MLB DFS ‘Chop’s Chin Music’ Winning Lineups Strategy 7-24

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At the end of this article is a link to a new challenge I’m starting this week.  Follow along by giving it a read!

Quick Glance

Quick refresh on the columns.  Wx is your weather forecast for the day on a safety scale of 1-10, with 0 being played in a dome.  Vegas P helps determine the odds your pitcher will get the win.  Green is good.  Vegas B is the run total of the game for hitters.  Again, green is good.

For an even better look at the weather, give @dfsmlbweather a follow!  He has quickly become a friend and our in-house meteorologist when it comes to DFS MLB advice.  I have personally seen him say not to worry about three games this year where others around the industry were calling the game too risky.  When it comes to baseball, you don’t want a weather guy that lives in fear of making mistakes (like most of my local tv guys).  Also, find his page on site at DFS MLB Weather.

MLB Pitchers for Winning DFS Lineups

The first thing we look for is a solid pitcher with upside.  I use Vegas odds and KScore to point me in the right direction.  I tie-break with price.  If there are two similar pitchers in Vegas and KScore, I will opt for the cheaper one.  The win is important, but not like it used to be before Fanduel broke up those points into quality starts and the win.  Now, on all sites, strikeouts reign supreme in DFS MLB!

Let’s attack this a little differently today being it’s the tale of two pitching options, depending on which stat you favor.  I’m big on my KScore metric because I believe high strikeout potential allows some margin for error when a pitcher allows a few runs.  However, a lot of people chase Vegas (like I used to before the points were split into QS and W) and rely heavily on the favorite to get a win.  I try to use a balance between the two, but today there just isn’t a super favorite worth his price due to low KScores.  Let’s discuss…

Jacob deGrom (NYM) – Everything likely starts here today.  Solid Vegas number, but not great.  But, the KScore tells us he should rack up some Ks.  11k salary worries me a bit, but the slate should be big enough to handle it.  So, we start here and need compelling reasons to drop in price or ability.  Greinke and Paxton are high priced pitchers, but don’t quite compare today.  Grienke has the -190 out of Vegas, but he takes on an ATL team that only strikes out 19% of the time.  This squashes his normally solid KScore down to a 477.  Add in the ballpark’s potential to put up big numbers and I don’t see Greinke piling up enough Ks to overcome this potential vs ATL tonight.  deGrom is simply a safer bet to rack the Ks.  Paxton has been great this year, but this is DAILY fantasy, not season long.  The Red Sox strike out even less than the Braves at 15%!!  That’s a number you don’t want to attack with pitching of any ability.  I’ve seen Paxton well over 500 in KScore, but today he’s down near 420……pass for this price.

Brad Peacock (HOU) – Peacock is a stellar strikeout talent.  He draws the Phils today, who tend to swing and miss.  So, we have another mediocre Vegas total with a nice KScore of 560, the slate’s highest.  This doesn’t mean Peacock should fan the most batters tonight; don’t misread the score.  It means he’s in an outstanding position to test the better side of his abilities.  When that comes to fruition and he strikes out 10, we have 30 points from which to overcome giving up 2-4 runs and still post a solid score from our pitcher if he goes somewhat deep into the game.  That’s what KScore tells you.  Looking through the pricing tier at other options, we find a hot Verlander facing KC.  Verlander is fine, but the KScore drops down to 420.  I don’t want to take that kind of hit in strikeouts unless the price is significantly better, and in this case it’s not.  Also, Verlander’s SIERA and ERA are up around 5.00 still, suggesting he might be better of late but still carries potential implosion in his arm.  Kyle Hendricks (not on main slate, but follow my point here for future process) has a huge Vegas line in his favor at -270, but does the KScore of 420ish do anything for you?  It doesn’t me.  The Cubs are riding hot and Vegas is feeding off that.  I’m just not feeling the safety here when I don’t have a decent sample of Hendricks this year.  For the $500 more, I’d rather just take Peacock and the Ks.  Wins are rather subjective and unpredictable.  Strikeouts are more predictable from pitchers.  Gerritt Cole is another that hits the radar in this tier.  He’s ok but he doesn’t strike out tons of batters and SF doesn’t strikeout a ton either.  It’s a very mediocre matchup at best.  Again, compared to Peacock’s upside, none of these are stacking up.

Blake Snell (TBR) – Snell becomes the #RideTheLightning play today.  If you really want cheap, he’s where I’d go but I don’t think I’m going below Peacock honestly.  When you get that low, you need something the others don’t have.  Typically all the cheap pitchers carry high SIERAs, but they do sometimes pop up with some KScore and Vegas support, which does turn my head sometimes.  Of those significantly under Peacock’s price, Snell is the only standout.  However, he carries significant risk as indicated by high SIERA, ERA, walk rate, and hard contact numbers.  That’s why if we take Mr. Snell, we are really set to ride some lightning.  But, man you can afford nearly any stack you want with him and he honestly might pan out in this spot…

Soft Pitching to Attack

Next, we start looking to bats.  We start the process by finding the softer pitching.  Perhaps the best, and fastest, way to accomplish this is to look at the last couple years MLB SIERA numbers.  If you don’t know what SIERA is, ask in our VIP Slack Chat rooms.  Someone will answer it quickly for you.  I look for those running over 5.00 and then over 4.50.  I write them down on paper so I can see them in one list.  NOTE:  Opponents will now be in parentheses.

Over 5.00 SIERA – Cain (PIT), Snell (BAL), Conley (@TEX), Liriano (OAK), Dickey (MIA), Colon (@LAD)

Implied Run Totals for DFS MLB Bats

Your next step is to look to Vegas to guide you in your quest for the best bats.  Implied run totals are not a great indicator of an actual score.  They are, however, a nice indicator of bad pitching, ballpark factors, and general good spots for our hitters.  I list them in order as I find them, crosscheck with where the pitcher shows weakness (handedness of bats), and then give you the best players (in CAPS) followed by the still playable players (lowercase).  If not on this list, you rarely find them in my MLB lineups.  Teams facing soft pitching will be in bold.  Good BvP matchups will be in italics.

TEX both – CHIRINOS, NAPOLI, gallo, beltre, choo, gomez

LAD both – TAYLOR, SEAGER, bellinger, puig, grandal, forsythe, turner, utley

CLE both – ALMONTE, ramirez, chisenhall, brantley, Egonzalez, ENCARNACION, lindor

MIA right – BOUR, REALMUTO, stanton, dietrich, riddle

ARI both – POLLOCK, DESCALSO, peralta, JD martinez, lamb, blanco, mathis, ianetta

For more players, and a little breakdown of which I’m building around, you just need to become a VIP.  Yes, membership has it’s privileges.  Click here to become a member –> ChoppoDong sent me!

Bonus Tip for Targeting Offenses to Stack

Today, I want to show you a simple way to pick some offenses.  Timing the stock market is difficult.  Perhaps the best strategy any advisor will tell you is “buy and hold.”  In DFS, this translates to running the same players/teams out again and again, especially when facing soft pitching.  Let’s look at which teams are giving up the most runs on the year and over the last month.

Season Long Runs Allowed Top 10

Here we could feasibly target Orioles, Reds, and Twins pitching just night after night and expect a few breakout performances when we stack.

30 Day Runs Allowed Top 10

Noties the Reds, Orioles, and Twins still in there.  Notice the appearance of the Rockies, too.  Many might scoff at this simple stacking theory, but if you ran a full stack tonight of Astros and Marlins, you likely find yourself unique on such a large slate.  My tip to you!

#DongCall!!

Back is the #DongCall, but guys this is supposed to be interactive.  We discuss it enough in Slack inside the Army VIP program, but you guys out here on Twitter are who I was hoping to have the most fun with.  If you tweet me your dong calls, or guesses at mine, I will retweet them and reply.  Twitter is an interactive space where we all grow our reach through interaction.  If you want some help, I’m willing to give it where I can.  I see #DongCalls as a perfect opportunity to get everyone talking about who they like for the day.  Let’s do it!

Previous #DongCall was Andrew McCutcheon who many not have rung the dong bell, but did kill the Rox like usual going 3/4 with 3 runs, 3 rbi, and 2 walks.