It’s Bristol baby! This week we prepare for one of the most prestigious races on the schedule. The Bristol night race. We are in crunch time in terms of making the playoffs, so tensions will be high. Remember this is just a primer article, the good one that has been winning all the money will go up Saturday morning. Remember the race is Saturday night, and both practices and qualifying is on Friday. Until then it would be a good idea to get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. To start the week off, let’s take a look a Bristol Motor Speedway:
0.533-mile concrete oval
Degree of banking in corners: 24 to 30 degrees
Degree of banking in straights: 4 to 9 degrees
Straightaways: 650 feet long.
Concrete racing surface: 43 feet wide.
Bristol has two pits roads: 22 pit stalls on the front stretch and 21 on the back stretch
Pit Stall Size: 25.5 feet long, 15.5 feet wide
Pit Road Speed: 30 mph
Pace Car Track Speed: 35mph
Lets start by taking a little peak back to what we talked about for the spring race
Bristol is a whole different animal from any track on the circuit (save for maybe Dover?). We go there twice a year, once in the day and once at night, and the track surface has been mangled and bastardized to no end – and that isn’t a bad thing. This year, Bristol is going back to the well with the track sealant on the bottom line that they debuted last year. For those who are new to the sport – Bristol has progressive banking. Tracks do this in an attempt to make the bottom line and top line equally fast. However, when Bristol implemented this banking style they kind of overdid it. For years after, the racing was quite dull, as everyone had to run the top line, and there was no passing. Last fall, they tried to rectify this by painting the bottom line a grippy sealant, which actually worked for most of the race and we had side-by-side racing again! Towards the end of the race, the sealant wore off, and we were back to follow the leader on the top line. During the offseason, Bristol has worked to add a more permanent form of sealant – but its effectiveness will be unknown until the race this weekend is run. This is important because IF it is effective, the potential of place differential plays being effective is much higher.
So where does that leave us for THIS WEEKEND? Lets start by taking a look at the Bristol day race earlier this year.
Larson, true to form at the time, sat on the pole and dominated early – a feat I anticipate the pole sitter will repeat. Outside of that, we say domination from Truex Jr, Johnson and Logano. I think all those drivers have a chance to repeat, but I think we should keep an eye on Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth – both Bristol aces who have tremendous form. I anticipate we will be back to Toyota domiantion this weekend, so Busch, Truex and Kenseth should be big ticket items.
This illustrates why I will be on Joe Gibbs Racing. They always show up at Bristol. Kenseth spends 77% of laps in the top 15 at Bristol which is inhuman. Coupled with a drool-worthy quality pass percentage of 76% – Kenseth is straight money at Bristol. If qualifying is cancelled, he will start towards the back and he will be a must play.
Another one that pops up in the box score is Chase Elliott. The youngster has had a great career at Bristol with a second best 70% quality pass percentage. Chase obviously has fast cars this years and will be worth a look this week.
Next I want to talk about the elephant in the room – Ricky Stenhouse JR. This will be EVERYONES value play of the week, because he always ends up in the top ten towards the end of races at Bristol. Couple that with the fact that the Roush Fenway collective has had tremendous success in 2017, he is going to be very very chalky this week. Hopefully we get some practice this week, but I am not one hundred percent sold. He should be priced up this week, and his stats OUTSIDE of average finish are pretty pedestrian. He MIGHT be a valuable fade this weekend, but we will talk more on Saturday.
So in summary, Joe Gibbs, Chase Elliott, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr stick out as the most interesting plays this week, so spend some time with them this week.
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