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Forslund’s Full Mount – UFC Fight Night Rotterdam Breakdown

Welcome to another edition of the Full Mount.  This card has taken some hits since it first was announced but, there is still money to make.  Hopefully, after reading this article you can get pointed in the right direction to make a profit.  I will be in Slack leading up to the card so, feel free to ask me any questions there.  Ok, lets get down to breaking these fights down from a DraftKings angle.

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Reneau (-325) 9.1k vs Bernardo (+250) 7.1k

I don’t want to waste too much time breaking this fight down.  Bernardo is a late replacement so, I don’t like her in any format whatsoever.  If you have the salary left over for Renau, I don’t hate her in cash.  If I used her it would only be to fill my final spot.  I think her upside is limited so, she is only a cash play for me.

Holbrook (-170) 8.8k vs Gouti (+140) 7.4k

Right from the get go, both of these fighters are GPP plays only.  It’s very likely someone is getting knocked out here.  The big question is who?  Both fighters have shown they have weak chins.  Holbrook is 2-2 in the UFC while Gouti is 0-3 so I definitely want some exposure to this fight in tournaments.  From just a game theory play I like Gouti more.  He should be lower owned with some decent upside.  While I like Gouti I will also have some lineups with Holbrook as well.  Target this fight in GPPs just, don’t have 100% exposure to this fight in short.

Magomedsharipov (-445) 9.3k vs Santigo (+355) 6.9k

The odds alone should dictate where to lean in this fight.  Santigo is a late notice replacement that just fought less than a month ago.  I definitely think the fact he will have to cut weight 2 times in less than a month is not a good thing at all.  Especially against someone of Magomed’s caliber.  He is a very good striker, is very quick, with very good ground and pound.  I love him in all formats and think he should score over 100 DraftKings points in a win.

Edilov (-620) 9.5k vs Mihajlovic (+460) 6.7k

Edilov is the highest priced fight on the card, and for good reason.  It’s almost like the UFC brought in Miajlovic to lose. While he does have a judo background, he tends to get tagged a lot.  Edilov is a great striker, with very strong leg kicks. Not to mention he is very quick with great combos.  I am locking in Edilov in my cash lineup and will also have heavy exposure to him in GPPs.  My only concern with Edilov is he finishes the fight too quickly and doesn’t score high enough to make him worth rostering at his high price tag.

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Prazeres (-360) 9.4k vs Burnell (+300) 6.8k

Prazeres is the 2nd highest priced fighter on the card and a great pivot off of Edilov in GPPs.  Many will have seen Burnell’s last few fights and notice he has a decent ground game.  He can pretty much lock in a sub from anywhere and while I can see him doing this I don’t think it’s very likely.  Prazeres has pretty good power in his hands and a good ground game.  So he has upside with takedowns if it goes to ground but also the upside on the feet as well. I like Prazeres in all formats, especially cash.  I might have Burnell in 1-2 lineups in large field tournaments if I am building over 10 lineups.

Bahadurzada (-145) 8.3k vs Wilkinson (+125) 7.9k

This is a GPP only fight for me.  I don’t feel overly confident in either fighter. Bahadurzada is a very wild striker which either leads to him getting a knockout or wearing himself out.  Wilkinson, on the other hand, is a very technical boxer which, sometimes leads to him being inactive at times.  So my lean is going to be towards Bahadurzada.  I think he has higher upside.

Taisumov (-260) 9.2k vs Silva (+200) 7k

This is a fight a will have very high exposure to.  Taisumov is one of those fighters that doesn’t have many holes in his game. He is a great striker with a very strong chin.  Silva on the other hand, while he does have decent KO power isn’t great on the ground.  I love the safety in cash with Taisumov because even if he gets clipped the chances of him getting knocked out aren’t very likely.  So I love his floor for that aspect but, also his ceiling.  In a win, I can see him scoring close to 90 in a decision.  On the flip side of things, I will have some exposure to Silva,  just not a lot.

Rakic (-125) 8.5k vs Barroso (+105) 7.7k

Rakic has a very strong kickboxing background. Along with that he is very quick and has very decent power. Barroso comes from a BJJ background.  He has ok kicks but, he often times gets tired in his fights.  When he gets tired he tends to be on the receiving end of a beating.  So for us, that means to target Rakic.  At 8.5k I love his price.  He should score fairly well in a win.  I will only have exposure to Rakic in this fight and it will be a healthy dose.

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Till (-185) 8.9k vs Velickovic (+160) 7.3k

Till is known as a counter striker and Velickovic is an ok wrestler.  I just think this will be a very low out and low scoring fight.  This is a fight I am crossing off and just fading completely.

Khabilov (-300) 9.1k vs Green (+250) 7.1k

This is a GPP only fight for me.  Khabilov is a very good wrestler with 6+ TD upside which is great on DraftKings, plus he is on a 4 fight win streak.  Green has a decent jab and has shown he has okay defense against TDs.  I just don’t think he has faced the caliber of wrestler that Khabilov is.  My only concern with this fight is Green is able to stop the takedowns and thus nullify the upside of Khabilov.  If that’s the case, I don’t see Khabilov scoring high enough to pay off his price.  For that reason only he is a GPP play for me.

Edwards (-270) 9.2k vs Barberena (+230) 7.2k

This is one of those fights where I don’t agree with the odds.  Barberena is a very hard to put away fighter, plus he lands at a very high 5.2 significant strikes per minute. Edwards on the other hand, only lands at 2 significant strikes per minute.  Vegas sees this fight going the distance, so for us that means target Barberena in cash for sure. I love him in GPPs as well.  I haven’t figured out how popular he is going to be yet.  If Barberena ends up looking like he will be over 60% in GPPs then, a great leverage play would be to throw Edwards in at least 1 lineup at a fairly low ownership.  My preferred play is Barberena in all formats.

Volkov (-125) 8.4k vs Struve (+105) 7.8k

First off from a cash game standpoint I am stacking this fight.  This is a 5 round fight so it’s very likely the combined score on DraftKings will be over 125 points.  When that’s the case I always stack.  Both of these guys are very big guys. Volkov is going to want this fight to stay standing as long as possible.  Struve has a very good ground game plus, he will want to put on a strong showing in front of his home country.  If Volkov can keep fight standing I like his chances a lot. On the otherhand, if Struve gets this to the ground he could score very well.  My lean in GPPs right now is Struve but not by a lot.  I will have exposure to both probably at a 60-40 split.

Good luck this Saturday everyone!  Look for me in Slack with an MMA questions you may have.

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