MLB DFS ‘Chop’s Chin Music’ Winning Lineups Strategy 7-20 (BOTH SLATES)

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At the end of this article is a link to a new challenge I’m starting this week.  Follow along by giving it a read!

Quick Glance

Quick refresh on the columns.  Wx is your weather forecast for the day on a safety scale of 1-10, with 0 being played in a dome.  Vegas P helps determine the odds your pitcher will get the win.  Green is good.  Vegas B is the run total of the game for hitters.  Again, green is good.

For an even better look at the weather, give @dfsmlbweather a follow!  He has quickly become a friend and our in-house meteorologist when it comes to DFS MLB advice.  I have personally seen him say not to worry about three games this year where others around the industry were calling the game too risky.  When it comes to baseball, you don’t want a weather guy that lives in fear of making mistakes (like most of my local tv guys).  Also, find his page on site at DFS MLB Weather.

MLB Pitchers for Winning DFS Lineups  (EARLY)

The first thing we look for is a solid pitcher with upside.  I use Vegas odds and KScore to point me in the right direction.  I tie-break with price.  If there are two similar pitchers in Vegas and KScore, I will opt for the cheaper one.  The win is important, but not like it used to be before Fanduel broke up those points into quality starts and the win.  Now, on all sites, strikeouts reign supreme in DFS MLB!

No one has a clear advantage from Vegas on the early slate today.  So, you look to KScore and price to dictate your options.

James Taillon (PIT) – Screw spelling, you know who I mean.  Slightly favored and carrying the better strikeout potential over his matchup opponent Jimmy Nelson.  I’ll take the savings and get an extra thousand in bats.  Jimmy isn’t a bad play.  I simply like Taillon a schoche better.

Luis Castillo (CIN) – Luis, however, is the intriguing option today.  In that “smallpark” where homers fly, and facing one of the scariest lineups in the majors, Castillo isn’t for the weak of heart.  But, he has the highest KScore on the slate and carries a smidge of approval from Vegas.  ARI hasn’t been quite as effective away from home and this could present a neat little play today.  It could also burn your ass worse than the noonday sun.  How daring are you?!

Soft Pitching to Attack

Next, we start looking to bats.  We start the process by finding the softer pitching.  Perhaps the best, and fastest, way to accomplish this is to look at the last couple years MLB SIERA numbers.  If you don’t know what SIERA is, ask in our VIP Slack Chat rooms.  Someone will answer it quickly for you.  I look for those running over 5.00 and then over 4.50.  I write them down on paper so I can see them in one list.  NOTE:  Opponents will now be in parentheses.

High SIERA – Fisher (TOR), Liriano (@BOS), Lugo (STL), Walker (@CIN)

Implied Run Totals for DFS MLB Bats

Your next step is to look to Vegas to guide you in your quest for the best bats.  Implied run totals are not a great indicator of an actual score.  They are, however, a nice indicator of bad pitching, ballpark factors, and general good spots for our hitters.  I list them in order as I find them, crosscheck with where the pitcher shows weakness (handedness of bats), and then give you the best players (in CAPS) followed by the still playable players (lowercase).  If not on this list, you rarely find them in my MLB lineups.  Teams facing soft pitching will be in bold.  Good BvP matchups will be in italics.

BOS right/both – HANLEY, VAZQUEZ, PEDROIA, travis

TOR left – pearce, tulo, martin, bautista, —> morales (BvP only)

CIN both – GENNETT, VOTTO, cozart, duvall, hamilton

ARI right – DESCALSO, pollock, owings, peralta, goldy

For more players, and a little breakdown of which I’m building around, you just need to become a VIP.  Yes, membership has it’s privileges.  Click here to become a member –> ChoppoDong sent me!

#DongCall!!

Back is the #DongCall, but guys this is supposed to be interactive.  We discuss it enough in Slack inside the Army VIP program, but you guys out here on Twitter are who I was hoping to have the most fun with.  If you tweet me your dong calls, or guesses at mine, I will retweet them and reply.  Twitter is an interactive space where we all grow our reach through interaction.  If you want some help, I’m willing to give it where I can.  I see #DongCalls as a perfect opportunity to get everyone talking about who they like for the day.  Let’s do it!

Previous #DongCall was Justin Turner…produced, but no dong.

MLB Pitchers for Winning DFS Lineups  (MAIN)

The first thing we look for is a solid pitcher with upside.  I use Vegas odds and KScore to point me in the right direction.  I tie-break with price.  If there are two similar pitchers in Vegas and KScore, I will opt for the cheaper one.  The win is important, but not like it used to be before Fanduel broke up those points into quality starts and the win.  Now, on all sites, strikeouts reign supreme in DFS MLB!

Better than the early slate for clarity, but still nothing to get overly excited about.  The better arms will cost you.

Brandon McCarthy (LAD) – This isn’t much of an upside play.  Sure, Vegas loves the Dodgers right now, but this is more of a “get the win and a few points” play.  Good news is, he’s cheap!  You only need a better than average start from him to exceed value and produce 40+ points, which he has done 5 times this season.  Problem is, 4 of his last 5 starts have been under 22 points.

Madison Bumgarner (SFG) – Many of you will jump on this with the “don’t get cute on Fanduel” mantra.  Let me advise you to look just a tad deeper at his game logs.  An 11k salary needs 45 to be competitive and actually needs 55ish to bring full value.  So far this year, MadBum has delivered in 5 starts…..49, 37, 37, 31, 31.  You tell me how much you want to spend that 11k now.  “But it’s San Diego, and they strike out!!” you say.  Ok, McSmarty, how does his last 5 starts vs SDP look to you…..31, 37, 18, 30, 33.  Now, tell me again how much you like that 11k.  A great SE GPP strategy might be to take a few SDP bats against him…..just sayin.

Luis Severino (NYY) – I’m not a huge fan of the other two, but this is the only other option I see on the slate being worth looking into.  KScore right there with MadBum, and for 2k cheaper.  People will tell you SEA hits righties with pop.  I will take that chance because I see 6 starts on the year over 45 points with upside to nearly 60….something the other two options can’t say.  I also see only a couple of horrid starts that really crush a lineup.  The more I dig in, this feels like a night to make a few lineups targeting the same offenses, but cycling the pitchers around hoping to catch the right mix.  I won’t be all in on any pitcher, and I usually am.

TIP – If you typically build one lineup, my advice would be to cut your budget into thirds and build three.  If you spend $10 a night, take tonight and build 3 lineups for $3 each.  If you play $5 per night, do the same with $1 or $2 on each.  Of course, you can do this with $100, too, but the math is obvious if that is your daily budget.

Soft Pitching to Attack

Next, we start looking to bats.  We start the process by finding the softer pitching.  Perhaps the best, and fastest, way to accomplish this is to look at the last couple years MLB SIERA numbers.  If you don’t know what SIERA is, ask in our VIP Slack Chat rooms.  Someone will answer it quickly for you.  I look for those running over 5.00 and then over 4.50.  I write them down on paper so I can see them in one list.  NOTE:  Opponents will now be in parentheses.

High SIERA – Hamels (@BAL), Miley (TEX), McCarthy (ATL), Duffy (DET), Folty (LAD)

Note – A couple of the pitchers we like above find themselves in this list, too, setting up an interesting night.

Implied Run Totals for DFS MLB Bats

Your next step is to look to Vegas to guide you in your quest for the best bats.  Implied run totals are not a great indicator of an actual score.  They are, however, a nice indicator of bad pitching, ballpark factors, and general good spots for our hitters.  I list them in order as I find them, crosscheck with where the pitcher shows weakness (handedness of bats), and then give you the best players (in CAPS) followed by the still playable players (lowercase).  If not on this list, you rarely find them in my MLB lineups.  Teams facing soft pitching will be in bold.  Good BvP matchups will be in italics.

BAL right – JOSEPH, SCHOOP, castillo —> trumbo

TEX neither – NAPOLI, gomez, choo —> lucroy, deshields, chirinos, andrus  (all of TEX has good BvP vs Miley…..gas can warning!!)

LAD left – BARNES, BELLINGER, PEDERSON, PUIG, thompson, taylor

Honorable Mentions:  DET right, SFG left, NYY both

For more players, and a little breakdown of which I’m building around, you just need to become a VIP.  Yes, membership has it’s privileges.  Click here to become a member –> ChoppoDong sent me!

#DongCall!!

Back is the #DongCall, but guys this is supposed to be interactive.  We discuss it enough in Slack inside the Army VIP program, but you guys out here on Twitter are who I was hoping to have the most fun with.  If you tweet me your dong calls, or guesses at mine, I will retweet them and reply.  Twitter is an interactive space where we all grow our reach through interaction.  If you want some help, I’m willing to give it where I can.  I see #DongCalls as a perfect opportunity to get everyone talking about who they like for the day.  Let’s do it!