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Luis Severino (vs MIL) – It’s always a bit unnerving when Severino is the chalk, but he does get the Brewers and their third-highest K-rate against right-handed pitching. The Yankees are listed as -215 moneyline favorites, and although Severino hasn’t been his usually dominant self lately, there aren’t too many options to choose from either. Severino should pay off somewhere close to his value on strikeouts alone.
Adalberto Mejia (vs BAL) – I mentioned earlier that the Orioles have yet to defeat the Twins this season, but Mejia has been in great form with at least 32 FDP in each of his last three starts. The Orioles just got skilled a few days ago in their last start against a lefty (Brent Suter.)
Marcus Stroman (vs HOU) – Obviously, I’m not enthralled with the idea of going up against the Astros, but you can argue that Stroman is the best pitcher on this slate. He does have solid numbers against current members of the Astros, with an opposing .218 avg, 21.4% strikeout rate and two extra-base hits (both HR) in 84 plate appearances.
Mike Fiers (@TOR) – Once again, not my favorite play of the day…but Fiers is 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA over his last seven starts and hasn’t allowed a home run in 41 innings. That has to count for something.
Aaron Nola (vs SD) – He’s got the #1 matchup of the day going up against the Padres, who own the highest K-rate against right-handed pitching. Nola has posted three straight outings of at least 52 FDP and 8 strikeouts. The Padres don’t have too many intimidating left-handed bats in their lineup and that is who Nola struggles against the most.
Stephen Strasburg (vs ATL) – Since the start of 2015, Strasburg is 6-1 in nine starts against the Braves. However, they have done a good job against the Nats’ aces this season and that makes him a risky option with the elevated price tag. Strasburg should have a solid day on strikeouts alone, but I could see him falling just short of reaching value.
Adam Wainwright (vs NYM) – He’s looked solid in his last three starts (posting 8 Ks in the last two) but don’t look at Waino’s box score from last game and think it was all bad from the 6 ER he allowed. The Cards were up huge in that game and Wainwright basically went out there pitching BP to a talented lineup. Wainwright is 6-1 at Busch Stadium this year with a 3.42 ERA.
Zack Wheeler (@STL) – He’s been quite erratic this season, but Wheeler is 6-0 with a 2.06 ERA in 11 career starts in the month of July.
Wellington Castillo (@MIN) – Cheap with power upside against a left-handed pitcher.
Stephen Vogt (@NYY) – One of the few Brewers that has ever faced Severino and he’s 2-for-5 with a double against him… Also has massive HR upside in a great hitter’s park.
Russell Martin (vs HOU) – 3-for-10, HR against Fiers.
Kurt Suzuki (@WSH) – 4-for-8 with a double and 3 HR over the last two games.
Andrew Knapp (vs SD) – He’s played very well since getting more opportunities for playing time and hasn’t posted a zero since June 20th. His baserunning skills are well above average for a catcher and that lends him some slight upside.
Justin Smoak/Kendrys Morales (vs HOU) – Neither guy is crushing it at the moment, but they almost always have solid HR upside.
Trey Mancini (@MIN) – .333 avg with 3 doubles over the last seven games and Mancini has been a force against left-handed pitching.
Eric Thames (@NYY) – HR upside, that’s about it.
Logan Morrison (vs BOS) – 20 HR (4th most in MLB) and 1.001 OPS (12th most in MLB) against right-handed pitching.
Matt Adams (@WSH) – 6-for-17 with 4 XBH (2 HR) against Strasburg.
Hanley Ramirez (@TB) – .375 avg with 2 doubles and 2 HR over the last seven games.
Tommy Joseph (vs SD) – .296 avg with 3 doubles, a triple, 2 HR, 5 RBI and 5 runs over the last seven games.
Brian Dozier (vs BAL) –.343 avg, .425 OBP with 7 doubles and 2 HR against left-handed pitching.
Jose Altuve (@TOR) – 13-for-27 with 2 doubles, HR, 7 RBI and 6 runs over the last six games.
Jonathan Schoop (@MIN) – .333 avg with 2 HR over the last seven games.
Daniel Murphy (vs ATL) – 8-for-25 with 5 XBH (1 HR) against Teheran.
Dustin Pedroia (@TB) – .367 avg with 2 doubles, HR and 10 RBI over the last seven games.
Brad Miller (vs BOS) – 7-for-26 with 2 doubles and 4 HR against Porcello.
Carlos Asuaje (@PHI) – Nola does struggle against lefties, and Asuaje hitting .333 over the last six games. He’s more of a salary-saving option than a hero.
Manny Machado (@MIN) – Double-donged yesterday, was it a quick fix? Not sure, but Machado is actually $100 cheaper today than he was yesterday on FanDuel. He also has a team-high 5 HR against lefties.
Miguel Sano (vs BAL) – .324 avg, 2 HR and 7 RBI over the last eight games.
Josh Donaldson (vs HOU) – I suppose you can use him today for power upside, but it’s a tournament play at best with the way he’s been hitting lately.
Alex Bregman (@TOR) – 8-for-21 with 6 doubles and 6 runs over the last six games.
Freddie Freeman (@WSH) – 7-for-17 with 2 doubles, HR, 5 RBI over the last four games. He is also 14-for-38 with 7 XBH (4 HR) against Strasburg.
Jedd Gyorko (vs NYM) – Multi-hit games in three of the last four and seven double-digit fantasy point games over the last 11.
Carlos Correa (@TOR) – Career-best 15 game hitting streak and career-best 23 straight games reaching base safely.
Eduardo Escobar (vs BAL) – .329 avg and team-high 5 HR against left-handed pitching this season.
Troy Tulowitzki (vs HOU) – .360 avg over the last seven games. Tulo is also 4-for-5 with a HR against Fiers.
Didi Gregorius (vs MIL) – Could be a sneaky option since he’s always hit left-handed pitching well.
Jose Reyes (@STL) – 7-for-18 with 3 doubles and 2 HR over the last five games.
Freddy Galvis (vs SD) – .276 avg with a double, HR and 2 SB over the last week. Not the greatest numbers, but he does pop off with some big games every now and again.
Aaron Judge/Clint Frazier (vs MIL) – Judge: .381 avg with 3 HR over the last six games… Also has a .339 avg and 7 HR against left-handed pitching – Frazier: Still incredibly cheap on FD and nearly hit his second career HR last night.
George Springer/Josh Reddick/Marwin Gonzalez (@TOR) – Springer: 14-for-28 with 4 doubles, 3 HR, 8 RBI and 11 runs over the last six games… 2 of those homers came last night – Reddick: 7-for-18 (.545 OBP) with 3 doubles, HR, 9 RBI and 6 runs over the last six games – Gonzalez: 2 doubles, 2 HR, 8 RBI and 6 runs over the last six games… Also has double-digit fantasy points in six straight games.
Adam Jones/Mark Trumbo/Joey Rickard (@MIN) – Jones/Trumbo: HR upside with a discounted rate against a lefty – Rickard: He is the one that I really like in this spot. Usually batting leadoff against lefty pitchers, Rickard is always cheap/low-owned and usually puts up 9-12 FDP when given a start. Against the Twins, that total could jump in a big way.
Domingo Santana/Hernan Perez (@NYY) – Santana: 13-for-25 with 3 doubles, HR, 6 RBI and 8 runs over the last seven games – Perez: He has exceptional pop to the opposite field and he might be able to sneak one out and up over the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium against Severino.
Brian Goodwin (vs ATL) – 15-for-45 with 3 doubles and 3 HR over the last 13 games.
Bryce Harper (vs ATL) – Owner of the greatest BvP numbers against a single pitcher, Harper is 16-for-36 with 10 XBH (7 HR) against Teheran.
Corey Dickerson/Steven Souza Jr (vs BOS) – Dickerson: 8-for-25 with 4 doubles and 1 HR against Porcello – Souza: 7-for-23 with a HR against Porcello.
Jay Bruce (@STL) – 12-for-41 (.293 avg) with 2 doubles, 2 HR and 5 BB against Wainwright.
Andrew Benintendi/Jackie Bradley Jr (@TB) – Benintendi: .409 avg with 2 doubles and 2 HR over the last six games – Bradley Jr: Starting to cool off a bit, but he’s still got a good game in him before the ASB.
Ender Inciarte (@WSH) – Doesn’t have great BvP numbers against Strasburg (4-for-20) but he is 9-for-27 with 3 doubles and HR over the last six games.
Daniel Nava (vs SD) – 8-for-19, .476 OBP over the last seven games.
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