Ah yes, the beloved two day show. Qualifying and the race within 24 hours makes DFS projections tough – but the DFS Army has you covered. This weekend we attack the Brickyard 400 – an uhhh, awkward race? To start, make sure you check you my primer article “The Competition Caution” . As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Top Plays
Kyle Larson – I am getting sick of talking about Kyle Larson – but he just keeps putting himself in great DFS positions. This week he rolls off 25th with a top 5 car at a track where he has shown real elite prowess. His worst finished here in his career is ninth, and that was back when he didnt have elite equipment. Larson will be super chalky this week, but near impossible to fade.
Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch OWNS Indy. Since 2012 his average finish is 3.2. That is just ridiculous. I expect that form to continue this week. He will probably lead all of the first stage, get shuffled back during end of stage foolishness, and find his way to the front in the last stage. He is an elite play this week.
AJ Allmendinger – I could go into all sorts of different reasons why AJ makes sense this week, but it all boils down to one fact – he starts 40th at $6900. A top 25 will be enough to see the optimal line up, and a top 25 is about his floor barring any incidents – of which there are few at Indy. He will be in most everyone’s core this week so it’s an attractive fade, but probably not a smart one.
Matt Kenseth – I like Kenseth as a pivot in a week where we will likely see chalk reign. Kenseth starts 14th with top 7 speed, and comes with pretty good form. I think he is a prime candidate to pit early to try to get the lead at the start of segment two. If he does that, he could log some dominator points – a rare sight for Kenseth in 2017. At Indy, he hasn’t ended up outside the top 7 since 2017. Plus, he is in a Toyota!
Warnings
According to Rodney Childers, crew chief of Kevin Harvick, all the Fords are at noticable Aero disadvantage at this point. This does not bode well at the super aero dependent Indy. Now – Childers isn’t above spreading false information, so take it with a grain of salt, but the Ford performance has NOT been up to snuff recently.
I also have concerns about the RCR camp, who have all lacked speed over the last few weeks.
Value Plays
AJ Allmendinger – See above
Aric Almirola – If there is one Ford I have confidence this week, its Almirola – and that is only because of his 29th starting spot. I think Almirola should power foward pretty quick in this race and gut out a top 25, and maybe compete for a top 20. At a track like Indy, where differential potential is limited, that is notable. I like him as a Cash play alot.
Daniel Suarez – Daniel Suarez should be able to get a top ten on equipment alone this weekend. He starts 15th, which is somewhat concerning but as we have discussed, place differential is at a premium this week. I am also impressed more and more with Suarez as the season progressed, and getting more comfortable leaning on him. I’ll have lots of Danny this weekend.
Overall I think the strategy is to try and got one dominator, two max, and fill out with the best place differential plays you can. Indy is just such an uneventful, hard to pass race – any driver you think can go +5 places during the course of the race is worth a play. It will be a very chalky week too, so do what you can to get off that chalk. Good luck!!