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The Competition Caution 2017 NASCAR DFS Darlington Preview

Throwback weekend is here as we had to one of the most unique tracks on the circuit. Darlington is uneven, narrow and often difficult to pass egg shaped oval that is affectionately referred to as the “Lady in Black”. It is among the most difficult tracks on the circuit, and will certainly provide and tumultuous evening for a host of drivers. As always, we start by taking a high level look at Darlington Motorspeedway:

Track/Race Length: 1.366 egg-shaped oval, 367 laps, 501.322 miles
Banking: Turns 1/2 – 25 degrees, width 79 ft; Turns 3/4 – 23 degrees, width 62 ft; Front – 3 degrees, Back – 2 degrees.
Frontstretch – 1,229 ft long, 90 ft wide;
Backstretch – 1,229 ft long, 90 ft wide
Pit Road: Length: 2,025 feet, Width: 46 feet
Speed Limits: Pace Car – 50 mph, Pit Road – 45 mph
Track Last Repaved in early 2008

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It’s going to be a tough week, because Darlington is so treacherous, and being consistently good at Darlington is a tall task.  To start our research, lets look at last years results. 

Last years race saw Kevin Harvick put a whoopin on the field, leaving over 200 laps on the way to a second place finish. Outside of that, we saw Keselowski and Larson lead around 45 laps, and that was about it. Regardless, I think this is an outlier – I anticipate atleast two dominators this week, one of which will be the pole sitter, along with two place differential plays and one value play. Step one, let’s find some dominators.

When it comes to Darlington – Denny Hamlin is the best at this. His average finish is 6.3 which is absolutely bonkers for such a tough race track. While he never leads significant laps, he always finishes towards the front. What’s more is that Hamlin has probably the best form in all of NASCAR, just check out his recent finishes:

I think Denny Hamlin could be a sneaky favorite this week. But the true favorite will be no doubt be Kyle Busch and for good reason.

Average quality passes, fast laps and laps led all belong to Kyle Busch – who also carries pretty impressive form into this week. I expect Toyota will bring the heat this weekend, and if thats the case – Kyle will be a dominator contender.

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If you are looking for a less chalky play, take a look at last years dominator Kevin Harvick, who owns an average finish of 14.2 with an impressive 12.3 percent laps led. The Ford’s haven’t had a ton of speed recently, but I expect the week off was welcome in that camp. Even if they are behind – Harvick is good enough to compete for a win.

Kyle Larson is another one to keep an eye on. He has never had a poor finish at Darlington, and will stroll in with his best car ever this weekend. He led significant laps here last year, kicking off his surge to relevancy that has carried over until now. I look for Larson to go full circle and lead laps this weekend.

Next, we need to find some value. The two the pop out right away are Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray, both of which have better cars than they have in the past. Both drivers average over 20 quality passes per race. While McMurray has an average finish of 16th, which isn’t super comforting – Ryan Newman boasts a double-take worthy 11.2. Keep an eye on zoomin’ Newman this weekend – he should be a solid play.

Lastly, Chris Buescher won’t show up on any stat sheets, since he only has one start – but in that one start he impressed A LOT. He started 31st and finished 17th, which is impressive for a rookie in less than stellar equipment. He will have a faster piece this year and should be valuable if qualifying doesn’t go as planned.

So to summarize – Hamlin, Busch, Harvick, Larson, McMurray, Newman and Buescher are all in play. We want 2 dominators, 2-3 place differential and 1 value. Qualifying will be huge so check back Saturday for my final picks!

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