So things are a little weird this week. Since qualifying is just 3 hours before racetime, I will be live blogging during qualifying. After qualifying is done, this will serve as the official Sway Bar article. More than ever, make sure you get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all day updating my research.
Top Plays
Kyle Busch – Even before qualifying starts, I am pretty sure Busch is going to be an elite play. He has a couple tenths on the field right now and show compete for the pole, and the win. If he does nab the pole he should dominate a fair portion of this race. EDIT: He is starting on the pole with nearly two tenths on the field. Play with confidence.
Kyle Larson – I would have loved to introduce some new faces to the Top Plays column, but alas – Larson went and Larson’d. He is starting 16th with top three speed, which makes him hard to fade. He has never finished outside of the top 12 at Pocono and as we all know – has been a top three play all year. He has lacked a bit of speed over that last few weeks but with a 16th starting spot, he doesn’t need to dominate – just compete for a top 5. I think he will do just that.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Gulp – I might regret this. Jr is really really good at Pocono. He found the wall in the first race here, but outside of that he always performs. Today he starts 23rd with a $7800 price tag. He has an average running position of 8.6 at Pocono, and a fire under him to get competitive before his career winds down. I am going to have a lot of JR this weekend.
Martin Truex Jr – I wasn’t all that high on Truex this week, until it turned out he was the only within half a second of Kyle Busch in qualifying. It may be tough to lead any significant laps with as fast as Busch is, but I think a stage win isn’t out of the question. I’m still not super high on him, but I think he is still a solid play.
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is a great option to get off the chalk this week, thanks to his 15th place starting spot. The #20 has a lot more speed than they did at the last Pocono race, and seem to have top 5 speed overall. I think Kenseth can compete for a top five and find the optimal with ease today.
Value Plays
Austin Dillon – Before heading into qualifying, I had my eye on Austin Dillon, who is priced at 6900. Now that he has qualified 26th, I am looking right at him. Pocono is one of Dillon’s best tracks, bringing home a 13th in 3 of the last 4 Pocono races. Now RCR has lacked a bit of speed recently, so don’t go overboard – but I think Dillon should find a top 15 pretty easy this week.
Ty Dillon – Little bro is looking good this weekend too, thanks to his terrible qualifying effort. Dillon rolls of 30th at a track that he has never been outside of the top 21. He has steadily improved all season and with a $6600 price tag – he is hard to ignore.
AJ Allmendinger – Of all the drivers who qualified outside of the top 24, Dinger has performed the best on 2 mile course in 2017. He struggled a bit here a couple weeks ago, but consider that an outlier. Allmendinger has a great track history at Pocono, and at flat tracks in general. A $6100 price tag means a top 15 will give him a shot of the optimal, a mark I think he could hit easily.
Stenhouse Jr – Rolling off 21st puts Stenhouse in a great spot this week. He finished 11th here in the first race, and I think his car is actually a little better this weekend. The Roush cars have been very quick on the 2 miles, and I think Stenhouse can use that speed to compete for a top 10 this week.