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Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
John Deere Classic Recap:
Daniel Berger – All formats – (T5 – 102 DK Points)
I felt Berger was a great play due to his skillset and projected ownership. Despite never playing the event Berger set up perfectly to perform well. Berger did just that and came in with around 12% ownership across GPP’s (one of the lowest among guys above 9K.) Berger ended up with less than half of the ownership of others in the group and ended up in the top ten in DraftKings points for the week.
Wesley Bryan – All formats – (T3 – 117.5 DK Points)
When I said Daniel Berger set up perfectly for the course I lied, Wesley Bryan was the one that set up perfectly for the course. Bryan has shown us in his short PGA career he has a specific skill set – give him a pitching wedge and you’ll see the top fives rack up. Bryan has about 22% ownership across GPP’s so although he was chalky he finished with the second most fantasy points, making him a necessary part of winning teams
Ben Martin – Cash – (T39 – 81.5 DK Points)
Martin was a lock for me in cash games as I felt he was about as good of a play as we have seen in weeks. Martin was affordable given the field and his recent play and he did exactly what was needed to provide your cash lineups a chance to succeed.
Kelly Kraft – GPP – (T64 – 70.5 DK Points)
I had Kraft pegged for GPP’s given his upside if he could put the whole game together. Kraft made the cut but did not do much on the weekend.
The Open Championship Preview
The third major of the season is upon us! This year the Open Championship is taking place at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England. From a DFS perspective, any major provides larger tournaments which brings in players who don’t regularly play DFS Golf. From our perspective this is great, we can gain an advantage on the recreational player through research of the course.
Royal Birkdale is a par 70 playing 7,173 yards. The course was last played in 2008 when Padraig Harrington took home the Claret Jug. In that year a few current players finished high up on the leaderboard; Ian Poulter, Henrik Stenson and Paul Casey all finished within the top 10. All three of these players share a few traits within their games; they are all accurate off of the tee and great tee-to-green.
Looking further at the course affirms that these player traits are needed for success at Birkdale. Specifically, players will need driving accuracy to stay on the fairways. The course is not necessarily long but it is narrow off of the tee. Padraig Harrington and Tommy Fleetwood were both quoted discussing how the first shot is really tough with narrow fairways and bunkers always in play. With fairway bunkers and not so favourable rough driving accuracy will be necessary (sorry Phil).
As always Shots Gained: Approach is an important stat. Players who can set themselves up and avoid scrambling will have an advantage. Using our PGA VIP Spreadsheet will allow you to see course adjusted approach stats which is crucial because it is a much better indicator of success than simply looking at the PGA tour’s approach statistics.
Finally, Scrambling will be crucial this week especially if wind picks up (we’ll get to that later). Players will inevitably get into precarious situations and being able to save pars will be huge.
The course is also a Links course so I am giving an edge to those who have shown the ability to play well in links style golf.
One major thing to pay attention to throughout the week is the weather. The last two times the Open Championship has played at Royal Birkdale (1998 and 2008) have had winning scores of even and +3 because the winds picked up. As of right now, the weather is looking okay but that can change at any moment. Finding players who can play in poor conditions can be a huge difference maker in constructing winning lineups.
Open Championship Picks
Sergio Garcia – All Formats – DK:$ 10600 FD: $9600
At the top of the price range, I am really liking Sergio for the week. Sergio has been on fire this year (2 wins, three top tens, 10/10 made cuts), has historically been great at the Open Championship and has the game that lines up to perform well here. I think Sergio sees a lot of ownership because of this but I will still be overweight on him for the week.
Henrik Stenson – GPP – DK: $9600 FD: $8700
Stenson is quietly showing good form just in time to defend his Open Championship title. With a T10 and a T26 in his last two events, I am not worried about his earlier season struggles. Also, I think from a game theory perspective in big GPP’s Stenson sets up as a perfect pivot play.
It is always hard to predict ownership in Majors because there are so many possible ways in which a line-up can be constructed. However, with that being said I think Stenson will see suppressed ownership as a result of being priced next to Tommy Fleetwood, Rickie Fowler and Hideki Matsuyama. All three of these players are coming in with great form and are being talked up (especially Ricky) so a pivot to Stenson in some GPP lineups makes a lot of sense.
Finally, In 2008 Stenson finished T3 at Royal Birkdale showing he has the game for this event.
Matt Kuchar – All Formats – DK: $7200 FD: $7500
Every Major Kuchar finds himself with a mid 7k price tag on DraftKings and every Major he seems incredibly underpriced. The Open Championship is no exception and once again Kuchar looks underpriced in an event that looks to play at his strengths as a player. Kuchar is a must play for me in cash and provides us with a tough decision in GPP’s. Kuchar will certainly be highly owned as he sticks out like a sore thumb at his price but how high will that number get? Regardless, I still will have some shares of Kuchar in GPP’s as I do not want to fully bet against a guy that has 6 top tens in 16 events this season.
Kyle Stanley – GPP – DK:$6600 FD: $5900
DraftKings always has a price range which seems to lump together many players that are viable plays. This week between $6600-6700 we see a long list of good players including; Brian Harman, Jason Dufner, Bill Haas, Wesley Bryan, Charles Howell, Daniel Berger, Kevin Kisner, Charley Hoffman, Byeong-Hun-An and Kyle Stanley. All ten of these guys are realistically playable and from a GPP perspective, I really like Kyle Stanley to come in at suppressed ownership with the skillset to compete here.
Stanley has been highly touted by those who weight statistics heavily. He has been in all of the stats I am looking at this week, great in tour adjusted stats (that you can see in our VIP Spreadsheet) and can be the guy to differentiate your teams.
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