Batters Below – Analytical Approach to Finding Value Hitters for MLB DFS on Tuesday, July 4th

Major League Baseball DFS is all about maximizing your ceiling.  In such a high variance sport it is difficult to provide yourself with a comfortable floor.  For this reason, the focus on raising your scoring potential is the most important aspect of creating a tournament lineup.  To accomplish this we need to be able to play high-upside pitchers with strikeout ability and load up on home-run hitters.  Usually, the more consistent players who are swinging a hot bat are the higher priced players.  In order for us to grab this type of high-upside and more expensive player, we need to fit in a value bat or two.

For the purpose of this article, a value bat will be defined as a player who is under $3,000 on Fanduel or $3,500 on Draftkings. There will be some flexibility with those price points because sometimes the matchup is just too juicy to leave someone out who is so close to our definition.

*Fourth of July Edition will be for Fanduel Only*

Fanduel Value Batters:

  • Stephen Drew (L) SS, $2,300

He will likely start against the Mets right-handed pitcher, Seth Lugo. Drew is hitting over .300 and has a wOBA near .400 against righties. The Nationals have a few players that I can see getting a rest day as most of their starters have been playing for 10+ straight games.

  • Alex Avila (L) C, $3,000

He has a .286 ISO against righties over the past year and a solid .422 wOBA. Over the past two weeks, he has a 68% hard hit rate and a 50% fly ball rate. Matt Cain has been getting tagged hard by opposing hitters and has given up 7 or more hits in seven of the last eight games. He has given up four home runs in the past two games and eight home runs in the past six games. He’s not only one of my favorite value plays but one of my favorite overall plays on the entire slate.

  • Robbie Grossman (S) OF, $2,800

He’s an average hitter who’s very streaky and really hasn’t shown much else in the last two years. He is starting to heat up and batting in the top half of the Twins order. He has a four-game hitting streak with five total hits including two doubles. The opposing pitcher, J.C. Ramirez (R) has given up nine home runs in six games which is another plus for Grossman.

  • Max Kepler (L) OF, $2,600

Max provides us with a nice mini-stack with Grossman. We know Ramirez is giving up a lot of home runs over the past six starts and Kepler is a very good hitter against right-handed pitching (he’s awful against lefties). He has a 44% flyball rate over the past two weeks and could lift one into the seats against Ramirez.

  • Josh Harrison (R) 2B, $2,900

Although he’s a better hitter against lefties he’s been a very good hitter overall on the season. He has three multi-hit games in the past seven games and has been showing some pop with two doubles and a home run during those games. He bats second and if the Pirates can get to Mark Leiter early then Harrison will be a major benefactor.

  • Josh Bell (S) 1B, $2,800

He’s really had a good last couple weeks showing off his power potential. He’s really cheap and always under-owned at the packed first base position. He has three home runs and a double with eight RBI over the past thirteen games. His flyball and hard hit rate are both rising over the past two weeks.

  • Nick Williams (L) OF, $2,400

He’s a top ten prospect for the Phillies and has held his own in his three games this season as he has recorded a hit in each start. He is known for having the perfect blend of power and speed which suit our DFS purpose perfectly. Until his price rises and his ownership is higher I will be locking him in.

  • Eric Sogard (L) 2B, $2,900

The leadoff hitter has hit righties very well all season and he has a .416 wOBA over the last thirty days. The Brewers are projected for 5.5 runs and Sogard should be the table setter.

 

The Padres are all priced at ridiculously low levels on Fanduel and I think some people are going to try to get cute by using one or two of them to save money and spend up at pitcher and across the board with batters. This is a mistake because there is plenty of value at a lot of different positions in the mid to low 2k’s that will suffice and offer more upside than Padres bats against Corey Kluber.

You will want to ensure that these bats are in the lineup using the DFS Army Lineups page prior to the Main Slate lock time.  The Lineups page is filled with individual batter splits and useful information all on one page.  If you use it in conjunction with our Analytics Corner, you will have everything necessary to research the entire slate on just two tabs.  An enormous benefit of joining the DFS Army is the entrance into our slack channel where hundreds of members discuss the slate and provide excellent information for one another.  Our staff routinely have open discussions about the slate for everyone to partake in.  I implore you to take a look if you’re serious about Daily Fantasy Sports.  If you decide to subscribe use promo code “DONUTS” for 20% off the subscription price.

You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I love to interact with my followers and discuss all things sports.

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