Dang, wern’t we just here!? We are back in the Irish Hills and your weekend research starts right here. Michigan is a track I feel like we have a really good read on. It tends to be somewhat predictable with a low incident rate. So let’s hop into it with a little overview of the 2 – mile oval.
2.0-mile D-shaped oval
200 laps, 400 miles
Stages: stage 1 ends lap 60; stage 2 ends lap 120; final stage ends lap 200 (unless OT)
Banking: turns: 18 degrees; straights: front stretch 12 degrees, backstretch 5 degrees
Backstretch Length: 2,242 feet
Frontstretch Length: 3,600 feet
Pit lane is 50 feet wide and contains space for 44 individual pit areas
Pit Road Speed: 45mph
Now most of this article will be revisiting and reworking the research we did for the first race, but I do want to add some notes. Let’s start by reviewing last June’s Michigan race.
So the dominators were the usual suspects – Larson, Busch and Truex Jr. Here’s the thing, a couple weeks ago the NASCAR police caught up to Kyle Larson and he has lacked elite speed since. Now, Larson is still fast and is the king of two mile races right now (he’s won the last three). However, I think the power of the Toyotas will be hard to compete with, and I would expect Kyle Busch and Martin Truex to lead the charge again this weekend.
Another note that I want to make about this race is that despite the finish, Ryan Blaney and Daniel Suarez were both competitive before finding trouble in the final stage. I expect Suarez especially to be a top ten car all day on Sunday, well Kenseth, Hamlin, and Jones should also have a distinct advantage on the field. Play as much Toyota as you can this weekend because they have a real leg up on everyone.
Michigan is very similar to Fontana – give or take a few degree here and there. So perhaps our best course of action would be to take a little look-see at the Fontana race earlier this year.
So the story of the day was Larson and Truex Jr. -surprise surprise!
We can also lean on last years races at Michigan too, since they 2017 aero package was used in those races. So let’s looked at the optimals from those races.
So, Chase Elliott and Brad K. found their way into the optimal during both races last year – and that is no surpise. Both carry superb track histories. Take a look at average running position for Michigan.
Both Chase and Brad make an appearance in the top five.
Also take note of Joey Logano here – whose stats are strikingly similar to Brad’s. While it’s been a rough go for old Joey these last couple weeks, I think he can compete for a top ten this weekend. If that’s the case, and both Brad and Joey bring speed, it’s safe to say Ryan Blaney will be locked and loaded as well. His stats aren’t lights out here, but he is transcending his stats in 2017. Look for Blaney to build on his momentum this week.
Now let’s look for some value. Hopefully you are seeing what I am seeing in that last image. The brothers Dillon have a knack for getting it done with the speeds are high, and I would hazard to guess Michigan will be no different. I am going to be keeping a close eye on Ty Dillon this weekend, who will be underpriced and hopefully overlooked. He has been a staple value play all year and that continues this week.
Now for my favorite value-finding metric: Quality Passes. Keep in mind this shows TOTAL quality passes since 2005. Obviously the guys at the top have had more laps to make passes so the list is a bit skewed. However, you still have to be passing cars to make it on this list, which means you know how to get around Michigan. McMurray, Newman and Menard all share very similar stats at Michigan, which means we are keeping a close eye on Menard this weekend. He will be priced in the $6000s and if he can post Newman-esque results he will certainly be in the optimal. Obviously Newman and McMurray will also be solid looks this weekend as well.
David Ragan is another guy worth looking at. He is a survivor at Michigan and if he can keep his nose clean against a poor starting spot, he could find his way in the optimal.
Make sure you check back Saturday night for the Sway Bar!
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