I go by Blande over here at the Army and I’ve decided to try my hand at writing something for the WNBA slates. I’ll try to have a little write-up on games and player picks for every slate as we move through the second half of the schedule. These are just my thoughts as I walk through my research for each slate, hopefully they can aid others in their own research and lead to a rewarding experience for Army members. With that, let’s begin with today’s “MEGA” 5-game slate.
Chicago Sky @ Connecticut Sun (-6.5, ML: -270) – O/U: 172
This game has the highest vegas total at 172. Bigs – mainly forwards not centers – are good against the Sky. Jonquel Jones and Alyssa Thomas are in play. The last time these two teams played, Jones went off big time, but Stefanie Dolson didn’t play much in that game due to foul trouble. If Dolson can avoid foul trouble, I expect Jones to have a tougher day. On the guard front, Chicago gives up the most points and points per minutes when usage is considered. A high minutes and usage guard like Jasmine Thomas should have a good game. Shekinna Stricklen is also in play in GPPs.
Centers have a hard time against the Sun, averaging low usage and scoring. Forwards on the other hand get average usage and tend to score more, making Jessica Breland a good option today. Guards get average usage but struggle scoring against the Sun, making it had to like any Sky guards – except – Cappie Pondexter, given their elevated prices. As to Pondexter, she’s a potential value play on DK, not so much on FD given the Sun’s defense.
Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream (-5, ML: -210) – O/U: 163
Vegas expects this to be a close hard fought game, exactly the type we want to target. These two teams recently played, but in that game the make-up of the Mercury was completely different from what we’ll see today.
Without Brittney Griner manning the basket, Elizabeth Williams should be able to put up a good game against the Mercury. Sancho Lyttle should also have a good game given the potential for rebounds in this game. The Mercury have been very good against guards this season, however Layshia Clarendon found some success against them. Look to Clarendon and Brittney Sykes for guard potential here.
The Atlanta Dream perform poorly in terms of points per mins given usage against centers and forwards, Camille Little should be able to take advantage of this. For the Mercury to keep this close, they’ll need their guards to do the heavy lifting. The good news is, the Dream can be attacked using guards. Diana Taurasi who has been getting 36% usage since Griner went down is in an excellent position here, with her team needing her to be everything for them. Danielle Robinson and Monique Currie could also contribute.
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New York Liberty @ Minnesota Lynx (-13.5, ML: -1600) – O/U: 161
This game has the lowest total on the slate and vegas sees a massive blowout, that shouldn’t stop us from trying to find some gems in it. Remember, we do not predict blowouts here.
Sylvia Fowles is a no-brainer, she’s impossible to stop when she’s on. Vaughn and Stokes will have a tough day keeping her in check. Centers also tend to get a high amount of usage against the Liberty and score a lot. Forwards get good usage against the Liberty, but tend to be average in scoring. This makes it difficult to pay up for Maya Moore, however the 2017 All-Star MVP is always in play. Guards perform well against the Liberty, making Lindsay Whalen and Renee Montgomery good value options.
MIN is the best defensive team in the league. Centers and Forwards have the worst usage and points against them. If you want to attack them it will be through the guards. Of the NY Liberty guards, Sugar Rodgers takes the most shots and is the better three-point shooter. She could have a great game like she did the last time they met.
Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings (-6.5, ML: -275) – O/U: -167
This game has the second highest total and it is expected to be somewhat close.
Centers perform well against the Fever. This should be an ideal spot for Courtney Paris, but her lack of minutes recently is troubling. Forwards are average against the Fever, and given Glory Johnson’s elevated price, this could be an easy fade. As for guards, they perform average against the fever given their usage. Look to names like Allisha Gray and Karima Christmas-Kelly to have good games. Skylar Diggins is also in play.
The wings allow a lot of scoring and above average usage to centers, making this a good opportunity for Natalie Anchowa. Dupree could have a good game, but she has come up short too often in good positions that fading her is normally a smart decision. Guards struggle against the Wings in terms of scoring and usage, making it difficult to pick from the Fever’s already weak guard group. Briann January is probably the best choice here.
Seattle Storm @ Los Angeles Sparks (-11, ML: -800) – O/U: 163
-Another game where Vegas is expecting a huge blowout. These two teams played recently and nothing has changed since then, except for the ASB and a chance to mend.
Coming off their first home defeat, the Sparks will be looking to right the ship. The Storm struggle against centers, making Candace Parker a great option here. In the last game, she only played 23 mins and put up 28/26 DK/FD pts. If she plays her usual allotment of minutes, she could have a monster game. Nneka Ogwumike is also in play. Guards perform average against the Storm, Chelsea Gray should be a solid option, especially in cash games.
The LA Sparks are the second best defensive team in the league (there’s a reason Vegas sees a blowout). The SEA Storm have won games this season by scoring a lot, making them capable of finding scoring even against a team that offers such a daunting defensive challenge. The Storm will need Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd, and Sue Bird at their best here to have a chance.
TOP PICKS
Guards:
Elite: Diane Taurasi, Jasmine Thomas, Allisha Gray, Jewell Loyd
Value: Cappie Pondexter (DK only), Shekinna Stricklen, Renee Montgomery, Karima Christmas-Kelly
Forwards:
Elite: Candace Parker, Alyssa Thomas, Breanna Stewart, Sylvia Fowles, Nneka Ogwumike
Value: Camille Little, Natalie Anchowa, Jessica Breland, Courtney Paris
That’s it for today! Let’s go make some money while having fun in the process. Hopefully I’ll see y’all back here for the next slate!