Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Blake Snell who ended up with 11.4 DKFP which was good enough for 1.7x value. For our infielder free square, we had Nick Castellanos who ended up with 45.0 DKFP which was good enough for 12.5x value! For our outfielder free square, we had Lorenzo Cain who ended up with 2 DKFP.
Tonight
We have just seven games on the docket for the main slate on this Wednesday night. On the pitching side of things we are led by Zach Greinke, Jacob Degrom, and Gio Gonzalez as the aces of the night. On the hitting side of things we are led by the Orioles, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks as the highest implied totals at the moment. Let’s dive into this short slate:
Free Squares
- Drew Pomeranz SP BOS ($7,200)
- Drew Pomeranz and the Boston Red Sox will take on the Toronto Blue Jays at home at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are currently -130 favorites, and the Blue Jays have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.53 runs. Pomeranz has had a decent year so far this year with just a few slip ups on his record. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers on the year: .369 wOBA given up to lefties, .297 wOBA given up to righties, 25.7 K%, 8.3 BB%, .326 BABIP, 3.91 SIERA, 3.69 xFIP, and a 32.6 Hard%. He will get to face the Toronto Blue Jays who have been averaging right around 4.16 runs per game this season. They have the following numbers vs. left handed pitchers this season: 5th in BB%, 12th in K%, 16th in OPS, 17th in ISO, 15th in wOBA, and 14th in wRC+. The Blue Jays are a middle of the road lineup and I like the affordability fo Pomeranz tonight. Pitching is pretty thin outside of the big aces so for me Pomeranz is the best SP2 option.
- Chris Davis 1B BAL ($3,500)
- Chris Davis and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Texas Rangers and pitcher Martin Perez at Camden Yards tonight. The Orioles have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.55 runs. Davis has been having an okay season but I love his matchup against the lefty Perez tonight. He has the following numbers against left handed pitchers so far this season: 10.8 BB%, 36.6 K%, .782 OPS, .175 ISO, .334 wOBA, 107 wRC+, and a 31.3 Hard%. Perez, on the other hand, has the following numbers vs. left handed batters on the season: .343 wOBA, .47 HR/9, 21.6 K%, 5.7 BB%, 3.11 xFIP, and a 27.0 Hard%. Now Perez has some pretty solid numbers against lefties this season but I think this Orioles team is going to get to him tonight. And while I don’t like taking lefty on lefty matchup Davis has lefties solid this year. He is relatively affordable and has a ton of upside tonight.
- Shin-Soo Choo OF TEX ($3,600)
- Shin-Soo Choo and the Texas Rangers will take on Baltimore Orioles and pitcher Kevin Gausman at Camden Yards tonight. The Rangers have an implied total sitting at right around 4.95 runs. Choo has been having a solid year and has done well against righties on the year. Let;’s take a look at those advanced numbers vs. righties this season for Choo: 12.8 BB%, 20.2 K%, .792 OPS, .183 ISO, .343 wOBA, 110 wRC+, and a 41.9 Hard%. He will take on Kevin Gausman who has the following numbers against left handed bats: .390 wOBA, 1.83 HR/9, 15.5 K%, 6.6 BB%, .341 BABIP, 6.03 xFIP, and a 36.5 Hard%. Gausman has an incredibly high 6.03 xFIP which we will be looking to attack with the Rangers lefties. I love Choo and his potential upside tonight at a very affordable price. He bats at the top of the order which means a ton of opportunity for fantasy production tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
We have a small slate tonight but I think it is a solid slate for tournaments as batter ownership will be pretty spread out. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Red Sox picther Drew Pomeranz tonight! Good luck Army!
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