We are nearing the NFL season and the excitement is almost palpable. Friends are starting to text each other and smack talk. Others are secluding themselves from the banter and focusing on choosing a witty team name that incorporates the name of an NFL player, I’m looking at you HaHa Clinton-Dix. No matter what camp you reside in we are all in the same fight together. The draft is where you get to test yourself and see how well you are able to adapt and react to the ever changing landscape of your power rankings. One way to make sure you are standing atop the mountain after the draft is by making sure you acquire as much value as possible. This article will showcase a handful of players that are being overvalued. It doesn’t mean they are necessarily potential landmines but that they are being drafted earlier than they should.
*I used FantasyFootballCalculator.com to research the Average Draft Position (ADP) across 1,526 mock drafts from August 5th-August 8th. The leagues were 12 teams and point-per-reception (PPR). All ADP listed are referring to those findings on the site*
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- Adrian Peterson
Is this the curious case of Adrian Peterson? I think not. A 32-year-old running back who struggled last season in limited playing time is not going to be rejuvenated and become unbreakable my going to another team. Peterson struggled last season because the Vikings were running a lot more out of the shotgun. News flash, the Saints run a boat load of the shot gun offense!
He will be overvalued on name recognition alone from those that long for yesteryear. He’s going as the 24th running back off the board and 60th player overall. Those aren’t terrible spots to take a chance on him but there are much better choices all around him. I would much rather have his teammate, Mark Ingram, who’s younger, looks incredible and knows the offense better. He’s going a round later and if father time catches up to Adrian, then Ingram is looking at the lions share of carries.
- Marshawn Lynch
Lynch is joining a loaded offense with a very good line to run behind. He doesn’t have the toughest competition to beat out and should receive the majority of the work in the backfield. This is exactly why I am worried. A 31-year-old running back who took the entire 2016 NFL season off likely won’t come back on the scene and just dominate the way he did in 2014. Everyone seems to forget that he was largely ineffective in 2015 before getting injured and missing most of the season. For those that are keeping track that’s a bad season followed by a retirement year off and now coming back and being drafted as the 13th overall running back and closing in on being a late second round pick.
However likely it is that he will rack up a bunch of goal line touchdowns I firmly believe his gas tank is running low and he will fall short of his ascending expectations. I would gladly take Paul Perkins, who was highlighted in my column last Wednesday, as the 31st running back and 72nd overall player.
- Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce is being drafted way too high for a guy who has never shown the propensity for being able to score touchdowns. Yes, he will catch a lot of footballs and hasn’t missed a game in three seasons. However, he is capped by the structure of the offense and poor red zone play calling.
As the second tight end off the board and the 37th overall pick, he’s an easy fade. I would much rather have Sammy Watkins, Ty Montgomery, and Tom Brady, all who are right around Kelce in averaged draft position. Taking one of those players and grabbing Jimmy Graham (5th tight end and 65th overall) or Tyler Eifert (6th tight end and 73rd overall) seems like you’re giving your lineup much more week to week upside and forgoing the safety that Travis Kelce gives you.
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- Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan had the type of season in 2016 that won a lot of people their championships. The beautiful part was that most of the time you didn’t pay a high price in the draft for the production he gave you. This is exactly why I want to fade Matt Ryan this season. We saw his ceiling last year and now you have to pay for it by making him the 4th quarterback off the board and 64th overall pick. Can he repeat his production? I suppose he very well could but I believe he will fall short of expectations.
Russell Wilson is being taken as the 6th quarterback off the board and 81st pick overall. The Seahawks offense looks primed to open it up and throw the ball a little more and a healthy Wilson with two strong ankles is destined to outproduce his average draft position. Kirk Cousins is going off the board as the 8th quarterback and 92nd overall selection. He has a bevy of weapons surrounding him and if he proves his worth he likely will get paid a handsome reward. I am not sold on the running game in Washington this season and Kirk going this late seems like an absolute steal. With options like these 20-30 picks later there is no reason to take Matt Ryan where he is being selected.
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You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I love to interact with my followers and discuss all things sports.
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