Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Drew Pomeranz who ended up with 20.20 DKFP which was good enough for 2.8x value! For our infielder free square, we had Chris Davis who ended up with 0 DKFP. For our outfielder free square, we had Shin Soo Choo who ended up with 11.0 DKFP which was good enough for 3.1x value!
Tonight
I am going to be tackling the main slate for tonight in which we only have 5 games on the slate. On the pitching side of things, we do have 3 pitchers who are priced over 10k led by Madison Bumgarner. On the hitting side of things, we are led by the Orioles, Rangers, and Dodgers. Let’s jump right into this short slate:
Free Squares
- Felix Hernandez SP SEA ($7,600)
- Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners will take on the New York Yankees at home at SafeCo field tonight. The Mariners are currently +105 underdogs, and the Yankees have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.11 runs. He is not as dominant as his used to but Felix is coming off of back to back solid starts recently. He has the following advanced numbers so far this year: .375 wOBA given up to lefties, .359 wOBA given up to righties, 21.0 K%, 5.8 BB%, .333 BABIP, 28.9 Hard%, 4.00 SIERA, and a 3.84 xFIP. He will get a matchup tonight against the New York Yankees who have been averaging right around 5.39 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right handed pitching thus far this season: 2nd in BB%, 10th in K%, 3rd in OPS, 8th in ISO, 2nd in wOBA, and 2nd in wRC+. This is isn’t the greatest matchup in the world for Hernandez but in such a small slate SP2 is kind of a dumpster fire tonight. I think at the price and potential upside despite the matchup I think Felix can still have a solid outing. He is my favorite SP2 on Draftkings tonight.
- Mike Moustakas 3B KC ($3,400)
- Mike Moustakas and Kansas City Royals will take on the Detroit Tigers and pitcher Michael Fulmer tonight at Kaufman Field. The Royals have an implied run total sitting at right around: 4.41 runs. Moustakas has been having a solid year this year and has shown a ton of power this year. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitching this season: 5.1 BB%, 16.3 K%, .875 OPS, .282 ISO, .268 BABIP, .361 wOBA, 124 wRC+, and a 35.8 Hard%. A very solid stat line for Moustakas this year. He will be taking on Michael Fulmer who has the following numbers vs. left handed bats: .264 wOBA, 20.2 K%, 5.9 BB%, .281 BABIP, 3.95 xFIP, and a 32.2 Hard%. Fulmer is a solid pitcher but I like Moustakas price tonight and he has shown he can crush all righties this season. He makes a great infielder one off for me tonight.
- Adam Jones OF BAL ($3,700)
- Adam Jones and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Texas Rangers and pitcher Cole Hamels at home in Camden Yards tonight. The Orioles have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.00 runs. Jones is having a pretty solid season so far and has played well in his last few games. He has the following advanced numbers against left handed pitching on the season: 6.6 BB%, 23.6 K%, .669 OPS, .125 ISO, .290 wOBA, 76 wRC+, and a 27.8 Hard%. He will get to take on Cole Hamels who has the following numbers against righties on the season: .289 wOBA, .96 HR/9, 14.1 K%, 9.2 BB%, .231 BABIP, 5.02 xFIP, and a 38.9 Hard%. This is a good matchup for Adam Jones and the rest of the Orioles tonight. I think the Orioles may be one of the highest owned stacks tonight and I love Jones leading that stack. He also makes a solid play with a lot of upside as a one off tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Kind of a dumpster fire slate tonight but I still think we can have some success with tournaments. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Orioles outfielder Adam Jones tonight! Good luck Army!
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