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Alvarez Free Squares – MLB DFS Value Plays For the Wednesday 8/15 Main Slate

 

 Searching For the Free Square 

In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.

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Recap

For our pitcher free square last night we had Dan Straily who ended up with 7.05 DKFP which was right around 1.1x value. For our infielder free square, we had Logan Morrison who ended up with 12 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.5x value! For our outfielder free square, we had Jose Bautista who ended up with right around 7 DKFP which was good enough for 1.7x value. 

Tonight

We have a solid 9 game slate ahead of us for this Wednesday night. On the pitching side of things, we have Yu Darvish, Carlos Carrasco, and Marcus Stroman as our highest priced arms of the day. On the hitting side of things, we are led by the Colorado Rockies, Texas Rangers, and the Chicago Cubs as the highest implied run totals of the night. Let’s dive into the slate:

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Free Squares

  • Eduardo Rodriguez SP BOS ($7,300)
    • Eduardo Rodriguez and the Boston Red Sox will take on the St. Louis Cardinals at home at Fenway Park tonight. The Red Sox are currently -150 favorites and the Cardinals have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.29 runs. Rodriguez has had a pretty solid season so far for the Red Sox. He has the following advanced numbers on the season: .368 wOBA given up to lefties, .294 wOBA given up to righties, 26.2 K%, 9.3 BB%, .279 BABIP, 4.08 SIERA, 4.32 xFIP, and a 31.6 Hard%. He will face the Cardinals tonight who have been averaging 4.66 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against left handed pitching on the season: 4th in BB%, 18th in K%, 13th in OPS, 11th in ISO, 13th in wOBA, and 12th in wRC+. Outside of the high priced guys, there are not a ton of pitchers that I like tonight. Rodriguez is a guy who has been solid and can deliver us value which makes his a solid SP2 option tonight.
  • Rougned Odor 2B TEX ($3,500)
    • Rougned Odor and the Texas Rangers will take on the Detroit Tigers and Anibal Sanchez at home at Globe Life Park in Arlington tonight. Odor and the Rangers have an implied run total sitting at right around 6.23 runs tonight. Odor has had a good series against the Tigers so far and I expect that to continue tonight. He has the following numbers against right handed pitching in the season: 4.4 BB%, 24.1 K%, .745 OPS, .240 ISO, .308 wOBA, 86 wRC+, and a 38.6 Hard%. He gets to face Anibal Sanchez tonight who has the following numbers against left handed pitchers this season: .363 wOBA, 2.11 HR/9, 16.4 K%, 5.9 BB%, .303 BABIP, 5.17 xFIP, and a 30.5 Hard%. This is a great matchup for Odor with a huge implied run total tonight. I am not going to overthink this play and lock him at second base and include him in Ranger’s stacks.
  • Nick Markakis OF ATL ($4,000)
    • Nick Markakis and the Atlanta Braves will take on the Colorado Rockies and pitcher Jon Gray tonight at Coors Field. The Braves have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.74 runs. Markakis has quietly had a very good so far in Atlanta. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitchers: 11.1 BB%, 18.3 K%, .777 OPS, .121 ISO, .346 BABIP, .336 wOBA, 105 wRC+, and a 35.9 Hard%. He gets to face Jon Gray tonight who has the following numbers vs. left handed batters: .374 wOBA, 1.14 HR/9, 17.2 K%, 6.9 BB%, .368 BABIP, 4.19 xFIP, and a 32.7 Hard%. I really like this matchup for Markakis tonight he gets to face an average pitcher in Jon Gray tonight and he gets to do it in the friendly hitting confines of Coors Field. I love him as a one off and do not mind a Braves stack tonight.

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Shorter slate tonight but there are a lot of ways we can go with both pitchers and hitters tonight. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today!  With my free square pick, I am going to go with Braves outfielder Nick Markakis tonight! Good luck Army!

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