This week we head to Indy for the Snoozefest 400, er the Brickyard 400 – a prestigious albeit uneventful race. Alas, we will be making some cash. To be apart of it, make sure you check back this Friday for Taco’s Fast 40 Podcast, and The Sway Bar article on Saturday. Until then think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. To start the week off, let’s take a look at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Superspeedway: 2.5 mile quad-oval
Banking: turns: 9 degrees, 12 minutes
Straights: Front/Back – 3300 feet, Short Chute (between turns 1 and 2/3 and 4) – 660 feet
Indy is a track designed for Indy Cars. It is a single lane track that is not conducive to good racing when you fill it with full bodied stock cars. In order to make a pass at Indy, unless you have a super fast car, you kind of have to have the car you are passing’s blessing. The car in front of you has to give you the bottom lane, and they have to stay off throttle long enough for you to complete the corner. This means once a fast car gets the lead, it is pretty much over. So historically – one dominator, two max, is the motto.
Here’s the catch for 2017 – stage racing. At Indy, you can pit without losing a lap. This means that everyone outside of the top ten will pit before the end of stages, and the field will be flipped atleast twice. I think this is most likely going to benefit drivers like Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, Erik Jones etc. Guys that are struggling to make the playoffs on points and will probably need a win to make the playoffs. Essentially I think it will play out like this: The pole sitter will lead the first 50 laps, the next 50 laps will be a mix of random leaders that will be tough to anticipate, and the fastest car, probably the pole sitter, will lead most of the final 80 laps.
Chances are the pole sitter will be Truex, Kyle Busch or Kyle Larson. Whichever it ends up being will likely be close to a lock. Past that, I would be targeting 5 place differential plays. Just take a look at the top scorers in 2016.
Outside of Kyle Busch, who started first and dominated the race, the top five scorers had an average start position of 15.6. The optimal was a mostly balanced line up with one punt (Chris Buescher). That in mind, most of my line ups will feature the polesitter and five drivers outside of the top 12.
While we can’t do much about starting position yet, we can take a look at who has prowess here historically, and who we could target if they have a poor qualifying effort.
I know I mentioned Larson already, but I’d like to emphasize this. Even when Larson didn’t have elite cars he was very good at the Brickyard. He has an average finish of 6th across three starts, and an average running spot of around 8th. I kind of expect him to dominate this race, but let’s move on to the less obvious.
Matt Kenseth is a really smooth driver, and that pairs well with Indy. His form recently has been absolutely tremendous – he will almost certainly compete for a top 5. The problem is he will probably qualify quite well. Keep and eye on Kenseth as the weekend progresses – if he struggles in Q trim it could be an easy play.
Look up and you’ll see Kasey Kahne’s finishes at Indy since 2008. When his car is good, he usually performs. His cars have been horrible in 2017, but that usually leads to poor qualifying effort. I think if Kasey Kahne qualifies outside of the top 20 he will be a good play. He is very talented at Indy, just not talented enough to dominate.
Much in the same vain as Kahne, Boywer has a propensity for performing at Indy. Everything I said about Kahne applies to Bowyer.
Hurray for quality pass! My favorite stat.
First standout is Ryan Blaney – who thanks to his performance at Pocono will likely be very exposed this week. Alas, good flat track form with a good in-race history makes Blaney an attractive play. Again, the problem is Blaney usually qualifies too well to consider.
Next, the underground king, Paul Menard – A FORMER WINNER AT INDY – makes his way into the article. Menard has Indy figured out as well as anyone and usually doesn’t qualify well. Heres the problem, RCRs form has been so poor, I am scared to play any of them. If they are lacking in the engine department they will be exposed at Indy. Keep an eye on practice to see if RCR brought some speed.
Finally, AJ Allmendinger is very good at Indy. 50% because of his road course experience, and 50% because of his aggressive style. No one passes AJ on-track at Indy, so positive place differential is likely. Problem is he hasn’t finished in the top ten since 2008, and he will have the RCR power.
All in all, it’s hard to make any prediction pre-qualifying. At the end of the day it will be the polesitter plus 5 place differential plays. We will go back to work Saturday with more specifics!
Other DFS Army NASCAR Content
DFS Army Domination Station Nascar Optimizer
DFS Army Domination Station Optimizer NASCAR Tutorial
Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy NASCAR cheat sheet in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our NASCAR DFS Pros and likeminded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry NASCAR Projections Spreadsheet and the DFS Army Domination Station optimization tool. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and use promo code 20-OFF to lock in at 20% off the monthly membership fee. That’s just $20 a month for premium chat, coaching from sport-specific experts, cheat sheets and optimization tools. You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team.