer player. Well, grab my coat tails because we are going to start fixing that today! Chin Music will be short and sweet. I’m @ChoppoDong on Twitter, too, and love DFS-related conversations in any format. Give me a follow!
At the end of this article is a link to a video series our VIPs will be getting free with membership. A video classroom series designed to walk newer players and intermediates through the fundamentals of the major DFS sports we cover. Feel free to click and watch along.
Well, the 7day trial periods are over. I’m sorry you missed out. However, there are offers below for more free trials. And, there is even a discount at the very bottom for those of you that just know you want to be part of something special!!
Quick Glance
A quick refresh on the columns. Wx is your weather forecast for the day on a safety scale of 1-10, with 0 being played in a dome. Vegas P helps determine the odds your pitcher will get the win. Green is good. Vegas B is the run total of the game for hitters. Again, green is good.
For an even better look at the weather, give @dfsmlbweather a follow! He has quickly become a friend and our in-house meteorologist when it comes to DFS MLB advice. I have personally seen him say not to worry about three games this year where others around the industry were calling the game too risky. When it comes to baseball, you don’t want a weather guy that lives in fear of making mistakes (like most of my local tv guys). Also, find his page on the site at DFS MLB Weather.
MLB Pitchers for Winning DFS Lineups
The first thing we look for is a solid pitcher with upside. I use Vegas odds and KScore to point me in the right direction. I tie-break with the price. If there are two similar pitchers in Vegas and KScore, I will opt for the cheaper one. The win is important, but not like it used to be before Fanduel broke up those points into quality starts and the win. Now, on all sites, strikeouts reign supreme in DFS MLB!
Danny Salazar (CLE) – Once again, we are splitting hairs here in my opinion. I could go back and forth between Salazar and Wood today and still now know which to choose. I would take Salazar, though, for the upside. Three of his last four starts eclipsed the 45 point mark on Fanduel. At $9500, that’s pretty much what we are looking for. The risk is from 2016, where he was roughed up in all three starts vs the Twins. This year, however, he posted a 46 in his only start vs MIN.
Alex Wood (LAD) – If Salazar is the upside for you, Wood is the safety. That -345 out of Vegas is telling. Picking on the White Sox has also been successful in DFS MLB as of late. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!! We likely run in the mid 30s with Wood today, but outside of his start on July 21st, you need to go all the way back to April 21st before finding another sub 30 start. That’s pretty damned safe. If you’re lucky, he’ll test his 50 point upside for you, but it looks unlikely tonight.
Marco Estrada (TOR) – Little Marco has caught fire his last few times out. While he was a pile of DFS shit for over a month as recently as late July, August has seen a turn around. His last 3 starts look like: 37, 37, and 49. At $7600, there is more upside here than even Salazar. But, there is a ton more risk. It really depends on what you want to do with your bats, and if 3 starts is a large enough sample for you to remove Estrada from the shit pile.
Others I’d mention are Denilson Lamet in SD, Jacob deGrom in NY, and Mark Leiter jr, out in SD. Feel free to look these guys up, but I’m going to tell you they aren’t quite as strong as the three listed. Therefore, I’m not going to bother digging any deeper. I’m not into wasting your time. We all know what deGrom is capable of, but I think you see the risk involved with taking on the Yankees in their park this year. At $10000+, I’ll pass…….but he can most certainly win you a GPP. And, today with some cheaper pitching, he affords you a completely different lineup build AND the always popular “Coors Fade.” It’s worth thinking about.
(For more on layering contests for upside, see my Ladder System piece.)
If You Think Our Content Is Good On The Outside…
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Every one of these links include the latest and best promotional offers from the sites listed. Most have a deposit match rake back offer and some number of free entries to various contests for new depositors. I’m not detailing them above because they change on occasion. Just know they are juiced up with the best current promotions. We also give all of our new members links to download two Daily Fantasy Football full length strategy books which you will have access to as well.
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DFS Army VIP Membership – Limited time offer
We are rolling out a pre-season special for the month of August. My first suggestion is to take advantage of one or more of the free month offers above. I’d rather you put some cash in your bankroll rather then giving it to us up front. If you already have existing DFS accounts or just don’t want to add any new ones – simply go to DFS Army VIP Membership Registration – and use promo code: PRESEASON to get 20% off your monthly membership. Remember that our VIP memberships include coverage for all sports and your 20% discount locks in for as long as you remain a member.
Register For DFS Army VIP Membership! Easiest way to jump in is this link…. DFSARMY VIP!
Soft Pitching to Attack
Next, we start looking at bats. We start the process by finding the softer pitching. Perhaps the best, and fastest, way to accomplish this is to look at the last couple years MLB SIERA numbers. If you don’t know what SIERA is, ask in our VIP Slack Chat rooms. Someone will answer it quickly for you. I look for those running over 5.00 and then over 4.50. I write them down on paper so I can see them in one list. NOTE: Opponents will now be in parentheses.
Over 5.00 SIERA — Smith (KCR), Gonzalez (@LAD), Snell (@TOR), Griffin (DET), Colon (CLE), Miley (@SEA)
Try to pick on these guys as much as possible, especially when they have to face top offenses.
Implied Run Totals for DFS MLB Bats
Your next step is to look to Vegas to guide you in your quest for the best bats. Implied run totals are not a great indicator of an actual score. They are, however, a nice indicator of bad pitching, ballpark factors, and general good spots for our hitters. I list them in order as I find them, cross-check with where the pitcher shows weakness (handedness of bats), and then give you the best players (in CAPS) followed by the still playable players (lowercase). If not on this list, you rarely find them in my MLB lineups. Teams facing soft pitching will be in bold. Good BvP matchups will be in italics.
COL left – VALIAKA, BLACKMON, REYNOLDS, lemahieu, parra
LAD both – TAYLOR, puig, bellinger, seager, turner, forsythe
BOS left – YOUNG, DEVERS, NUNEZ, vazquez, benintendi, betts, bradley, moreland
CLE both – ENCARNACION, santana, jackson, bruce, ramirez, kipnis
MIL both – BRAUN, shaw, walker, thames, sogard, villar, santana
Honorable Mentions – ATL right, DET left, KCR both, STL
HINT – If you see a guy in caps AND italics, he is swinging a hot bat and has a good history vs that pitcher. He deserves strong consideration today.
For more players and a little breakdown of which I’m building around, you just need to become a VIP. Yes, membership has its privileges. Click here to become a member –> ChoppoDong sent me!
#DongCall!!
Back is the #DongCall, but guys this is supposed to be interactive. We discuss it enough in Slack inside the Army VIP program, but you guys out here on Twitter are who I was hoping to have the most fun with. If you tweet me your dong calls, or guesses at mine, I will retweet them and reply. Twitter is an interactive space where we all grow our reach through interaction. If you want some help, I’m willing to give it where I can. I see #DongCalls as a perfect opportunity to get everyone talking about who they like for the day. Let’s do it!
Today you get a hint – He’s an Indian now, but not in this picture…
Yesterday’s #DongCall was Chuck Nasty….a triple is almost a home run…..
Final Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Don’t forget to try one of our site affiliations for your 30day free VIP pass. If you know you aren’t going anywhere, use code CHOP to trigger a 20% discount every month as long as you remain a member regardless of any future price increases. You are grandfathered in at your rate permanently!! And, if you wanted the link to the classroom video series, you can find it by clicking VIDEO CLASSROOM. New vids are scheduled to drop frequently.